Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction
FT
Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
AI call
Ajax to win or draw
71%
17%
12%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen prediction: Sportiko gives Ajax a 71% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen 12% and the draw 17%. Last updated 10 Oct 2026, 20:57.
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Timeline
Tolu Arokodare
assist: Jorthy Mokio
7'
⚽
1–0
Jorthy Mokio
Yellow Card
17'
▮
⚽
1–1
19'
Tjaronn Chery
Penalty
▮
33'
Bryan Linssen
Yellow Card
HT 1–1
▮
54'
Gabriel Brás
Yellow Card
Oscar Gloukh
⇄ Abdellah Ouazane
60'
⇄
Viktor Tsygankov
⇄ Simon Adingra
60'
⇄
Abdellah Ouazane
Yellow Card
67'
▮
⇄
72'
P. Schuurs
⇄ Ahmetcan Kaplan
⇄
73'
Bryan Linssen
⇄ Mitchel Bakker
Tolu Arokodare
⇄ Marcos Leonardo
73'
⇄
Lucas Rosa
⇄ Aaron Bouwman
73'
⇄
Owen Wijndal
⇄ Davy Klaassen
80'
⇄
⇄
82'
Kevin Kers
⇄ Jamiro Monteiro
⇄
82'
Tjaronn Chery
⇄ Willum Thor Willumsson
FT 1–1
Ajax
Match Stats
NEC Nijmegen
61%
Ball Possession
39%
1.77
Expected Goals (xG)
1.11
18
Total Shots
8
5
Shots on Goal
2
8
Shots off Goal
4
5
Blocked Shots
2
13
Shots insidebox
5
5
Shots outsidebox
3
4
Corner Kicks
4
1
Offsides
5
8
Fouls
13
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
4
480
Total passes
301
400
Passes accurate
217
13
Free Kicks
8
Ajax
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 Tolu Arokodare F | 7.9 | 73' | 1 | – | 2 | 17 (10%) | 1 |
| 8 Julian Brandt M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 57 (48%) | 1 |
| 4 Sofyan Amrabat M | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 64 (55%) | 3 |
| 7 Simon Adingra F | 7.1 | 30' | – | – | 1 | 9 (8%) | – |
| 24 Jorthy Mokio M | 7.0 | 90' | – | 1 | 1 | 25 (22%) | 3 |
| 10 Oscar Gloukh F | 6.9 | 60' | – | – | 4 | 26 (19%) | – |
| 15 Youri Baas D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 58 (53%) | – |
| 6 Thilo Kehrer D | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | – | 53 (47%) | 2 |
| 11 Viktor Tsygankov F | 6.7 | 60' | – | – | – | 19 (15%) | 1 |
| 2 Lucas Rosa D | 6.6 | 73' | – | – | 1 | 38 (34%) | – |
| 38 Marcos Leonardo F | 6.6 | 17' | – | – | 1 | 3 | – |
| 5 Owen Wijndal D | 6.5 | 80' | – | – | – | 32 (25%) | 1 |
| 30 Aaron Bouwman D | 6.4 | 17' | – | – | – | 15 (14%) | – |
| 1 Marc-André Ter Stegen G | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 49 (38%) | – |
| 18 Davy Klaassen M | 6.2 | 10' | – | – | – | 6 (6%) | – |
| 68 Abdellah Ouazane M | 6.2 | 30' | – | – | 3 | 9 (7%) | 1 |
NEC Nijmegen
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Gonzalo Crettaz G | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 34 (19%) | 1 |
| 9 Tjaronn Chery M | 6.8 | 82' | 1 | – | 1 | 27 (19%) | – |
| 4 P. Schuurs D | 6.7 | 72' | – | – | – | 27 (25%) | 1 |
| 10 Dušan Tadić M | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 24 (17%) | – |
| 21 Tobias Storm M | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 18 (11%) | 1 |
| 24 Deveron Fonville D | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 36 (27%) | 1 |
| 20 Noe Lebreton M | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 27 (20%) | 7 |
| 34 Kevin Kers M | 6.4 | 82' | – | – | 3 | 21 (16%) | 2 |
| 35 Jamiro Monteiro M | 6.3 | 8' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | 1 |
| 11 Willum Thor Willumsson M | 6.3 | 8' | – | – | – | 2 | – |
| 5 Mitchel Bakker D | 6.2 | 17' | – | – | – | 8 (5%) | 1 |
| 6 Darko Nejašmić M | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 26 (16%) | 1 |
| 30 Bryan Linssen F | 6.1 | 73' | – | – | – | 11 (7%) | – |
| 73 Gabriel Brás D | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 32 (27%) | 3 |
| 22 Ahmetcan Kaplan D | 5.9 | 18' | – | – | – | 5 (5%) | – |
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Confidence
High (71%)
At a glance
Our lean
Ajax to win or draw
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Ajax
WWWWW
NEC Nijmegen
WLDWD
Last 3 meetings
Ajax · 0W 2D 1L
Match summary
In this Eredivisie matchup, Ajax will face NEC Nijmegen on October 10, 2026. Ajax has historically dominated this fixture, boasting a strong attacking lineup and an impressive home record. NEC Nijmegen, while competitive, often struggles against top-tier teams, particularly in away matches. Key players to watch include Ajax's forward, who has been prolific this season, and NEC's defense, which will need to tighten up to prevent conceding goals. Overall, Ajax appears favored to secure a win based on their recent form and squad depth.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
71%
45%
Draw
17%
45%
Away
12%
10%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Ajax
J. Brandt
6 gls
T. Arokodare
6 gls
NEC Nijmegen
No scorer data.
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
0
Ajax Wins
2
Draws
1
NEC Nijmegen Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2026 | Ajax | 1 - 1 | NEC Nijmegen |
| 20 Dec 2025 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 - 2 | Ajax |
| 11 May 2025 | Ajax | 0 - 3 | NEC Nijmegen |
Ajax — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov | A FC Midtjylland | W | 1 - 6 |
| 31 Oct | H AZ Alkmaar | W | 1 - 0 |
| 25 Oct | A Sparta Rotterdam | W | 1 - 2 |
| 22 Oct | H Atalanta | W | 2 - 0 |
| 18 Oct | A Groningen | W | 2 - 5 |
NEC Nijmegen — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov | H Omonia Nicosia | W | 3 - 1 |
| 31 Oct | A Heerenveen | L | 1 - 0 |
| 25 Oct | H Groningen | D | 2 - 2 |
| 22 Oct | A Dinamo Zagreb | W | 2 - 4 |
| 18 Oct | H Fortuna Sittard | D | 2 - 2 |
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Feyenoord
|
11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 33 | 12 | +21 | 25 |
| 2 |
Ajax
|
11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 30 | 13 | +17 | 24 |
| 3 |
PSV Eindhoven
|
11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 35 | 13 | +22 | 23 |
| 4 |
Twente
|
11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 10 | +18 | 23 |
| 5 |
AZ Alkmaar
|
11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 20 |
| 6 |
Fortuna Sittard
|
12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
| 7 |
Heerenveen
|
11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 18 |
| 8 |
GO Ahead Eagles
|
12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 |
Groningen
|
11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 24 | +2 | 15 |
| 10 |
Cambuur
|
11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 22 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 |
Utrecht
|
11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 12 |
| 12 |
Sparta Rotterdam
|
12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 |
PEC Zwolle
|
12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 |
NEC Nijmegen
|
11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |
Excelsior
|
12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 |
Telstar
|
12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 |
ADO Den Haag
|
12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |
Willem II
|
12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 40 | -29 | 3 |
Ajax
Formation: 4-3-3
Coach: Míchel
1
Stegen
5
Wijndal
15
Baas
6
Kehrer
2
Rosa
8
Brandt
4
Amrabat
24
Mokio
10
Gloukh
99
Arokodare
11
Tsygankov
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | M. ter Stegen | G |
| 2 | Lucas Rosa | D |
| 6 | T. Kehrer | D |
| 15 | Y. Baas | D |
| 5 | O. Wijndal | D |
| 24 | J. Mokio | M |
| 4 | S. Amrabat | M |
| 8 | J. Brandt | M |
| 11 | V. Tsygankov | F |
| 99 | T. Arokodare | F |
| 10 | O. Gloukh | F |
Substitutes
| 28 | Y. Bissouma | M |
| 7 | S. Adingra | F |
| 18 | D. Klaassen | M |
| 38 | Marcos Leonardo | F |
| 68 | A. Ouazane | M |
| 26 | M. Paes | G |
| 36 | D. Janse | D |
| 20 | O. Edvardsen | F |
| 30 | A. Bouwman | D |
| 51 | C. Setford | G |
| 43 | Rayane Bounida | F |
| 21 | Jofre Torrents | D |
NEC Nijmegen
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: Jussi Leppälahti
1
Crettaz
24
Fonville
4
Schuurs
73
Brás
34
Kers
20
Lebreton
6
Nejašmić
21
Storm
10
Tadić
9
Chery
30
Linssen
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | G. Crettaz | G |
| 73 | Gabriel Brás | D |
| 4 | P. Schuurs | D |
| 24 | Deveron Fonville | D |
| 21 | T. Storm | M |
| 6 | D. Nejašmić | M |
| 20 | N. Lebreton | M |
| 34 | Kevin Kers | M |
| 9 | T. Chery | M |
| 10 | D. Tadić | M |
| 30 | B. Linssen | F |
Substitutes
| 11 | W. Willumsson | M |
| 19 | Adam Tahaui | F |
| 12 | N. Polster | G |
| 42 | Y. Moslih | D |
| 35 | Jamiro Monteiro | M |
| 22 | A. Kaplan | D |
| 8 | I. Hansen-Aarøen | M |
| 36 | Freek Entius | G |
| 99 | Clement Bischoff | F |
| 5 | M. Bakker | D |
| 66 | Almugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar | D |