Nacional vs Arouca Prediction

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 27

21 Mar 2027, 16:00

Post on X

Arouca

Away

AI call Nacional or draw

37%

32%

31%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Nacional vs Arouca prediction: Sportiko gives Nacional a 37% chance of winning, Arouca 31% and the draw 32%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 15%

Both teams to score

47%

Over 2.5 goals

39%

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Nacional

LLLLL

Arouca

DLDWL

Last 3 meetings Nacional · 0W 0D 3L

Match summary

In the upcoming Primeira Liga match, Nacional faces Arouca, with both teams looking to secure crucial points. Nacional has shown a solid home record, scoring an average of 1.8 goals per game while conceding 1.2. Arouca, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, averaging just 0.9 goals scored per match. With Nacional's stronger attacking metrics and Arouca's defensive vulnerabilities, this matchup could tilt in favor of the home side, especially if Nacional capitalizes on their scoring opportunities. However, Arouca's resilience cannot be underestimated, as they have occasionally pulled off surprise results against higher-ranked teams.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Arouca goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	12	9	6	2	1
1	11	15	7	2	1
2	8	8	4	1
3	3	3	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Nacional goals · most likely 1–1 (15.0%)

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Players in form

Nacional

No scorer data.

Arouca

Barbero 4 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

32%

Away Win

31%

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS No 47% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

32%

1.5

68%

61%

2.5

39%

81%

3.5

19%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

32%

Away Win

31%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

55% Home (No Draw) 45% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

17% Home Win by 2+ 12% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

37% Home Scores More 32% Equal Goals 31% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

32%

1.5

68%

61%

2.5

39%

81%

3.5

19%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS No 47% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

20%

28%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.2%	9.4%	5.9%	2.1%	0.6%
1	10.8%	15.0%	7.1%	2.5%	0.7%
2	7.5%	8.0%	4.2%	1.5%	0.4%
3	3.0%	3.2%	1.7%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.9%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

72%

1.5

28%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

37%

34%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Nacional	Draw	Arouca
Nacional	22.1%	4.3%	1.5%
Draw	14.8%	21.3%	12.4%
Arouca	1.7%	4.3%	17.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

66%

1.5

34%

88%

2.5

12%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

30%

36%

22%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

90%

1.5

10%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

35%

37%

19%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

62%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Nacional vs Arouca

0 Nacional Wins

0 Draws

3 Arouca Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
21 Feb 2026	Arouca	3 - 0	Nacional
20 Sep 2025	Nacional	1 - 2	Arouca
01 Feb 2025	Nacional	1 - 2	Arouca

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Nacional — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Famalicao	L	0 - 4
12 Sep	H Alverca	L	1 - 3
05 Sep	A Sporting CP	L	2 - 0
30 Aug	H Estrela	L	2 - 3
23 Aug	A Vitória SC	L	1 - 0

Arouca — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Sporting CP	D	2 - 2
13 Sep	H Santa Clara	L	1 - 2
07 Sep	A Estoril	D	0 - 0
29 Aug	H Maritimo	W	2 - 1
23 Aug	A FC Porto	L	2 - 0

Primeira Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18	3	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22	7	+15	16
3	Sporting CP	7	4	3	0	17	8	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11	4	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10	7	+3	11
6	SC Braga	6	3	2	1	7	5	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9	9	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14	14	0	10
9	GIL Vicente	6	2	2	2	5	5	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9	11	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8	12	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8	14	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9	7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	1	2	4	5	8	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7	15	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5	15	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3	16	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3	10	-7	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.