Arouca vs Casa Pia Prediction

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 15

20 Dec 2026, 16:00

Post on X

Casa Pia

Away

AI call Arouca or draw

46%

33%

22%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Arouca vs Casa Pia prediction: Sportiko gives Arouca a 46% chance of winning, Casa Pia 22% and the draw 33%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:0 · 14.6%

Both teams to score

41%

Over 2.5 goals

34%

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Arouca

DLDWL

Casa Pia

WLDLL

Last 3 meetings Arouca · 0W 1D 2L

Match summary

Arouca faces Casa Pia in a Primeira Liga matchup that promises to be competitive. Arouca has shown a solid defensive record, conceding an average of 1.2 goals per match this season, while Casa Pia has struggled to score, averaging only 0.9 goals per game. Both teams will look to capitalize on set pieces, with Arouca leveraging their height advantage in the box. Key players to watch include Arouca's top scorer, who has netted 6 goals this season, and Casa Pia's playmaker, whose creativity is crucial for breaking down defenses. The match will be pivotal for both sides as they aim for mid-table stability.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Casa Pia goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	14	8	4	1
1	15	14	5	1
2	10	8	3	1
3	4	3	1
4	1	1
5

↑ Arouca goals · most likely 1–0 (14.6%)

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Players in form

Arouca

Barbero 4 gls

Casa Pia

No scorer data.

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

33%

Away Win

22%

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS No 41% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

37%

1.5

63%

66%

2.5

34%

85%

3.5

15%

94%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

33%

Away Win

22%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

68% Home (No Draw) 32% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

22% Home Win by 2+ 7% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

46% Home Scores More 33% Equal Goals 22% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

37%

1.5

63%

66%

2.5

34%

85%

3.5

15%

94%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS No 41% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

14%

23%

29%

19%

10%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	14.4%	8.4%	4.0%	1.1%	0.2%
1	14.6%	14.5%	5.1%	1.3%	0.3%
2	10.3%	8.1%	3.2%	0.9%	0.2%
3	4.4%	3.4%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%
4	1.4%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

75%

1.5

25%

93%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

41%

35%

18%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

33%

34%

22%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Arouca	Draw	Casa Pia
Arouca	27.6%	3.9%	1.0%
Draw	18.0%	22.7%	9.6%
Casa Pia	1.7%	3.8%	11.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

96%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

28%

36%

23%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

84%

1.5

16%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

81%

1.5

19%

95%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

45%

36%

14%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

70%

0.5

30%

95%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

93%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Arouca vs Casa Pia

0 Arouca Wins

1 Draws

2 Casa Pia Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
14 Feb 2026	Casa Pia	3 - 2	Arouca
14 Sep 2025	Arouca	0 - 2	Casa Pia
04 May 2025	Arouca	0 - 0	Casa Pia

See all 8 meetings — Premium

Arouca — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Sporting CP	D	2 - 2
13 Sep	H Santa Clara	L	1 - 2
07 Sep	A Estoril	D	0 - 0
29 Aug	H Maritimo	W	2 - 1
23 Aug	A FC Porto	L	2 - 0

Casa Pia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Estoril	W	1 - 2
12 Sep	H FC Porto	L	1 - 4
06 Sep	A Vitória SC	D	0 - 0
30 Aug	H Moreirense	L	0 - 1
24 Aug	A GIL Vicente	L	2 - 0

Primeira Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18	3	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22	7	+15	16
3	Sporting CP	7	4	3	0	17	8	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11	4	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10	7	+3	11
6	SC Braga	6	3	2	1	7	5	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9	9	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14	14	0	10
9	GIL Vicente	6	2	2	2	5	5	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9	11	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8	12	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8	14	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9	7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	1	2	4	5	8	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7	15	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5	15	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3	16	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3	10	-7	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.