Groningen vs Ajax Prediction
FT
Euroborg, Groningen
AI call
Difficult Ajax win or draw
26%
24%
50%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Groningen vs Ajax prediction: Sportiko gives Groningen a 26% chance of winning, Ajax 50% and the draw 24%. Last updated 18 Oct 2026, 16:42.
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- 1st Half Draw or Away 72%
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Timeline
✗
10'
Davy Klaassen
Missed Penalty
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson
Penalty cancelled
16'
🖵
⚽
0–1
27'
Julian Brandt
⚽
0–2
37'
Aaron Bouwman
Thom van Bergen
Yellow Card
40'
▮
▮
45+2'
Dies Janse
Yellow Card
HT 0–2
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson
49'
⚽
1–2
🖵
56'
Davy Klaassen
Goal cancelled
⚽
1–3
60'
Julian Brandt
assist: Owen Wijndal
Jacob Ondrejka
⇄ Márk Csinger
67'
⇄
⚽
1–4
69'
Jorthy Mokio
⇄
74'
Julian Brandt
⇄ Abdellah Ouazane
⇄
74'
Marcos Leonardo
⇄ Tolu Arokodare
⚽
1–5
75'
Jorthy Mokio
assist: Davy Klaassen
⇄
82'
Oscar Gloukh
⇄ Rayane Bounida
⇄
82'
Davy Klaassen
⇄ Yves Bissouma
Thom van Bergen
83'
⚽
2–5
Tika de Jonge
⇄ Nils Eggens
83'
⇄
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson
⇄ Tygo Land
83'
⇄
David van der Werff
⇄ Ryan Metu
83'
⇄
Marco Rente
⇄ Wouter Prins
83'
⇄
▮
90'
Lucas Rosa
Yellow Card
Thom van Bergen
Missed Penalty
90+1'
✗
FT 2–5
Groningen
Match Stats
Ajax
57%
Ball Possession
43%
2.21
Expected Goals (xG)
2.86
16
Total Shots
15
5
Shots on Goal
11
3
Shots off Goal
1
8
Blocked Shots
3
8
Shots insidebox
13
8
Shots outsidebox
2
7
Corner Kicks
4
1
Offsides
4
12
Fouls
17
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3
438
Total passes
449
376
Passes accurate
392
17
Free Kicks
12
Groningen
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson F | 7.5 | 83' | 1 | – | 1 | 14 (10%) | – |
| 34 Ryan Metu F | 6.8 | 7' | – | – | 1 | 1 (1%) | – |
| 26 Thom van Bergen M | 6.7 | 90' | 1 | – | 4 | 16 (14%) | 2 |
| 20 Nils Eggens F | 6.6 | 7' | – | – | – | 5 (5%) | – |
| 8 Tika de Jonge M | 6.5 | 83' | – | – | 2 | 37 (32%) | – |
| 1 Etienne Vaessen G | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 33 (24%) | – |
| 24 Pelle Clement M | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 40 (36%) | 2 |
| 33 Hans Hateboer D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 61 (56%) | 3 |
| 17 David van der Werff M | 6.2 | 83' | – | – | 3 | 26 (20%) | 4 |
| 3 Thijmen Blokzijl D | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 65 (57%) | 4 |
| 14 Jorg Schreuders D | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 42 (34%) | 2 |
| 11 Jacob Ondrejka M | 6.0 | 67' | – | – | 1 | 13 (10%) | – |
| 5 Marco Rente D | 5.9 | 83' | – | – | – | 48 (44%) | 1 |
| 18 Tygo Land M | 5.9 | 7' | – | – | – | 13 (10%) | – |
| 4 Márk Csinger D | 5.6 | 23' | – | – | – | 19 (18%) | 1 |
| 2 Wouter Prins D | 5.6 | 7' | – | – | – | 4 (4%) | – |
Ajax
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jorthy Mokio M | 8.9 | 90' | 2 | – | 3 | 37 (32%) | 1 |
| 8 Julian Brandt F | 8.7 | 74' | 2 | – | 2 | 40 (37%) | – |
| 30 Aaron Bouwman D | 7.3 | 90' | 1 | – | 1 | 53 (43%) | – |
| 5 Owen Wijndal D | 7.0 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 33 (31%) | – |
| 18 Davy Klaassen M | 7.0 | 82' | – | 1 | 2 | 26 (22%) | 2 |
| 36 Dies Janse D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 72 (69%) | 2 |
| 4 Sofyan Amrabat M | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 58 (53%) | 2 |
| 99 Tolu Arokodare F | 6.6 | 16' | – | – | 2 | 8 (6%) | – |
| 1 Marc-André Ter Stegen G | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 38 (29%) | – |
| 2 Lucas Rosa D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 31 (27%) | 4 |
| 38 Marcos Leonardo F | 6.5 | 74' | – | – | 2 | 11 (9%) | 1 |
| 43 Rayane Bounida F | 6.3 | 8' | – | – | – | 1 | – |
| 68 Abdellah Ouazane M | 6.2 | 16' | – | – | 1 | 4 (3%) | 1 |
| 10 Oscar Gloukh F | 6.1 | 82' | – | – | 1 | 33 (28%) | – |
| 28 Yves Bissouma M | 6.1 | 8' | – | – | – | 4 (3%) | – |
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Confidence
Medium (50%)
At a glance
Our lean
Difficult Ajax win or draw
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Groningen
LLDLW
Ajax
WWWWW
Last 3 meetings
Groningen · 1W 1D 1L
Match summary
In this Eredivisie clash, Groningen faces Ajax, with both teams bringing contrasting forms into the match. Ajax has historically dominated this fixture, boasting a superior head-to-head record and a strong attacking lineup, averaging over 2.5 goals per game this season. Groningen, while playing at home, has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match. The key for Groningen will be to tighten their defense and capitalize on any set-piece opportunities, while Ajax will look to maintain their aggressive offensive strategy to secure the win.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
26%
10%
Draw
24%
45%
Away
50%
45%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Groningen
B. Willumsson
8 gls
T. van Bergen
7 gls
Ajax
J. Brandt
6 gls
T. Arokodare
6 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Groningen vs Ajax
1
Groningen Wins
1
Draws
1
Ajax Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Mar 2026 | Groningen | 3 - 1 | Ajax |
| 02 Dec 2025 | Ajax | 2 - 0 | Groningen |
| 14 May 2025 | Groningen | 2 - 2 | Ajax |
Groningen — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov | H Sparta Rotterdam | L | 2 - 3 |
| 29 Oct | H Emmen | L | 0 - 2 |
| 25 Oct | A NEC Nijmegen | D | 2 - 2 |
| 18 Oct | H Ajax | L | 2 - 5 |
| 11 Oct | A Excelsior | W | 1 - 5 |
Ajax — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Nov | A Twente | W | 0 - 1 |
| 05 Nov | A FC Midtjylland | W | 1 - 6 |
| 31 Oct | H AZ Alkmaar | W | 1 - 0 |
| 25 Oct | A Sparta Rotterdam | W | 1 - 2 |
| 22 Oct | H Atalanta | W | 2 - 0 |
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Feyenoord
|
11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 33 | 12 | +21 | 25 |
| 2 |
Ajax
|
11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 30 | 13 | +17 | 24 |
| 3 |
PSV Eindhoven
|
11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 35 | 13 | +22 | 23 |
| 4 |
Twente
|
11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 10 | +18 | 23 |
| 5 |
AZ Alkmaar
|
11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 20 |
| 6 |
Fortuna Sittard
|
12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
| 7 |
Heerenveen
|
11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 18 |
| 8 |
GO Ahead Eagles
|
12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 |
Groningen
|
11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 24 | +2 | 15 |
| 10 |
Cambuur
|
11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 22 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 |
Utrecht
|
11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 12 |
| 12 |
Sparta Rotterdam
|
12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 |
PEC Zwolle
|
12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 |
NEC Nijmegen
|
11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |
Excelsior
|
12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 |
Telstar
|
12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 |
ADO Den Haag
|
12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |
Willem II
|
12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 40 | -29 | 3 |
Ajax
Formation: 4-3-3
Coach: Míchel
1
Stegen
5
Wijndal
36
Janse
30
Bouwman
2
Rosa
24
Mokio
4
Amrabat
18
Klaassen
10
Gloukh
38
Leonardo
8
Brandt
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | M. ter Stegen | G |
| 2 | Lucas Rosa | D |
| 30 | A. Bouwman | D |
| 36 | D. Janse | D |
| 5 | O. Wijndal | D |
| 18 | D. Klaassen | M |
| 4 | S. Amrabat | M |
| 24 | J. Mokio | M |
| 8 | J. Brandt | F |
| 38 | Marcos Leonardo | F |
| 10 | O. Gloukh | F |
Substitutes
| 99 | T. Arokodare | F |
| 15 | Y. Baas | D |
| 28 | Y. Bissouma | M |
| 43 | Rayane Bounida | F |
| 6 | T. Kehrer | D |
| 68 | A. Ouazane | M |
| 26 | M. Paes | G |
| 51 | C. Setford | G |
| 21 | Jofre Torrents | D |
| 11 | V. Tsygankov | F |
| 67 | Mohamed Abdalla | M |
Groningen
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: D. Lukkien
1
Vaessen
33
Hateboer
5
Rente
3
Blokzijl
14
Schreuders
24
Clement
8
Jonge
11
Ondrejka
26
Bergen
17
Werff
9
Willumsson
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | E. Vaessen | G |
| 14 | J. Schreuders | D |
| 3 | T. Blokzijl | D |
| 5 | M. Rente | D |
| 33 | H. Hateboer | D |
| 8 | T. de Jonge | M |
| 24 | P. Clement | M |
| 17 | D. van der Werff | M |
| 26 | T. van Bergen | M |
| 11 | J. Ondrejka | M |
| 9 | B. Willumsson | F |
Substitutes
| 19 | O. Zawada | F |
| 30 | P. Boevink | G |
| 4 | M. Csinger | D |
| 44 | Besnik Mashuku | M |
| 20 | Nils Eggens | F |
| 7 | T. Hernes | M |
| 18 | T. Land | M |
| 34 | R. Metu | F |
| 42 | J. Mosselaar | D |
| 16 | A. Nordin | M |
| 2 | Wouter Prins | D |
| 13 | L. Štubljar | G |