Estoril vs Nacional Prediction

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 19

24 Jan 2027, 16:00

Post on X

Nacional

Away

Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril

AI call Estoril to win or draw

73%

23%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Estoril vs Nacional prediction: Sportiko gives Estoril a 73% chance of winning, Nacional 5% and the draw 23%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:0 · 21.9%

Both teams to score

22%

Over 2.5 goals

33%

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Estoril

LLDLL

Nacional

LLLLL

Last 3 meetings Estoril · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

Estoril faces Nacional in a Primeira Liga clash that promises to be competitive. Estoril has shown solid form at home this season, capitalizing on their attacking prowess, averaging 1.6 goals per game. Nacional, on the other hand, has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.1 goals per game in recent matches. Given the statistical trends, Estoril will likely look to exploit Nacional’s defensive vulnerabilities while aiming to maintain their own defensive stability. This matchup could be pivotal for both teams as they seek crucial points in the league standings.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Nacional goals →

	0	1	2
0	14	3	1
1	22	8	1
2	20	6	1
3	12	3	1
4	5	2
5	2	1

↑ Estoril goals · most likely 1–0 (21.8%)

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Match Result

Home Win

73%

Draw

23%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

78% BTTS No 22% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

39%

1.5

61%

67%

2.5

33%

86%

3.5

14%

95%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

73%

Draw

23%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

94% Home (No Draw) 6% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

44% Home Win by 2+ 1% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

73% Home Scores More 23% Equal Goals 5% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

39%

1.5

61%

67%

2.5

33%

86%

3.5

14%

95%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

78% BTTS No 22% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

14%

25%

28%

19%

10%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	13.9%	3.0%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
1	21.9%	7.7%	1.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2	19.9%	6.0%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	11.6%	3.5%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
4	5.1%	1.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

76%

1.5

24%

93%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

40%

36%

18%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

33%

35%

21%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Estoril	Draw	Nacional
Estoril	47.4%	1.7%	0.2%
Draw	25.0%	17.7%	2.5%
Nacional	1.2%	1.8%	2.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

48%

1.5

52%

75%

2.5

25%

91%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

18%

31%

27%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

81%

1.5

19%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

74%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

87%

0.5

13%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

85%

0.5

15%

99%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Estoril vs Nacional

1 Estoril Wins

1 Draws

1 Nacional Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
16 Aug 2026	Nacional	2 - 0	Estoril
15 Mar 2026	Nacional	0 - 1	Estoril
26 Oct 2025	Estoril	1 - 1	Nacional

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Estoril — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Casa Pia	L	1 - 2
14 Sep	A SC Braga	L	1 - 0
07 Sep	H Arouca	D	0 - 0
31 Aug	A Benfica	L	2 - 1
22 Aug	H Rio Ave	L	0 - 2

Nacional — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Famalicao	L	0 - 4
12 Sep	H Alverca	L	1 - 3
05 Sep	A Sporting CP	L	2 - 0
30 Aug	H Estrela	L	2 - 3
23 Aug	A Vitória SC	L	1 - 0

Primeira Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18	3	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22	7	+15	16
3	Sporting CP	7	4	3	0	17	8	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11	4	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10	7	+3	11
6	SC Braga	6	3	2	1	7	5	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9	9	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14	14	0	10
9	GIL Vicente	6	2	2	2	5	5	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9	11	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8	12	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8	14	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9	7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	1	2	4	5	8	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7	15	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5	15	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3	16	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3	10	-7	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.