Ajax vs Groningen Prediction

Eredivisie · Regular Season - 19

17 Jan 2027, 16:00

Post on X

Groningen

Away

Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam

AI call Ajax to win

83%

14%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Ajax vs Groningen prediction: Sportiko gives Ajax a 83% chance of winning, Groningen 3% and the draw 14%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

2:0 · 20%

Both teams to score

24%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

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Ajax

DWWLW

Groningen

WDDLL

Last 3 meetings Ajax · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

Ajax enters this Eredivisie match against Groningen with a strong offensive record, averaging 2.5 goals per game this season. Their possession-based style has led to a high pass completion rate of 85%, indicating effective ball control. Groningen, on the other hand, has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match. The tactical battle will likely hinge on Ajax's ability to exploit Groningen's defensive vulnerabilities while maintaining their own defensive solidity. Expect Ajax to dominate possession and create multiple scoring opportunities.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

83%

45%

Draw

14%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Groningen goals →

	0	1	2
0	7	1
1	16	6	1
2	20	6	1
3	16	5	1
4	10	3
5	5	1

↑ Ajax goals · most likely 2–0 (20.0%)

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Players in form

Ajax

J. Brandt 4 gls

Groningen

T. van Bergen 4 gls

B. Willumsson 4 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

83%

Draw

14%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

76% BTTS No 24% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

24%

1.5

76%

50%

2.5

50%

73%

3.5

27%

89%

4.5

11%

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

83%

Draw

14%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

97% Home (No Draw) 3% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

61% Home Win by 2+ 0% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

83% Home Scores More 14% Equal Goals 3% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

24%

1.5

76%

50%

2.5

50%

73%

3.5

27%

89%

4.5

11%

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

76% BTTS No 24% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

17%

26%

23%

16%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

51% Even Total Goals 49% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.4%	1.4%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
1	15.7%	5.6%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%
2	20.0%	6.0%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	16.3%	4.9%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%
4	9.9%	3.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

35%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

55%

1.5

45%

81%

2.5

19%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

32%

26%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Ajax	Draw	Groningen
Ajax	59.8%	1.2%	0.1%
Draw	23.5%	10.0%	1.3%
Groningen	1.4%	1.3%	1.4%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

31%

1.5

69%

58%

2.5

42%

80%

3.5

20%

Home Exact Goals

22%

27%

22%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

70%

1.5

30%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

61%

1.5

39%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

74%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

87%

0.5

13%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

85%

0.5

15%

99%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Ajax vs Groningen

1 Ajax Wins

1 Draws

1 Groningen Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
07 Mar 2026	Groningen	3 - 1	Ajax
02 Dec 2025	Ajax	2 - 0	Groningen
14 May 2025	Groningen	2 - 2	Ajax

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Ajax — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Excelsior	D	2 - 2
15 Sep	H Willem II	W	5 - 1
12 Sep	A Fortuna Sittard	W	1 - 5
05 Sep	H PSV Eindhoven	L	1 - 3
30 Aug	A Telstar	W	0 - 4

Groningen — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H PEC Zwolle	W	3 - 0
12 Sep	A GO Ahead Eagles	D	1 - 1
06 Sep	H Twente	D	2 - 2
28 Aug	H Fortuna Sittard	L	2 - 3
23 Aug	A PSV Eindhoven	L	5 - 1

Eredivisie Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	AZ Alkmaar	7	6	1	0	18	6	+12	19
2	Feyenoord	7	5	2	0	25	7	+18	17
3	PSV Eindhoven	7	5	1	1	24	10	+14	16
4	Twente	7	5	1	1	15	7	+8	16
5	Ajax	7	4	2	1	21	9	+12	14
6	Fortuna Sittard	7	4	1	2	13	14	-1	13
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	15	9	+6	11
8	Groningen	7	3	2	2	15	13	+2	11
9	GO Ahead Eagles	7	2	4	1	16	14	+2	10
10	Heerenveen	7	2	3	2	11	9	+2	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	7	2	2	3	12	13	-1	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	7	1	2	4	10	17	-7	5
13	Telstar	7	1	2	4	5	12	-7	5
14	Cambuur	7	1	2	4	10	19	-9	5
15	Utrecht	7	1	2	4	11	24	-13	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	1	1	5	6	20	-14	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	0	2	5	7	17	-10	2
18	Willem II	7	0	2	5	6	20	-14	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.