Vitória SC vs Nacional Prediction

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 3

Post on X

Nacional

Away

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

AI call Vitória SC or draw

48%

30%

23%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Vitória SC vs Nacional prediction: Sportiko gives Vitória SC a 48% chance of winning, Nacional 23% and the draw 30%. Last updated 23 Aug 2026, 16:33.

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Timeline

Gustavo Silva assist: Miguel Nogueira

4' ⚽ 1–0

Gonçalo Nogueira Yellow Card

28' ▮

Miguel Nogueira Yellow Card

38' ▮

Yellow Card

45+4' ▮

HT 1–0

Samu Missed Penalty

49' ✗

⇄ 56'

Wesley Gasolina ⇄ Daniel De la Cruz

⇄ 56'

Miguel Baeza ⇄ Williams Kokolo

Lohann Doucet ⇄ Beni Mukendi

63' ⇄

Miguel Nogueira ⇄ Oumar Camara

63' ⇄

⇄ 68'

Liziero ⇄ Stavros Gavriel

Gonçalo Nogueira ⇄ Matija Mitrović

72' ⇄

Gustavo Silva ⇄ Telmo Arcanjo

78' ⇄

⇄ 79'

Markus Jensen ⇄ Allen Obando

⇄ 80'

Matheus Dias ⇄ Matchoi Djaló

▮ 90+5'

Daniel Júnior Yellow Card

FT 1–0

Vitória SC

Match Stats

Nacional

50% Ball Possession 50%

2.84 Expected Goals (xG) 0.38

18 Total Shots 5

5 Shots on Goal 0

9 Shots off Goal 3

4 Blocked Shots 2

12 Shots insidebox 3

6 Shots outsidebox 2

3 Corner Kicks 3

1 Offsides 1

13 Fouls 5

2 Yellow Cards 0

Red Cards

0 Goalkeeper Saves 3

341 Total passes 343

283 Passes accurate 272

83% Passes % 79%

0.14 goals_prevented 0.14

Vitória SC

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
11 Gustavo Silva M	7.6	76'	1	–	5	12 (7%)	1
4 Óscar Rivas D	7.2	76'	–	–	–	48 (42%)	–
17 Miguel Nogueira M	7.2	63'	–	1	2	18 (15%)	1
23 Tony Strata D	7.2	76'	–	–	2	41 (36%)	2
28 Thiago Balieiro D	6.9	76'	–	–	–	47 (45%)	1
13 João Mendes D	6.9	76'	–	–	1	35 (25%)	–
8 Gonçalo Nogueira M	6.9	72'	–	–	–	27 (22%)	2
48 Oliwier Zych G	6.9	76'	–	–	–	25 (19%)	–
44 Lohann Doucet M	6.9	63'	–	–	–	37 (34%)	1
16 Beni Mukendi M	6.7	13'	–	–	–	7 (6%)	1
20 Samu M	6.7	76'	–	–	1	31 (24%)	3
7 Oumar Camara F	6.6	13'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	2
24 Alioune Ndoye F	6.5	76'	–	–	3	9 (5%)	–
6 Matija Mitrović M	—	4'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–

Nacional

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Daniel Júnior F	7.3	76'	–	–	–	20 (14%)	3
34 Léo Santos D	7.2	76'	–	–	–	59 (48%)	–
1 Renato Marin G	7.2	76'	–	–	–	25 (14%)	–
38 Ze Vitor D	7.0	76'	–	–	–	53 (46%)	2
8 Miguel Baeza F	7.0	56'	–	–	–	15 (14%)	1
22 Filipe Soares M	6.9	76'	–	–	–	37 (30%)	1
6 Matheus Dias D	6.7	76'	–	–	–	50 (41%)	2
11 Stavros Gavriel M	6.7	8'	–	–	–	2	–
28 Liziero M	6.5	68'	–	–	1	42 (35%)	1
7 Markus Jensen M	6.5	76'	–	–	–	13 (9%)	2
2 Daniel De la Cruz D	6.5	20'	–	–	1	3 (2%)	–
21 Williams Kokolo D	6.3	20'	–	–	–	4 (2%)	–
99 Pablo F	6.2	76'	–	–	1	6 (4%)	–
52 Wesley Gasolina M	6.2	56'	–	–	–	14 (13%)	1

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Confidence Low (48%)

At a glance

Our lean

Vitória SC or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 15%

Both teams to score

48%

Over 2.5 goals

40%

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Vitória SC

DLDLW

Nacional

LLLLL

Last 3 meetings Vitória SC · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Primeira Liga match, Guimaraes will face Nacional. Guimaraes has shown a strong home record, with their attacking line averaging 2.1 goals per game, while Nacional has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.0 goals away from home. Both teams will need to capitalize on their respective strengths, with Guimaraes aiming to leverage their attacking prowess, and Nacional looking to tighten their defense. Recent form indicates Guimaraes as favorites, but Nacional could exploit counter-attacking opportunities if they remain disciplined. Expect a competitive encounter with potential for high scoring.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

48%

10%

Draw

30%

45%

Away

23%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Nacional goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	12	10	7	3	1
1	9	15	8	3	1
2	6	7	4	2	1
3	2	3	2	1
4	1	1
5

↑ Vitória SC goals · most likely 1–1 (15.0%)

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Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

30%

Away Win

23%

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS No 48% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

31%

1.5

69%

60%

2.5

40%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

30%

Away Win

23%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

53% Away (No Draw) 47% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

16% Away Win by 2+ 14% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

36% Away Scores More 32% Home Scores More 32% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

31%

1.5

69%

60%

2.5

40%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS No 48% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

20%

28%

20%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.8%	10.2%	7.1%	2.8%	0.8%
1	9.4%	15.0%	7.9%	3.1%	0.9%
2	6.2%	7.4%	4.4%	1.7%	0.5%
3	2.3%	2.7%	1.6%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.6%	0.8%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

71%

1.5

30%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

36%

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Vitória SC	Draw	Nacional
Vitória SC	17.8%	3.9%	1.5%
Draw	13.5%	21.0%	13.2%
Nacional	1.8%	4.8%	22.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

70%

1.5

30%

90%

2.5

10%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

33%

37%

20%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

62%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

87%

1.5

13%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

67%

1.5

33%

88%

2.5

12%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

30%

36%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Vitória SC vs Nacional

2 Vitória SC Wins

0 Draws

1 Nacional Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
16 May 2026	Nacional	2 - 0	Vitória SC
02 Jan 2026	Vitória SC	2 - 1	Nacional
03 May 2025	Nacional	1 - 2	Vitória SC

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Vitória SC — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Moreirense	D	1 - 1
12 Sep	A Academico Viseu	L	2 - 1
06 Sep	H Casa Pia	D	0 - 0
31 Aug	A SC Braga	L	1 - 0
23 Aug	H Nacional	W	1 - 0

Nacional — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Famalicao	L	0 - 4
12 Sep	H Alverca	L	1 - 3
05 Sep	A Sporting CP	L	2 - 0
30 Aug	H Estrela	L	2 - 3
23 Aug	A Vitória SC	L	1 - 0

Primeira Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18	3	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22	7	+15	16
3	Sporting CP	7	4	3	0	17	8	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11	4	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10	7	+3	11
6	SC Braga	6	3	2	1	7	5	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9	9	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14	14	0	10
9	GIL Vicente	6	2	2	2	5	5	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9	11	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8	12	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8	14	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9	7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	1	2	4	5	8	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7	15	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5	15	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3	16	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3	10	-7	2

Vitória SC

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Tiago Margarido

48 Zych

13 Mendes

28 Balieiro

4 Rivas

23 Strata

8 Nogueira

44 Doucet

11 Silva

20 Samu

17 Nogueira

24 Ndoye

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
48	Oliwier Zych	G
23	Tony Strata	D
4	Óscar Rivas	D
28	Thiago Balieiro	D
13	João Mendes	D
44	Lohann Doucet	M
8	Gonçalo Nogueira	M
17	Miguel Nogueira	M
20	Samu	M
11	Gustavo Silva	M
24	Alioune Ndoye	F

Substitutes

98	Lucas Furtado	G
22	Juan Castillo	G
82	Francisco Dias	D
5	Franck Ahmed Sidibé	D
2	Miguel Maga	D
56	Santi Verdi	M
18	Telmo Arcanjo	M
6	Matija Mitrović	M
16	Beni Mukendi	M
7	Oumar Camara	F
29	Patrick Ouotro	F

Nacional

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Giao Joao

1 Marin

38 Vitor

6 Dias

34 Santos

7 Jensen

22 Soares

28 Liziero

52 Gasolina

10 Júnior

8 Baeza

99 Cardozo

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Renato Marin	G
34	Léo Santos	D
6	Matheus Dias	D
38	Ze Vitor	D
52	Wesley Gasolina	M
28	Liziero	M
22	Filipe Soares	M
7	Markus Jensen	M
8	Miguel Baeza	F
10	Daniel Júnior	F
99	Pablo Messias Cardozo	F

Substitutes

13	João Gonçalves	G
21	Williams Kokolo	D
33	Francisco Gonçalves	D
20	Matchoi Djaló	M
11	Stavros Gavriel	M
2	Daniel De la Cruz	D
23	Mateus Jose Iseppe	M
88	Deivison Souza Brito	M
9	Allen Obando	F