FC Porto vs Estrela Prediction

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 14

13 Dec 2026, 16:00

Post on X

Estrela

Away

AI call FC Porto or draw

49%

28%

24%

Home Win Draw Away Win

FC Porto vs Estrela prediction: Sportiko gives FC Porto a 49% chance of winning, Estrela 24% and the draw 28%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.3%

Both teams to score

54%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

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FC Porto

WWLWW

Estrela

LDWDW

Last 3 meetings FC Porto · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

FC Porto enters this match as one of the top contenders in the Primeira Liga, boasting a strong home record and a high-scoring attack. They have averaged 2.4 goals per game this season, with a robust defense conceding only 0.9 goals per match. In contrast, Estrela has struggled to maintain consistency, often finding it challenging to secure points against top-tier opponents, averaging 1.1 goals scored per game. Given Porto's superior form and squad depth, they will likely dominate possession and create more scoring opportunities. This matchup may heavily favor Porto unless Estrela can execute a disciplined defensive strategy and capitalize on any counter-attacking chances.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Estrela goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	6	4	1
1	10	13	6	2	1
2	9	10	5	2
3	5	5	3	1
4	2	2	1
5	1	1

↑ FC Porto goals · most likely 1–1 (13.3%)

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Players in form

FC Porto

Gabri Veiga 4 gls

Borja Sainz 3 gls

André Silva 3 gls

William 2 gls

Estrela

A. Marcus 4 gls

L. Antonetti 4 gls

I. Stoica 4 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

28%

Away Win

24%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

24%

1.5

76%

50%

2.5

50%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

28%

Away Win

24%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

67% Home (No Draw) 33% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

26% Home Win by 2+ 9% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

49% Home Scores More 28% Equal Goals 24% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

24%

1.5

76%

50%

2.5

50%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Exact Goals

15%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.3%	5.7%	3.9%	1.4%	0.4%
1	9.5%	13.3%	6.3%	2.3%	0.6%
2	9.0%	9.6%	5.2%	1.8%	0.5%
3	4.9%	5.2%	2.8%	1.0%	0.3%
4	2.0%	2.1%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

65%

1.5

35%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

55%

1.5

45%

81%

2.5

19%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

24%

31%

27%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	FC Porto	Draw	Estrela
FC Porto	29.7%	4.1%	1.4%
Draw	17.6%	17.3%	9.2%
Estrela	2.6%	4.4%	13.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

52%

1.5

48%

78%

2.5

22%

92%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

20%

32%

26%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

34%

37%

20%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: FC Porto vs Estrela

2 FC Porto Wins

0 Draws

1 Estrela Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
26 Apr 2026	Estrela	1 - 2	FC Porto
15 Dec 2025	FC Porto	3 - 1	Estrela
26 Apr 2025	Estrela	2 - 0	FC Porto

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FC Porto — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Benfica	W	3 - 1
12 Sep	A Casa Pia	W	1 - 4
08 Sep	H Manchester City	L	0 - 2
04 Sep	H Moreirense	W	2 - 1
29 Aug	A Academico Viseu	W	0 - 3

Estrela — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Academico Viseu	L	0 - 2
14 Sep	A Rio Ave	D	3 - 3
10 Sep	H SC Braga	W	2 - 1
05 Sep	H Famalicao	D	2 - 2
30 Aug	A Nacional	W	2 - 3

Primeira Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18	3	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22	7	+15	16
3	Sporting CP	7	4	3	0	17	8	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11	4	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10	7	+3	11
6	SC Braga	6	3	2	1	7	5	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9	9	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14	14	0	10
9	GIL Vicente	6	2	2	2	5	5	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9	11	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8	12	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8	14	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9	7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	1	2	4	5	8	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7	15	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5	15	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3	16	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3	10	-7	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.