Vitória SC vs Arouca Prediction
FT
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães
AI call
Vitória SC or draw
46%
28%
26%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Vitória SC vs Arouca prediction: Sportiko gives Vitória SC a 46% chance of winning, Arouca 26% and the draw 28%. Last updated 8 Aug 2026, 18:57.
Premium picks
Premium- Home to Score 76%
- Over 1.5 Goals 74%
- 1st Half Draw or Away 72%
Premium members had these picks before kick-off.
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Timeline
HT 0–0
⚽
0–1
53'
Ivan Barbero
assist: Naïs Djouahra
▮
64'
Hyun-ju Lee
Yellow Card
⇄
65'
Mateo Flores
⇄ Orest Lebedenko
⇄
65'
Ivan Barbero
⇄ Dylan Nandín
Oumar Camara
Yellow Card
69'
▮
Miguel Maga
⇄ Tony Strata
69'
⇄
Oumar Camara
⇄ Telmo Arcanjo
70'
⇄
⇄
70'
Hyun-ju Lee
⇄ Pablo Gozálbez
⇄
70'
Espen Van Ee
⇄ Pedro Santos
⇄
73'
Javi Sánchez
⇄ Diogo Monteiro
Alioune Ndoye
⇄ Miguel Nogueira
78'
⇄
Gonçalo Nogueira
⇄ Matija Mitrović
78'
⇄
▮
90'
Diogo Monteiro
Yellow Card
▮
90+2'
Orest Lebedenko
Yellow Card
▮
90+3'
Diogo Monteiro
Yellow Card
▮
90+3'
Diogo Monteiro
Red Card
▮
90+4'
Ignacio de Arruabarrena
Yellow Card
Matija Mitrović
Yellow Card
90+6'
▮
Gustavo Silva
⇄ Lohann Doucet
90+6'
⇄
FT 0–1
Vitória SC
Match Stats
Arouca
58%
Ball Possession
42%
2.22
Expected Goals (xG)
0.49
24
Total Shots
4
3
Shots on Goal
2
14
Shots off Goal
1
7
Blocked Shots
1
16
Shots insidebox
3
8
Shots outsidebox
1
5
Corner Kicks
2
1
Offsides
3
8
Fouls
7
1
Yellow Cards
5
0
Red Cards
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3
496
Total passes
375
431
Passes accurate
297
87%
Passes %
79%
0.22
goals_prevented
0.22
Vitória SC
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Beni Mukendi M | 7.3 | 94' | – | – | – | 59 (53%) | 5 |
| 28 Thiago Balieiro D | 7.2 | 94' | – | – | 1 | 75 (70%) | 3 |
| 20 Samu M | 7.2 | 94' | – | – | 1 | 40 (38%) | 1 |
| 8 Gonçalo Nogueira M | 7.2 | 78' | – | – | 1 | 38 (34%) | 1 |
| 13 João Mendes D | 7.0 | 94' | – | – | 1 | 60 (49%) | – |
| 11 Gustavo Silva M | 7.0 | 94' | – | – | 5 | 22 (15%) | 3 |
| 18 Telmo Arcanjo M | 6.9 | 24' | – | – | 1 | 11 (9%) | 1 |
| 2 Miguel Maga D | 6.9 | 69' | – | – | – | 28 (26%) | 1 |
| 6 Matija Mitrović M | 6.9 | 16' | – | – | – | 15 (13%) | – |
| 4 Óscar Rivas D | 6.6 | 94' | – | – | 1 | 81 (73%) | 1 |
| 17 Miguel Nogueira M | 6.5 | 16' | – | – | 1 | 4 (4%) | – |
| 7 Oumar Camara M | 6.5 | 70' | – | – | 1 | 16 (8%) | 1 |
| 24 Alioune Ndoye F | 6.5 | 78' | – | – | 4 | 8 (6%) | – |
| 23 Tony Strata D | 6.3 | 25' | – | – | – | 19 (14%) | – |
| 48 Oliwier Zych G | 6.3 | 94' | – | – | – | 18 (17%) | – |
Arouca
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Javi Sánchez D | 7.7 | 73' | – | – | – | 43 (39%) | 2 |
| 3 Jose Fontán D | 7.7 | 94' | – | – | – | 69 (58%) | 1 |
| 12 Ignacio de Arruabarrena G | 7.3 | 94' | – | – | – | 52 (32%) | – |
| 17 Ivan Barbero F | 7.3 | 65' | 1 | – | 1 | 17 (12%) | 2 |
| 28 Tiago Esgaio D | 7.2 | 94' | – | – | 1 | 24 (15%) | 2 |
| 8 Taichi Fukui M | 7.0 | 94' | – | – | – | 38 (33%) | 4 |
| 7 Naïs Djouahra M | 7.0 | 94' | – | 1 | 1 | 23 (19%) | 1 |
| 23 Dylan Nandín F | 6.6 | 29' | – | – | – | 8 (5%) | – |
| 6 Espen Van Ee M | 6.3 | 70' | – | – | – | 22 (18%) | 1 |
| 10 Pablo Gozálbez M | 6.3 | 24' | – | – | – | 5 (4%) | 1 |
| 89 Pedro Santos M | 6.3 | 24' | – | – | – | 10 (9%) | – |
| 21 Mateo Flores D | 6.3 | 65' | – | – | – | 27 (23%) | 1 |
| 18 Orest Lebedenko D | 6.3 | 29' | – | – | – | 5 (4%) | 1 |
| 14 Hyun-ju Lee M | 6.2 | 70' | – | – | – | 13 (12%) | 1 |
| 19 Alfonso Trezza M | 6.2 | 94' | – | – | – | 11 (7%) | 1 |
| 4 Diogo Monteiro D | 5.3 | 20' | – | – | – | 8 (7%) | – |
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Confidence
Low (46%)
At a glance
Our lean
Vitória SC or draw
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Vitória SC
DLDLW
Arouca
DLDWL
Last 3 meetings
Vitória SC · 0W 2D 1L
Match summary
Guimaraes will host Arouca in this Primeira Liga matchup, aiming to capitalize on their attacking prowess. Historically, Guimaraes has shown strength at home, with a solid record in recent fixtures, scoring an average of 2 goals per game. Arouca, on the other hand, has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match this season. This clash will be crucial for both teams as they seek to secure vital points early in the league. The outcome could hinge on Guimaraes' ability to exploit Arouca's defensive vulnerabilities.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
46%
45%
Draw
28%
45%
Away
26%
10%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Vitória SC
No scorer data.
Arouca
Barbero
4 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Vitória SC vs Arouca
0
Vitória SC Wins
2
Draws
1
Arouca Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Feb 2026 | Arouca | 3 - 2 | Vitória SC |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Vitória SC | 1 - 1 | Arouca |
| 18 Jan 2025 | Vitória SC | 2 - 2 | Arouca |
Vitória SC — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | H Moreirense | D | 1 - 1 |
| 12 Sep | A Academico Viseu | L | 2 - 1 |
| 06 Sep | H Casa Pia | D | 0 - 0 |
| 31 Aug | A SC Braga | L | 1 - 0 |
| 23 Aug | H Nacional | W | 1 - 0 |
Arouca — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | A Sporting CP | D | 2 - 2 |
| 13 Sep | H Santa Clara | L | 1 - 2 |
| 07 Sep | A Estoril | D | 0 - 0 |
| 29 Aug | H Maritimo | W | 2 - 1 |
| 23 Aug | A FC Porto | L | 2 - 0 |
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
FC Porto
|
7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 21 |
| 2 |
Benfica
|
7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 16 |
| 3 |
Sporting CP
|
7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 15 |
| 4 |
Santa Clara
|
7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 15 |
| 5 |
Arouca
|
7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 11 |
| 6 |
SC Braga
|
6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 |
| 7 |
Academico Viseu
|
7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 |
Estrela
|
7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 |
GIL Vicente
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 |
Alverca
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 |
Maritimo
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 |
Moreirense
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 |
Famalicao
|
7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 |
Vitória SC
|
7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 |
Nacional
|
7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 |
| 16 |
Rio Ave
|
7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 |
Casa Pia
|
7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 |
Estoril
|
7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2 |
Vitória SC
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Tiago Margarido
48
Zych
13
Mendes
28
Balieiro
4
Rivas
2
Maga
8
Nogueira
16
Mukendi
7
Camara
20
Samu
11
Silva
24
Ndoye
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 48 | Oliwier Zych | G |
| 2 | Miguel Maga | D |
| 4 | Óscar Rivas | D |
| 28 | Thiago Balieiro | D |
| 13 | João Mendes | D |
| 16 | Beni Mukendi | M |
| 8 | Gonçalo Nogueira | M |
| 11 | Gustavo Silva | M |
| 20 | Samu | M |
| 7 | Oumar Camara | M |
| 24 | Alioune Ndoye | F |
Substitutes
| 23 | Tony Strata | D |
| 18 | Telmo Arcanjo | M |
| 22 | Juan Castillo | G |
| 98 | Lucas Furtado | G |
| 5 | Franck Ahmed Sidibé | D |
| 82 | Francisco Dias | D |
| 56 | Santi Verdi | M |
| 17 | Miguel Nogueira | M |
| 44 | Lohann Doucet | M |
| 6 | Matija Mitrović | M |
Arouca
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Vasco Seabra
12
Arruabarrena
21
Flores
3
Fontán
15
Sánchez
28
Esgaio
8
Fukui
6
Ee
7
Djouahra
14
Lee
19
Trezza
17
Barbero
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Ignacio de Arruabarrena | G |
| 28 | Tiago Esgaio | D |
| 15 | Javi Sánchez | D |
| 3 | Jose Fontán | D |
| 21 | Mateo Flores | D |
| 6 | Espen Van Ee | M |
| 8 | Taichi Fukui | M |
| 19 | Alfonso Trezza | M |
| 14 | Hyun-ju Lee | M |
| 7 | Naïs Djouahra | M |
| 17 | Ivan Barbero | F |
Substitutes
| 18 | Orest Lebedenko | D |
| 23 | Dylan Nandín | F |
| 89 | Pedro Santos | M |
| 10 | Pablo Gozálbez | M |
| 4 | Diogo Monteiro | D |
| 1 | Jakub Vinarčík | G |
| 71 | Martim Duarte | G |
| 37 | Mario Climent | D |
| 5 | Boris Popović | D |
| 24 | Brian Mansilla | F |
| 9 | Fally Mayulu | F |
| 77 | Si-hoo Park | F |