AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht Prediction

Eredivisie · Regular Season - 20

24 Jan 2027, 16:00

Post on X

Utrecht

Away

AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

AI call AZ Alkmaar or draw

46%

29%

25%

Home Win Draw Away Win

AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht prediction: Sportiko gives AZ Alkmaar a 46% chance of winning, Utrecht 25% and the draw 29%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.7%

Both teams to score

54%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

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AZ Alkmaar

WLDWW

Utrecht

LWDLD

Last 3 meetings AZ Alkmaar · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

AZ Alkmaar faces Utrecht in an Eredivisie clash, with both teams aiming for vital points. AZ has shown strong home form, averaging 2.2 goals per game at home this season, while Utrecht has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match on the road. In head-to-head encounters, AZ has had the upper hand, winning 4 of the last 5 meetings. Both teams will look to capitalize on their respective strengths, making this a crucial match in the league standings.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

46%

10%

Draw

29%

45%

Away

25%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Utrecht goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9	6	4	2
1	9	14	7	2	1
2	9	9	5	2	1
3	4	5	3	1
4	2	2	1
5	1	1

↑ AZ Alkmaar goals · most likely 1–1 (13.7%)

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Players in form

AZ Alkmaar

R. Daal 4 gls

M. Meerdink 3 gls

Utrecht

Artem Stepanov 5 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

29%

Away Win

25%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

24%

1.5

76%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

29%

Away Win

25%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

64% Home (No Draw) 36% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

24% Home Win by 2+ 10% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

46% Home Scores More 29% Equal Goals 25% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

24%

1.5

76%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Exact Goals

16%

27%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.7%	6.2%	4.3%	1.6%	0.4%
1	9.4%	13.7%	6.7%	2.4%	0.7%
2	8.5%	9.4%	5.2%	1.9%	0.5%
3	4.4%	4.9%	2.7%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.7%	1.9%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

65%

1.5

35%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

56%

1.5

44%

82%

2.5

18%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

25%

31%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar	28.3%	4.3%	1.5%
Draw	16.6%	17.8%	10.0%
Utrecht	2.4%	4.4%	14.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

54%

1.5

46%

80%

2.5

20%

93%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

21%

33%

26%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

84%

1.5

16%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

70%

1.5

30%

90%

2.5

10%

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

33%

37%

20%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht

2 AZ Alkmaar Wins

0 Draws

1 Utrecht Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
15 Aug 2026	Utrecht	1 - 4	AZ Alkmaar
01 Mar 2026	Utrecht	2 - 0	AZ Alkmaar
26 Oct 2025	AZ Alkmaar	4 - 1	Utrecht

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AZ Alkmaar — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Telstar	W	1 - 0
16 Sep	A Sunderland	L	1 - 0
11 Sep	H Willem II	D	1 - 1
06 Sep	A Heerenveen	W	2 - 3
29 Aug	H GO Ahead Eagles	W	5 - 2

Utrecht — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Feyenoord	L	5 - 0
13 Sep	A Excelsior	W	1 - 2
08 Sep	H GO Ahead Eagles	D	3 - 3
30 Aug	H PSV Eindhoven	L	1 - 6
22 Aug	A Sparta Rotterdam	D	3 - 3

Eredivisie Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	AZ Alkmaar	7	6	1	0	18	6	+12	19
2	Feyenoord	7	5	2	0	25	7	+18	17
3	PSV Eindhoven	7	5	1	1	24	10	+14	16
4	Twente	7	5	1	1	15	7	+8	16
5	Ajax	7	4	2	1	21	9	+12	14
6	Fortuna Sittard	7	4	1	2	13	14	-1	13
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	15	9	+6	11
8	Groningen	7	3	2	2	15	13	+2	11
9	GO Ahead Eagles	7	2	4	1	16	14	+2	10
10	Heerenveen	7	2	3	2	11	9	+2	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	7	2	2	3	12	13	-1	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	7	1	2	4	10	17	-7	5
13	Telstar	7	1	2	4	5	12	-7	5
14	Cambuur	7	1	2	4	10	19	-9	5
15	Utrecht	7	1	2	4	11	24	-13	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	1	1	5	6	20	-14	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	0	2	5	7	17	-10	2
18	Willem II	7	0	2	5	6	20	-14	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.