Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor Prediction

Süper Lig · Regular Season - 6

Post on X

Samsunspor

Away

AI call Erzurumspor FK or draw

37%

31%

32%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor prediction: Sportiko gives Erzurumspor FK a 37% chance of winning, Samsunspor 32% and the draw 31%. Last updated 20 Sep 2026, 15:54.

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Home to Score 72%
2nd Half Over 0.5 72%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%

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Timeline

Miguel Cardoso Yellow Card

18' ▮

Elisha Owusu Yellow Card

33' ▮

Miguel Cardoso

45' ⚽ 1–0

HT 1–0

⇄ 46'

Saikuba Jarju ⇄ Tanguy Coulibaly

Martín Rodríguez ⇄ Sefa Akgün

57' ⇄

▮ 64'

Samed Onur Yellow Card

⇄ 65'

Elliot Watt ⇄ Antoine Sekongo

Eren Tozlu ⇄ Gyrano Kerk

66' ⇄

Miguel Cardoso ⇄ Ibrahim Diabaté

66' ⇄

Brandon Baiye Yellow Card

77' ▮

⇄ 79'

Samed Onur ⇄ Yalçın Kayan

Orhan Ovacıklı ⇄ Festy Ebosele

81' ⇄

▮ 86'

Emre Kılınç Yellow Card

FT 1–0

Erzurumspor FK

Match Stats

Samsunspor

43% Ball Possession 57%

0.77 Expected Goals (xG) 0.40

8 Total Shots 8

2 Shots on Goal 2

4 Shots off Goal 6

2 Blocked Shots 0

6 Shots insidebox 2

2 Shots outsidebox 6

3 Corner Kicks 5

0 Offsides 2

7 Fouls 10

3 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

2 Goalkeeper Saves 1

405 Total passes 553

334 Passes accurate 481

82% Passes % 87%

-0.66 goals_prevented -0.66

Erzurumspor FK

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
20 Miguel Cardoso M	7.6	66'	1	–	1	27 (25%)	1
4 Amar Gerxhaliu D	7.3	89'	–	–	–	50 (44%)	2
53 Orhan Ovacıklı D	7.2	82'	–	–	–	36 (27%)	–
18 Nihad Mujakić D	6.9	89'	–	–	1	43 (39%)	2
6 Brandon Baiye M	6.9	89'	–	–	–	39 (36%)	5
42 Elisha Owusu M	6.7	89'	–	–	–	34 (29%)	–
19 Ibrahim Diabaté F	6.7	23'	–	–	2	2 (2%)	–
10 Eren Tozlu F	6.7	66'	–	–	1	22 (17%)	1
9 Gyrano Kerk F	6.7	23'	–	–	–	6 (5%)	–
15 Guram Giorbelidze D	6.5	89'	–	–	–	39 (32%)	1
1 Ertuğrul Taşkıran G	6.3	89'	–	–	–	34 (18%)	–
65 Martín Rodríguez M	6.3	57'	–	–	–	29 (24%)	–
8 Sefa Akgün M	6.3	32'	–	–	1	12 (10%)	–
22 Mustafa Yumlu D	6.3	89'	–	–	–	31 (26%)	1
2 Festy Ebosele D	—	7'	–	–	–	1	–

Samsunspor

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
20 Yalçın Kayan M	7.2	10'	–	–	–	9 (9%)	–
5 Celil Yüksel M	6.9	89'	–	–	2	51 (41%)	–
16 Strahinja Eraković D	6.9	89'	–	–	–	74 (70%)	1
34 Gabriele Guarino D	6.9	89'	–	–	1	74 (70%)	2
4 Elliot Watt M	6.7	65'	–	–	–	65 (58%)	–
10 Tanguy Coulibaly F	6.7	44'	–	–	–	25 (23%)	1
8 Samed Onur M	6.6	79'	–	–	2	62 (54%)	1
30 Saikuba Jarju F	6.5	45'	–	–	–	9 (7%)	–
1 Okan Kocuk G	6.3	89'	–	–	–	24 (18%)	–
42 Antoine Sekongo M	6.3	24'	–	–	–	13 (12%)	–
2 Josafat Mendes D	6.2	89'	–	–	1	33 (29%)	2
18 Mohamed Bayo F	6.2	89'	–	–	1	14 (10%)	–
11 Emre Kılınç F	6.2	89'	–	–	–	45 (34%)	–
17 Logi Tomasson D	6.0	89'	–	–	1	55 (46%)	–

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Confidence Low (37%)

At a glance

Our lean

Erzurumspor FK or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.7%

Both teams to score

51%

Over 2.5 goals

44%

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Erzurumspor FK

WLWDL

Samsunspor

LLLLW

Match summary

In the upcoming Süper Lig match, Erzurumspor FK will face Samsunspor. Erzurumspor has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2 goals per match in their last five encounters, while Samsunspor's attack has shown promise, scoring 8 goals in the same period. The key matchup will be Erzurumspor's defense against Samsunspor's forward line, which includes a potent striker. Given the current form, both teams will be eager for points, making this a crucial fixture in their campaigns.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

37%

10%

Draw

31%

45%

Away

32%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Samsunspor goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	11	9	6	2	1
1	9	15	8	3	1
2	7	8	5	2	1
3	3	3	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Erzurumspor FK goals · most likely 1–1 (14.7%)

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Match Result

Home Win

37%

Away Win

32%

Draw

31%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS Yes 49% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

29%

1.5

71%

56%

2.5

44%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

37%

Away Win

32%

Draw

31%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

53% Home (No Draw) 47% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

17% Home Win by 2+ 14% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

37% Home Scores More 32% Away Scores More 31% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

29%

1.5

71%

56%

2.5

44%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS Yes 49% BTTS No

Exact Goals

11%

18%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.5%	8.6%	6.1%	2.4%	0.7%
1	9.4%	14.7%	7.6%	3.0%	0.9%
2	7.0%	8.2%	4.8%	1.9%	0.6%
3	2.9%	3.5%	2.0%	0.8%	0.2%
4	0.9%	1.1%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

35%

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

28%

32%

25%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Erzurumspor FK	Draw	Samsunspor
Erzurumspor FK	23.8%	5.3%	2.2%
Draw	12.7%	19.8%	14.1%
Samsunspor	1.4%	3.6%	17.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

96%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

28%

36%

23%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

31%

36%

21%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

62%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

85%

1.5

15%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Erzurumspor FK — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Samsunspor	W	1 - 0
11 Sep	A Beşiktaş	L	3 - 0
05 Sep	H Konyaspor	W	1 - 0
28 Aug	A Gençlerbirliği S.K.	D	1 - 1
21 Aug	H Galatasaray	L	0 - 4

Samsunspor — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Erzurumspor FK	L	1 - 0
12 Sep	H Çorum FK	L	1 - 5
06 Sep	A Kocaelispor	L	1 - 0
30 Aug	H Fenerbahçe	L	0 - 2
22 Aug	A Rizespor	W	0 - 2

Süper Lig Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Amed	6	4	1	1	15	7	+8	13
2	Galatasaray	6	4	1	1	13	10	+3	13
3	Beşiktaş	6	4	0	2	14	7	+7	12
4	Kocaelispor	6	4	0	2	7	4	+3	12
5	Alanyaspor	6	3	2	1	8	6	+2	11
6	Fenerbahçe	6	3	1	2	16	6	+10	10
7	Trabzonspor	6	3	1	2	13	5	+8	10
8	Kasımpaşa	6	2	4	0	7	5	+2	10
9	Rizespor	6	3	1	2	7	6	+1	10
10	Gaziantep FK	6	2	2	2	7	7	0	8
11	Çorum FK	6	2	1	3	13	12	+1	7
12	Başakşehir	6	2	1	3	10	11	-1	7
13	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	6	2	1	3	5	13	-8	7
14	Erzurumspor FK	6	2	1	3	3	11	-8	7
15	Konyaspor	6	1	1	4	4	8	-4	4
16	Samsunspor	6	1	1	4	6	12	-6	4
17	Göztepe	6	0	3	3	11	15	-4	3
18	Eyüpspor	6	1	0	5	2	16	-14	3

Samsunspor

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Thorsten Fink

1 Kocuk

17 Tomasson

34 Guarino

16 Eraković

2 Mendes

4 Watt

5 Yüksel

11 Kılınç

8 Onur

30 Jarju

18 Bayo

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Okan Kocuk	G
2	Josafat Mendes	D
16	Strahinja Eraković	D
34	Gabriele Guarino	D
17	Logi Tomasson	D
5	Celil Yüksel	M
4	Elliot Watt	M
30	Saikuba Jarju	M
8	Samed Onur	M
11	Emre Kılınç	M
18	Mohamed Bayo	F

Substitutes

25	Bilal Bayazit	G
13	Efe Yiğit Üstün	G
22	Yunus Emre Çift	D
3	Igor Drapiński	D
23	Enes Albak	D
29	Haluk Mustafa Tan	D
20	Yalçın Kayan	M
10	Tanguy Coulibaly	F
42	Antoine Sekongo	M

Erzurumspor FK

Formation: 5-4-1 Coach: Serkan Ozbalta

1 Taşkıran

15 Giorbelidze

18 Mujakić

22 Yumlu

4 Gerxhaliu

53 Ovacıklı

20 Cardoso

6 Baiye

42 Owusu

65 Rodríguez

10 Tozlu

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Ertuğrul Taşkıran	G
53	Orhan Ovacıklı	D
4	Amar Gerxhaliu	D
22	Mustafa Yumlu	D
18	Nihad Mujakić	D
15	Guram Giorbelidze	D
65	Martín Rodríguez	M
42	Elisha Owusu	M
6	Brandon Baiye	M
20	Miguel Cardoso	M
10	Eren Tozlu	F

Substitutes

31	Matija Orbanić	G
2	Festy Ebosele	D
3	Yakup Kırtay	D
23	Cengizhan Bayrak	D
77	Lawrence Agyekum	M
99	Mustafa Fettahoglu	F
8	Sefa Akgün	M
90	Nariman Akhundzade	F
19	Ibrahim Diabaté	F
9	Gyrano Kerk	F