Nacional vs Moreirense Prediction

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 15

20 Dec 2026, 16:00

Post on X

Moreirense

Away

AI call Moreirense or draw

22%

31%

47%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Nacional vs Moreirense prediction: Sportiko gives Nacional a 22% chance of winning, Moreirense 47% and the draw 31%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.4%

Both teams to score

44%

Over 2.5 goals

37%

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Nacional

LLLLL

Moreirense

DWLLW

Last 3 meetings Nacional · 1W 2D 0L

Match summary

Nacional faces Moreirense in a crucial Primeira Liga clash. Nacional has shown solid form at home, with a win rate of 60% in their last 10 league matches. Moreirense, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, securing only 30% of possible points away from home this season. Key players to watch include Nacional's leading goal scorer, who has netted 8 goals thus far, and Moreirense's playmaker, who averages 2 key passes per match. This matchup could hinge on Nacional's ability to capitalize on their scoring opportunities against a Moreirense defense that has conceded an average of 1.5 goals per game away.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

22%

45%

Draw

31%

45%

Away

47%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Moreirense goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	13	13	10	5	2
1	8	14	9	4	1
2	4	5	4	2	1
3	1	1	1
4
5

↑ Nacional goals · most likely 1–1 (14.4%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

47%

Draw

31%

Home Win

22%

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS No 44% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

34%

1.5

66%

63%

2.5

37%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

47%

Draw

31%

Home Win

22%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

68% Away (No Draw) 32% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

23% Away Win by 2+ 7% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

47% Away Scores More 31% Equal Goals 22% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

34%

1.5

66%

63%

2.5

37%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS No 44% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

13%

21%

29%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.9%	13.5%	10.2%	4.6%	1.6%
1	7.8%	14.4%	8.6%	3.9%	1.3%
2	4.0%	5.4%	3.6%	1.6%	0.6%
3	1.1%	1.5%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%
4	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

38%

35%

19%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

65%

1.5

35%

88%

2.5

12%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Nacional	Draw	Moreirense
Nacional	12.2%	4.0%	1.8%
Draw	9.3%	21.3%	17.9%
Moreirense	1.1%	3.9%	28.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

95%

2.5

99%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

43%

36%

15%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

68%

0.5

32%

94%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

37%

92%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

61%

1.5

39%

85%

2.5

15%

95%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

26%

35%

24%

11%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Nacional vs Moreirense

1 Nacional Wins

2 Draws

0 Moreirense Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
07 Mar 2026	Moreirense	1 - 1	Nacional
04 Oct 2025	Nacional	3 - 2	Moreirense
27 Apr 2025	Moreirense	1 - 1	Nacional

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Nacional — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Famalicao	L	0 - 4
12 Sep	H Alverca	L	1 - 3
05 Sep	A Sporting CP	L	2 - 0
30 Aug	H Estrela	L	2 - 3
23 Aug	A Vitória SC	L	1 - 0

Moreirense — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Vitória SC	D	1 - 1
14 Sep	H Maritimo	W	3 - 1
09 Sep	H Benfica	L	0 - 4
04 Sep	A FC Porto	L	2 - 1
30 Aug	A Casa Pia	W	0 - 1

Primeira Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18	3	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22	7	+15	16
3	Sporting CP	7	4	3	0	17	8	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11	4	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10	7	+3	11
6	SC Braga	6	3	2	1	7	5	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9	9	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14	14	0	10
9	GIL Vicente	6	2	2	2	5	5	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9	11	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8	12	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8	14	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9	7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	1	2	4	5	8	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7	15	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5	15	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3	16	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3	10	-7	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.