Moreirense vs Arouca Prediction

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 19

24 Jan 2027, 16:00

Post on X

Arouca

Away

AI call Moreirense to win or draw

67%

24%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Moreirense vs Arouca prediction: Sportiko gives Moreirense a 67% chance of winning, Arouca 9% and the draw 24%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:0 · 17%

Both teams to score

34%

Over 2.5 goals

40%

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Moreirense

DWLLW

Arouca

DLDWL

Last 3 meetings Moreirense · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

In this Primeira Liga matchup, Moreirense will face Arouca with both teams aiming to secure valuable points. Moreirense has shown inconsistency this season, currently sitting in the lower half of the table, while Arouca has displayed resilience and a stronger performance overall. Key players to watch include Moreirense's attacking threats and Arouca's solid defensive line. The outcome will likely hinge on Moreirense's ability to convert chances against Arouca's disciplined defense, making this a crucial clash for both teams in their pursuit of league stability.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

67%

45%

Draw

24%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Arouca goals →

	0	1	2
0	11	4	1
1	17	10	2
2	16	8	2
3	10	5	1
4	4	2	1
5	2	1

↑ Moreirense goals · most likely 1–0 (17.0%)

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Players in form

Moreirense

No scorer data.

Arouca

Barbero 4 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

67%

Draw

24%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

66% BTTS No 34% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

32%

1.5

68%

60%

2.5

40%

81%

3.5

19%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

67%

Draw

24%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

88% Home (No Draw) 12% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

40% Home Win by 2+ 2% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

67% Home Scores More 24% Equal Goals 9% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

32%

1.5

68%

60%

2.5

40%

81%

3.5

19%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

66% BTTS No 34% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

21%

28%

20%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.4%	4.0%	1.3%	0.2%	0.0%
1	17.0%	10.5%	2.4%	0.4%	0.1%
2	16.2%	8.3%	2.1%	0.4%	0.1%
3	9.6%	4.9%	1.3%	0.2%	0.0%
4	4.3%	2.2%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

72%

1.5

28%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

37%

35%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

29%

34%

24%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Moreirense	Draw	Arouca
Moreirense	43.5%	2.6%	0.4%
Draw	23.0%	17.2%	4.2%
Arouca	1.8%	2.7%	4.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

47%

1.5

53%

74%

2.5

26%

90%

3.5

10%

Home Exact Goals

17%

30%

27%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

81%

1.5

19%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

74%

1.5

26%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

60%

0.5

40%

91%

1.5

98%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

60%

31%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

79%

0.5

21%

98%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

76%

0.5

24%

97%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Moreirense vs Arouca

1 Moreirense Wins

0 Draws

2 Arouca Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
16 Aug 2026	Arouca	4 - 0	Moreirense
21 Mar 2026	Moreirense	0 - 1	Arouca
02 Nov 2025	Arouca	0 - 2	Moreirense

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Moreirense — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Vitória SC	D	1 - 1
14 Sep	H Maritimo	W	3 - 1
09 Sep	H Benfica	L	0 - 4
04 Sep	A FC Porto	L	2 - 1
30 Aug	A Casa Pia	W	0 - 1

Arouca — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Sporting CP	D	2 - 2
13 Sep	H Santa Clara	L	1 - 2
07 Sep	A Estoril	D	0 - 0
29 Aug	H Maritimo	W	2 - 1
23 Aug	A FC Porto	L	2 - 0

Primeira Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18	3	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22	7	+15	16
3	Sporting CP	7	4	3	0	17	8	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11	4	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10	7	+3	11
6	SC Braga	6	3	2	1	7	5	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9	9	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14	14	0	10
9	GIL Vicente	6	2	2	2	5	5	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9	11	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8	12	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8	14	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9	7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	1	2	4	5	8	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7	15	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5	15	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3	16	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3	10	-7	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.