Rio Ave vs Casa Pia Prediction

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 13

06 Dec 2026, 16:00

Post on X

Casa Pia

Away

AI call Rio Ave to win or draw

73%

22%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Rio Ave vs Casa Pia prediction: Sportiko gives Rio Ave a 73% chance of winning, Casa Pia 5% and the draw 22%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:0 · 21.5%

Both teams to score

22%

Over 2.5 goals

34%

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Rio Ave

LDLLW

Casa Pia

WLDLL

Last 3 meetings Rio Ave · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Primeira Liga clash, Rio Ave faces Casa Pia, both teams looking to solidify their positions in the league. Rio Ave has demonstrated a solid home record, averaging 1.5 goals per match this season, while their defense has conceded 1.2 goals per game. Casa Pia, on the other hand, has shown resilience away from home, maintaining a strong midfield presence with a possession rate of 54%. Key players to watch include Rio Ave's top scorer, who has netted 6 goals this season, versus Casa Pia's solid backline that has recorded 4 clean sheets. The match is set to be competitive, with both teams vying for crucial points.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Casa Pia goals →

	0	1	2
0	13	3	1
1	21	8	1
2	20	6	1
3	12	4	1
4	5	2
5	2	1

↑ Rio Ave goals · most likely 1–0 (21.5%)

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Match Result

Home Win

73%

Draw

22%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

78% BTTS No 22% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

38%

1.5

62%

66%

2.5

34%

85%

3.5

15%

95%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

73%

Draw

22%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

94% Home (No Draw) 6% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

45% Home Win by 2+ 1% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

73% Home Scores More 22% Equal Goals 5% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

38%

1.5

62%

66%

2.5

34%

85%

3.5

15%

95%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

78% BTTS No 22% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

13%

24%

28%

19%

10%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	13.4%	2.9%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
1	21.5%	7.6%	1.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2	20.0%	6.0%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	11.9%	3.6%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
4	5.3%	1.6%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

75%

1.5

25%

93%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

40%

36%

18%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

32%

35%

22%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Rio Ave	Draw	Casa Pia
Rio Ave	47.9%	1.6%	0.2%
Draw	25.3%	17.1%	2.4%
Casa Pia	1.2%	1.8%	2.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

47%

1.5

53%

74%

2.5

26%

90%

3.5

10%

Home Exact Goals

17%

30%

27%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

81%

1.5

19%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

74%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

87%

0.5

13%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

85%

0.5

15%

99%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Rio Ave vs Casa Pia

1 Rio Ave Wins

1 Draws

1 Casa Pia Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
16 May 2026	Casa Pia	1 - 1	Rio Ave
04 Jan 2026	Rio Ave	3 - 1	Casa Pia
29 Mar 2025	Casa Pia	2 - 1	Rio Ave

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Rio Ave — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Alverca	L	1 - 0
14 Sep	H Estrela	D	3 - 3
06 Sep	A Santa Clara	L	4 - 0
28 Aug	H Sporting CP	L	0 - 4
22 Aug	A Estoril	W	0 - 2

Casa Pia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Estoril	W	1 - 2
12 Sep	H FC Porto	L	1 - 4
06 Sep	A Vitória SC	D	0 - 0
30 Aug	H Moreirense	L	0 - 1
24 Aug	A GIL Vicente	L	2 - 0

Primeira Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18	3	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22	7	+15	16
3	Sporting CP	7	4	3	0	17	8	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11	4	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10	7	+3	11
6	SC Braga	6	3	2	1	7	5	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9	9	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14	14	0	10
9	GIL Vicente	6	2	2	2	5	5	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9	11	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8	12	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8	14	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9	7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	1	2	4	5	8	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7	15	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5	15	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3	16	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3	10	-7	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.