Excelsior vs Heerenveen Prediction

Eredivisie · Regular Season - 24

28 Feb 2027, 16:00

Post on X

Heerenveen

Away

AI call Difficult Heerenveen win or draw

18%

26%

56%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Excelsior vs Heerenveen prediction: Sportiko gives Excelsior a 18% chance of winning, Heerenveen 56% and the draw 26%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.5%

Both teams to score

51%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

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Excelsior

DLDWW

Heerenveen

WDLDL

Last 3 meetings Excelsior · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

Excelsior faces Heerenveen in a crucial Eredivisie clash. Excelsior's form has been inconsistent, with a record of 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Heerenveen has shown improved performance, securing 3 wins in the same period. Key players to watch include Excelsior's leading scorer, who has netted 8 goals this season, against Heerenveen's solid defense, which boasts an average of 1.2 goals conceded per match. The tactical battle will likely hinge on Excelsior's ability to break through Heerenveen's backline while maintaining defensive solidity.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

18%

45%

Draw

26%

45%

Away

56%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Heerenveen goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	11	11	6	3	1
1	5	13	10	6	3	1
2	3	5	5	3	1
3	1	2	1	1
4
5

↑ Excelsior goals · most likely 1–1 (12.5%)

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Players in form

Excelsior

A. Sliti 3 gls

Heerenveen

No scorer data.

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

56%

Draw

26%

Home Win

18%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS Yes 49% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

24%

1.5

76%

50%

2.5

50%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

56%

Draw

26%

Home Win

18%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

76% Away (No Draw) 24% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

33% Away Win by 2+ 6% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

56% Away Scores More 26% Equal Goals 18% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

24%

1.5

76%

50%

2.5

50%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS Yes 49% BTTS No

Exact Goals

15%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.2%	10.7%	10.9%	6.5%	2.9%
1	4.7%	12.5%	9.9%	5.9%	2.6%
2	2.8%	5.0%	4.5%	2.7%	1.2%
3	0.9%	1.5%	1.4%	0.8%	0.4%
4	0.2%	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

65%

1.5

35%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

31%

34%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

55%

1.5

45%

81%

2.5

19%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

24%

31%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Excelsior	Draw	Heerenveen
Excelsior	9.8%	3.9%	2.5%
Draw	7.2%	16.4%	19.4%
Heerenveen	1.1%	3.8%	35.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

94%

2.5

99%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

40%

37%

17%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

94%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

47%

1.5

53%

74%

2.5

26%

90%

3.5

10%

Away Exact Goals

17%

30%

27%

16%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

81%

1.5

19%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Excelsior vs Heerenveen

1 Excelsior Wins

0 Draws

2 Heerenveen Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
07 Mar 2026	Excelsior	1 - 2	Heerenveen
04 Oct 2025	Heerenveen	2 - 1	Excelsior
19 Jan 2024	Excelsior	3 - 0	Heerenveen

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Excelsior — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Ajax	D	2 - 2
13 Sep	H Utrecht	L	1 - 2
08 Sep	A NEC Nijmegen	D	2 - 2
05 Sep	A Willem II	W	0 - 3
29 Aug	H Sparta Rotterdam	W	2 - 1

Heerenveen — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Sparta Rotterdam	W	0 - 4
13 Sep	H Telstar	D	0 - 0
06 Sep	H AZ Alkmaar	L	2 - 3
30 Aug	A Willem II	D	2 - 2
22 Aug	H PEC Zwolle	L	0 - 2

Eredivisie Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	AZ Alkmaar	7	6	1	0	18	6	+12	19
2	Feyenoord	7	5	2	0	25	7	+18	17
3	PSV Eindhoven	7	5	1	1	24	10	+14	16
4	Twente	7	5	1	1	15	7	+8	16
5	Ajax	7	4	2	1	21	9	+12	14
6	Fortuna Sittard	7	4	1	2	13	14	-1	13
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	15	9	+6	11
8	Groningen	7	3	2	2	15	13	+2	11
9	GO Ahead Eagles	7	2	4	1	16	14	+2	10
10	Heerenveen	7	2	3	2	11	9	+2	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	7	2	2	3	12	13	-1	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	7	1	2	4	10	17	-7	5
13	Telstar	7	1	2	4	5	12	-7	5
14	Cambuur	7	1	2	4	10	19	-9	5
15	Utrecht	7	1	2	4	11	24	-13	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	1	1	5	6	20	-14	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	0	2	5	7	17	-10	2
18	Willem II	7	0	2	5	6	20	-14	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.