Nacional vs Rio Ave Prediction

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 25

07 Mar 2027, 16:00

Post on X

Rio Ave

Away

AI call Difficult Rio Ave win or draw

11%

28%

60%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Nacional vs Rio Ave prediction: Sportiko gives Nacional a 11% chance of winning, Rio Ave 60% and the draw 28%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

0:1 · 18.3%

Both teams to score

33%

Over 2.5 goals

33%

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Nacional

LLLLL

Rio Ave

LDLLW

Last 3 meetings Nacional · 1W 2D 0L

Match summary

Nacional will face Rio Ave in an important Primeira Liga clash. Historically, Nacional has shown a strong home record, which could play a crucial role in their performance. However, Rio Ave has demonstrated resilience in away matches, often capitalizing on counter-attacks. Both teams will be looking to secure vital points to improve their standings, making this match pivotal for their respective campaigns. Key players to watch will include Nacional's attacking threats and Rio Ave's solid defensive line.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

11%

45%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

60%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Rio Ave goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	14	18	15	8	3	1
1	6	12	8	4	2
2	2	3	2	1
3
4
5

↑ Nacional goals · most likely 0–1 (18.3%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

60%

Draw

28%

Home Win

11%

Both Teams To Score

67% BTTS No 33% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

38%

1.5

62%

67%

2.5

33%

85%

3.5

15%

95%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

60%

Draw

28%

Home Win

11%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

84% Away (No Draw) 16% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

33% Away Win by 2+ 3% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

60% Away Scores More 28% Equal Goals 11% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

38%

1.5

62%

67%

2.5

33%

85%

3.5

15%

95%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

67% BTTS No 33% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

14%

24%

29%

19%

10%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	14.3%	18.3%	14.9%	7.6%	2.9%
1	5.5%	11.8%	7.9%	4.0%	1.5%
2	1.8%	2.8%	2.1%	1.1%	0.4%
3	0.3%	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%
4	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

76%

1.5

24%

93%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

41%

35%

18%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

68%

1.5

32%

89%

2.5

11%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

33%

34%

22%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Nacional	Draw	Rio Ave
Nacional	6.2%	3.0%	1.6%
Draw	5.4%	20.6%	22.3%
Rio Ave	0.5%	2.9%	37.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

98%

2.5

100%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

59%

31%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

79%

0.5

21%

98%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

75%

0.5

25%

97%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

55%

1.5

45%

81%

2.5

19%

94%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

22%

33%

25%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Nacional vs Rio Ave

1 Nacional Wins

2 Draws

0 Rio Ave Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
25 Jan 2026	Nacional	4 - 0	Rio Ave
17 Aug 2025	Rio Ave	1 - 1	Nacional
10 May 2025	Nacional	3 - 3	Rio Ave

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Nacional — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Famalicao	L	0 - 4
12 Sep	H Alverca	L	1 - 3
05 Sep	A Sporting CP	L	2 - 0
30 Aug	H Estrela	L	2 - 3
23 Aug	A Vitória SC	L	1 - 0

Rio Ave — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Alverca	L	1 - 0
14 Sep	H Estrela	D	3 - 3
06 Sep	A Santa Clara	L	4 - 0
28 Aug	H Sporting CP	L	0 - 4
22 Aug	A Estoril	W	0 - 2

Primeira Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18	3	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22	7	+15	16
3	Sporting CP	7	4	3	0	17	8	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11	4	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10	7	+3	11
6	SC Braga	6	3	2	1	7	5	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9	9	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14	14	0	10
9	GIL Vicente	6	2	2	2	5	5	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9	11	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8	12	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8	14	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9	7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	1	2	4	5	8	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7	15	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5	15	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3	16	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3	10	-7	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.