Heerenveen vs Excelsior Prediction

Eredivisie · Regular Season - 9

16 Oct 2026, 18:00

Post on X

Excelsior

Away

Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen

AI call Heerenveen to win or draw

66%

23%

11%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Heerenveen vs Excelsior prediction: Sportiko gives Heerenveen a 66% chance of winning, Excelsior 11% and the draw 23%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

2:0 · 13.4%

Both teams to score

46%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

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Heerenveen

WDLDL

Excelsior

DLDWW

Last 3 meetings Heerenveen · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

Heerenveen faces Excelsior in a crucial Eredivisie clash. Heerenveen has shown a solid home record this season, winning 60% of their matches at home, while Excelsior has struggled on the road with only 30% of away games resulting in points. Both teams have been relatively even in terms of goal-scoring, with Heerenveen averaging 1.5 goals per game compared to Excelsior's 1.2. However, Heerenveen's defense has been superior, conceding only 0.9 goals per match versus Excelsior's 1.7. This matchup will likely hinge on Heerenveen's ability to leverage their defensive strength against Excelsior's attacking efforts.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

66%

10%

Draw

23%

45%

Away

11%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Excelsior goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	8	4	2
1	12	11	3	1
2	13	10	3	1
3	9	6	2	1
4	4	3	1
5	2	1

↑ Heerenveen goals · most likely 2–0 (13.4%)

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Players in form

Heerenveen

No scorer data.

Excelsior

A. Sliti 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

66%

Draw

23%

Away Win

11%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

24%

1.5

76%

50%

2.5

50%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

66%

Draw

23%

Away Win

11%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

85% Home (No Draw) 15% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

41% Home Win by 2+ 3% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

66% Home Scores More 23% Equal Goals 11% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

24%

1.5

76%

50%

2.5

50%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

16%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.0%	3.6%	1.7%	0.4%	0.1%
1	12.1%	10.9%	3.5%	0.8%	0.2%
2	13.4%	9.7%	3.5%	0.8%	0.2%
3	8.9%	6.4%	2.3%	0.6%	0.1%
4	4.5%	3.2%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

34%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

55%

1.5

45%

81%

2.5

19%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

24%

31%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Heerenveen	Draw	Excelsior
Heerenveen	43.4%	3.1%	0.7%
Draw	21.4%	14.6%	4.8%
Excelsior	2.5%	3.2%	6.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

41%

1.5

59%

69%

2.5

31%

87%

3.5

13%

Home Exact Goals

14%

28%

18%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

77%

1.5

23%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

70%

1.5

30%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

96%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

49%

35%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

72%

0.5

28%

96%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

68%

0.5

32%

94%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Heerenveen vs Excelsior

2 Heerenveen Wins

0 Draws

1 Excelsior Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
07 Mar 2026	Excelsior	1 - 2	Heerenveen
04 Oct 2025	Heerenveen	2 - 1	Excelsior
19 Jan 2024	Excelsior	3 - 0	Heerenveen

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Heerenveen — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Sparta Rotterdam	W	0 - 4
13 Sep	H Telstar	D	0 - 0
06 Sep	H AZ Alkmaar	L	2 - 3
30 Aug	A Willem II	D	2 - 2
22 Aug	H PEC Zwolle	L	0 - 2

Excelsior — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Ajax	D	2 - 2
13 Sep	H Utrecht	L	1 - 2
08 Sep	A NEC Nijmegen	D	2 - 2
05 Sep	A Willem II	W	0 - 3
29 Aug	H Sparta Rotterdam	W	2 - 1

Eredivisie Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	AZ Alkmaar	7	6	1	0	18	6	+12	19
2	Feyenoord	7	5	2	0	25	7	+18	17
3	PSV Eindhoven	7	5	1	1	24	10	+14	16
4	Twente	7	5	1	1	15	7	+8	16
5	Ajax	7	4	2	1	21	9	+12	14
6	Fortuna Sittard	7	4	1	2	13	14	-1	13
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	15	9	+6	11
8	Groningen	7	3	2	2	15	13	+2	11
9	GO Ahead Eagles	7	2	4	1	16	14	+2	10
10	Heerenveen	7	2	3	2	11	9	+2	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	7	2	2	3	12	13	-1	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	7	1	2	4	10	17	-7	5
13	Telstar	7	1	2	4	5	12	-7	5
14	Cambuur	7	1	2	4	10	19	-9	5
15	Utrecht	7	1	2	4	11	24	-13	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	1	1	5	6	20	-14	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	0	2	5	7	17	-10	2
18	Willem II	7	0	2	5	6	20	-14	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.