Arouca vs Rio Ave Prediction

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 12

29 Nov 2026, 16:00

Post on X

Rio Ave

Away

AI call Difficult Rio Ave win or draw

10%

27%

64%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Arouca vs Rio Ave prediction: Sportiko gives Arouca a 10% chance of winning, Rio Ave 64% and the draw 27%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

0:1 · 18.5%

Both teams to score

32%

Over 2.5 goals

35%

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Arouca

DLDWL

Rio Ave

LDLLW

Last 3 meetings Arouca · 1W 2D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming Primeira Liga match, Arouca faces Rio Ave, both teams looking to secure vital points. Arouca has shown resilience at home, with a solid defensive record, conceding an average of 1 goal per game this season. Conversely, Rio Ave's attacking line has been inconsistent, averaging just 1.2 goals per match. The matchup will likely hinge on Arouca's ability to maintain defensive solidity while capitalizing on any defensive lapses from Rio Ave. Key players to watch include Arouca's top scorer, who could exploit opportunities against a Rio Ave side that has struggled on the road.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

10%

Draw

27%

45%

Away

64%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Rio Ave goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	13	19	16	9	4	1
1	5	11	8	4	2	1
2	1	2	2	1
3
4
5

↑ Arouca goals · most likely 0–1 (18.5%)

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Players in form

Arouca

Barbero 4 gls

Rio Ave

No scorer data.

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

64%

Draw

27%

Home Win

10%

Both Teams To Score

68% BTTS No 32% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

37%

1.5

63%

65%

2.5

35%

84%

3.5

16%

94%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

64%

Draw

27%

Home Win

10%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

87% Away (No Draw) 13% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

36% Away Win by 2+ 2% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

64% Away Scores More 27% Equal Goals 10% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

37%

1.5

63%

65%

2.5

35%

84%

3.5

16%

94%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

68% BTTS No 32% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

13%

23%

28%

19%

10%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	13.5%	18.5%	16.0%	8.7%	3.5%
1	4.7%	11.0%	7.9%	4.2%	1.7%
2	1.5%	2.4%	1.9%	1.0%	0.4%
3	0.2%	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%
4	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

75%

1.5

25%

93%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

39%

35%

18%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

32%

34%

22%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Arouca	Draw	Rio Ave
Arouca	5.2%	2.7%	1.6%
Draw	4.6%	19.3%	22.8%
Rio Ave	0.4%	2.7%	40.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

99%

2.5

100%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

61%

30%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

80%

0.5

20%

98%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

76%

0.5

24%

97%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

52%

1.5

48%

78%

2.5

22%

92%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

20%

32%

26%

14%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Arouca vs Rio Ave

1 Arouca Wins

2 Draws

0 Rio Ave Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
31 Jan 2026	Rio Ave	0 - 3	Arouca
23 Aug 2025	Arouca	3 - 3	Rio Ave
10 Feb 2025	Arouca	1 - 1	Rio Ave

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Arouca — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Sporting CP	D	2 - 2
13 Sep	H Santa Clara	L	1 - 2
07 Sep	A Estoril	D	0 - 0
29 Aug	H Maritimo	W	2 - 1
23 Aug	A FC Porto	L	2 - 0

Rio Ave — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Alverca	L	1 - 0
14 Sep	H Estrela	D	3 - 3
06 Sep	A Santa Clara	L	4 - 0
28 Aug	H Sporting CP	L	0 - 4
22 Aug	A Estoril	W	0 - 2

Primeira Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18	3	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22	7	+15	16
3	Sporting CP	7	4	3	0	17	8	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11	4	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10	7	+3	11
6	SC Braga	6	3	2	1	7	5	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9	9	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14	14	0	10
9	GIL Vicente	6	2	2	2	5	5	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9	11	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8	12	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8	14	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9	7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	1	2	4	5	8	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7	15	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5	15	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3	16	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3	10	-7	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.