NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Eredivisie · Regular Season - 24

28 Feb 2027, 16:00

Post on X

AZ Alkmaar

Away

Goffertstadion, Nijmegen

AI call NEC Nijmegen or draw

44%

29%

28%

Home Win Draw Away Win

NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar prediction: Sportiko gives NEC Nijmegen a 44% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar 28% and the draw 29%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.7%

Both teams to score

56%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

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NEC Nijmegen

DLLDL

AZ Alkmaar

WLDWW

Last 3 meetings NEC Nijmegen · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

In their upcoming Eredivisie clash, NEC Nijmegen will face AZ Alkmaar, two teams with contrasting seasons. NEC has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match, while AZ boasts a potent attack, averaging 2.1 goals per game. The key matchup will likely be NEC's defense against AZ's forward line, led by their top scorer, who has netted 10 goals this season. Success in midfield will be crucial for both sides; controlling possession could dictate the pace of the game. Expect a competitive encounter with potential for goals.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

44%

45%

Draw

29%

45%

Away

28%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

AZ Alkmaar goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	6	5	2	1
1	9	14	7	3	1
2	8	9	5	2	1
3	4	5	3	1
4	2	2	1
5		1

↑ NEC Nijmegen goals · most likely 1–1 (13.7%)

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Players in form

NEC Nijmegen

No scorer data.

AZ Alkmaar

R. Daal 4 gls

M. Meerdink 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

29%

Away Win

28%

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

50%

2.5

50%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

29%

Away Win

28%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

61% Home (No Draw) 39% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

23% Home Win by 2+ 12% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

44% Home Scores More 29% Equal Goals 28% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

50%

2.5

50%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Exact Goals

15%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.3%	6.3%	4.6%	1.8%	0.5%
1	8.8%	13.7%	7.1%	2.8%	0.8%
2	7.9%	9.3%	5.4%	2.1%	0.6%
3	4.0%	4.7%	2.8%	1.1%	0.3%
4	1.5%	1.8%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

64%

1.5

36%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

55%

1.5

45%

81%

2.5

19%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

24%

31%

27%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	NEC Nijmegen	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
NEC Nijmegen	26.9%	4.4%	1.7%
Draw	15.9%	17.6%	10.7%
AZ Alkmaar	2.4%	4.5%	16.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

55%

1.5

45%

81%

2.5

19%

94%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

22%

33%

25%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

85%

1.5

15%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

31%

36%

21%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar

2 NEC Nijmegen Wins

1 Draws

0 AZ Alkmaar Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
31 Jan 2026	AZ Alkmaar	1 - 3	NEC Nijmegen
28 Sep 2025	NEC Nijmegen	2 - 1	AZ Alkmaar
29 Mar 2025	NEC Nijmegen	3 - 3	AZ Alkmaar

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NEC Nijmegen — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H GO Ahead Eagles	D	1 - 1
17 Sep	A Juventus	L	5 - 0
12 Sep	A Cambuur	L	3 - 0
08 Sep	H Excelsior	D	2 - 2
05 Sep	H Feyenoord	L	1 - 3

AZ Alkmaar — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Telstar	W	1 - 0
16 Sep	A Sunderland	L	1 - 0
11 Sep	H Willem II	D	1 - 1
06 Sep	A Heerenveen	W	2 - 3
29 Aug	H GO Ahead Eagles	W	5 - 2

Eredivisie Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	AZ Alkmaar	7	6	1	0	18	6	+12	19
2	Feyenoord	7	5	2	0	25	7	+18	17
3	PSV Eindhoven	7	5	1	1	24	10	+14	16
4	Twente	7	5	1	1	15	7	+8	16
5	Ajax	7	4	2	1	21	9	+12	14
6	Fortuna Sittard	7	4	1	2	13	14	-1	13
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	15	9	+6	11
8	Groningen	7	3	2	2	15	13	+2	11
9	GO Ahead Eagles	7	2	4	1	16	14	+2	10
10	Heerenveen	7	2	3	2	11	9	+2	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	7	2	2	3	12	13	-1	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	7	1	2	4	10	17	-7	5
13	Telstar	7	1	2	4	5	12	-7	5
14	Cambuur	7	1	2	4	10	19	-9	5
15	Utrecht	7	1	2	4	11	24	-13	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	1	1	5	6	20	-14	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	0	2	5	7	17	-10	2
18	Willem II	7	0	2	5	6	20	-14	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.