Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Eredivisie · Regular Season - 17

20 Dec 2026, 16:00

Post on X

AZ Alkmaar

Away

AI call AZ Alkmaar or draw

24%

27%

49%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar prediction: Sportiko gives Excelsior a 24% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar 49% and the draw 27%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 13%

Both teams to score

56%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

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Excelsior

DLDWW

AZ Alkmaar

WLDWW

Last 3 meetings Excelsior · 0W 1D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming Eredivisie clash, Excelsior will face AZ Alkmaar, a match that promises to be competitive. Historically, Excelsior has struggled against AZ, who have a stronger overall squad and better recent form. AZ Alkmaar's attacking prowess, led by their top scorers, could exploit Excelsior's defensive vulnerabilities. On the other hand, Excelsior will need to maximize their goal-scoring opportunities to challenge AZ's solid backline. This matchup will be crucial for both teams as they aim for points in their league campaigns.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

AZ Alkmaar goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	9	9	5	2	1
1	5	13	10	5	2	1
2	4	6	5	3	1
3	1	2	2	1
4		1	1
5

↑ Excelsior goals · most likely 1–1 (13.0%)

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Players in form

Excelsior

A. Sliti 3 gls

AZ Alkmaar

R. Daal 4 gls

M. Meerdink 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

49%

Draw

27%

Home Win

24%

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS Yes 44% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

22%

1.5

78%

47%

2.5

53%

70%

3.5

30%

86%

4.5

14%

94%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

49%

Draw

27%

Home Win

24%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

67% Away (No Draw) 33% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

27% Away Win by 2+ 10% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

49% Away Scores More 27% Equal Goals 24% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

22%

1.5

78%

47%

2.5

53%

70%

3.5

30%

86%

4.5

14%

94%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS Yes 44% BTTS No

Exact Goals

14%

26%

22%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.6%	8.8%	8.7%	4.9%	2.0%
1	5.4%	13.0%	9.7%	5.4%	2.3%
2	3.9%	6.5%	5.4%	3.0%	1.3%
3	1.4%	2.4%	2.0%	1.1%	0.5%
4	0.4%	0.7%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

53%

1.5

47%

80%

2.5

20%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Excelsior	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior	13.9%	4.4%	2.6%
Draw	9.3%	16.7%	17.2%
AZ Alkmaar	1.5%	4.2%	30.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

33%

37%

20%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

60%

0.5

40%

91%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

19%

0.5

81%

50%

1.5

50%

77%

2.5

23%

92%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

19%

32%

27%

15%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

47%

0.5

53%

83%

1.5

17%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

76%

1.5

24%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar

0 Excelsior Wins

1 Draws

2 AZ Alkmaar Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
14 Feb 2026	Excelsior	1 - 2	AZ Alkmaar
21 Jan 2026	AZ Alkmaar	1 - 1	Excelsior
10 Mar 2024	AZ Alkmaar	4 - 0	Excelsior

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Excelsior — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Ajax	D	2 - 2
13 Sep	H Utrecht	L	1 - 2
08 Sep	A NEC Nijmegen	D	2 - 2
05 Sep	A Willem II	W	0 - 3
29 Aug	H Sparta Rotterdam	W	2 - 1

AZ Alkmaar — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Telstar	W	1 - 0
16 Sep	A Sunderland	L	1 - 0
11 Sep	H Willem II	D	1 - 1
06 Sep	A Heerenveen	W	2 - 3
29 Aug	H GO Ahead Eagles	W	5 - 2

Eredivisie Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	AZ Alkmaar	7	6	1	0	18	6	+12	19
2	Feyenoord	7	5	2	0	25	7	+18	17
3	PSV Eindhoven	7	5	1	1	24	10	+14	16
4	Twente	7	5	1	1	15	7	+8	16
5	Ajax	7	4	2	1	21	9	+12	14
6	Fortuna Sittard	7	4	1	2	13	14	-1	13
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	15	9	+6	11
8	Groningen	7	3	2	2	15	13	+2	11
9	GO Ahead Eagles	7	2	4	1	16	14	+2	10
10	Heerenveen	7	2	3	2	11	9	+2	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	7	2	2	3	12	13	-1	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	7	1	2	4	10	17	-7	5
13	Telstar	7	1	2	4	5	12	-7	5
14	Cambuur	7	1	2	4	10	19	-9	5
15	Utrecht	7	1	2	4	11	24	-13	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	1	1	5	6	20	-14	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	0	2	5	7	17	-10	2
18	Willem II	7	0	2	5	6	20	-14	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.