Willem II vs Heerenveen Prediction

Eredivisie · Regular Season - 4

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Heerenveen

Away

Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg

AI call Heerenveen or draw

26%

25%

48%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Willem II vs Heerenveen prediction: Sportiko gives Willem II a 26% chance of winning, Heerenveen 48% and the draw 25%. Last updated 30 Aug 2026, 14:28.

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Under 3.5 Goals 74%
2nd Half Over 0.5 73%
1st Half Draw or Away 74%

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Timeline

HT 0–0

Justin Hoogma ⇄ Mats Lemmens

46' ⇄

Uriel van Aalst assist: Nathan Tjoe-A-On

61' ⚽ 1–0

Eser Gürbüz ⇄ Per van Loon

62' ⇄

⚽ 1–1 64'

Jacob Trenskow assist: Dylan Vente

⇄ 69'

Nolhan Courtens ⇄ Luuk Brouwers

⇄ 69'

Ringo Meerveld ⇄ Levi Smans

⚽ 1–2 77'

Oliver Braude assist: Levi Smans

Devin Haen assist: Calvin Twigt

82' ⚽ 2–2

Nathan Tjoe-A-On ⇄ Alessandro Ciranni

85' ⇄

Calvin Twigt ⇄ Amine Et-Taibi

86' ⇄

⇄ 86'

Maxence Rivera ⇄ Luca Oyen

Kasper Boogaard ⇄ Thomas Verheydt

88' ⇄

FT 2–2

Willem II

Match Stats

Heerenveen

39% Ball Possession 61%

1.65 Expected Goals (xG) 1.18

12 Total Shots 13

5 Shots on Goal 5

5 Shots off Goal 5

2 Blocked Shots 3

8 Shots insidebox 11

4 Shots outsidebox 2

9 Corner Kicks 7

2 Offsides 2

9 Fouls 5

Yellow Cards

Red Cards

3 Goalkeeper Saves 2

319 Total passes 516

244 Passes accurate 452

76% Passes % 88%

0.29 goals_prevented 0.29

Willem II

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
9 Devin Haen F	7.9	95'	1	–	2	16 (11%)	1
6 Calvin Twigt M	7.5	85'	–	1	–	48 (38%)	2
24 Nathan Tjoe-A-On D	7.3	85'	–	1	–	24 (17%)	3
19 Uriel van Aalst M	7.3	95'	1	–	2	13 (11%)	1
5 Hidde ter Avest D	6.9	95'	–	–	1	29 (23%)	4
2 Alessandro Ciranni D	6.7	10'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
15 Amine Et-Taibi D	6.7	10'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
83 Mats Lemmens D	6.7	50'	–	–	–	11 (9%)	1
28 Thomas Verheydt F	6.7	8'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
8 Kasper Boogaard M	6.6	87'	–	–	1	24 (19%)	3
4 Justin Hoogma D	6.6	45'	–	–	–	36 (30%)	–
22 Per van Loon M	6.5	33'	–	–	–	7 (5%)	–
3 Finn Stam D	6.5	95'	–	–	–	37 (32%)	–
7 Jaden Slory M	6.3	95'	–	–	3	14 (12%)	2
31 Karst de Leeuw G	6.3	95'	–	–	–	38 (19%)	–
50 Eser Gürbüz M	6.2	62'	–	–	1	16 (13%)	2

Heerenveen

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
20 Jacob Trenskow M	8.5	95'	1	–	2	36 (32%)	2
45 Oliver Braude D	8.2	95'	1	–	3	63 (52%)	1
22 Bernt Klaverboer G	7.6	95'	–	–	–	43 (36%)	1
3 Maas Willemsen D	6.9	95'	–	–	–	95 (88%)	–
14 Levi Smans M	6.9	26'	–	1	–	4 (4%)	1
11 Luca Oyen F	6.7	10'	–	–	–	6 (6%)	–
6 Dirk Proper M	6.6	95'	–	–	–	50 (47%)	1
10 Ringo Meerveld F	6.6	69'	–	–	–	16 (12%)	1
4 Sam Kersten D	6.5	95'	–	–	–	71 (65%)	1
19 Vasilios Zagaritis D	6.5	95'	–	–	–	61 (52%)	–
8 Luuk Brouwers M	6.3	26'	–	–	2	11 (11%)	–
36 Nolhan Courtens M	6.3	69'	–	–	1	23 (21%)	–
9 Dylan Vente F	6.3	95'	–	1	–	17 (12%)	–
7 Maxence Rivera M	5.9	85'	–	–	2	21 (15%)	–

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Confidence Low (48%)

At a glance

Our lean

Heerenveen or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.1%

Both teams to score

54%

Over 2.5 goals

48%

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Willem II

LLDLD

Heerenveen

WDLDL

Last 3 meetings Willem II · 0W 1D 2L

Match summary

Willem II faces Heerenveen in a critical Eredivisie clash. Both teams are in search of consistency, with Willem II currently having a mixed form, having won 2 of their last 5 matches. Heerenveen, meanwhile, boasts a stronger offensive record, averaging 1.8 goals per game this season. Defensively, Willem II has struggled, conceding an average of 1.6 goals per game, which could be pivotal in this matchup. Expect a competitive game where Heerenveen’s attacking prowess may test the home side’s defense.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

26%

10%

Draw

25%

45%

Away

48%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Heerenveen goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9	9	8	4	1
1	7	14	9	4	2
2	5	7	5	2	1
3	2	3	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Willem II goals · most likely 1–1 (14.1%)

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Match Result

Away Win

48%

Home Win

26%

Draw

25%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

25%

1.5

75%

52%

2.5

48%

74%

3.5

26%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

48%

Home Win

26%

Draw

25%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

59% Away (No Draw) 41% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

21% Away Win by 2+ 12% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

42% Away Scores More 29% Equal Goals 29% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

25%

1.5

75%

52%

2.5

48%

74%

3.5

26%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Exact Goals

16%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.1%	9.1%	7.7%	3.7%	1.3%
1	7.0%	14.1%	9.0%	4.3%	1.6%
2	5.0%	7.2%	5.2%	2.5%	0.9%
3	1.9%	2.8%	2.0%	1.0%	0.4%
4	0.6%	0.8%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

64%

1.5

36%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

58%

1.5

42%

84%

2.5

16%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

27%

32%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Willem II	Draw	Heerenveen
Willem II	18.3%	5.1%	2.5%
Draw	10.1%	18.3%	16.0%
Heerenveen	1.3%	3.9%	24.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

68%

1.5

32%

89%

2.5

11%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

31%

36%

21%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

58%

1.5

42%

83%

2.5

17%

95%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

24%

34%

25%

12%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

81%

1.5

19%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Willem II vs Heerenveen

0 Willem II Wins

1 Draws

2 Heerenveen Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
04 Apr 2025	Heerenveen	3 - 1	Willem II
08 Dec 2024	Willem II	1 - 2	Heerenveen
05 Mar 2022	Willem II	0 - 0	Heerenveen

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Willem II — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Fortuna Sittard	L	0 - 1
15 Sep	A Ajax	L	5 - 1
11 Sep	A AZ Alkmaar	D	1 - 1
05 Sep	H Excelsior	L	0 - 3
30 Aug	H Heerenveen	D	2 - 2

Heerenveen — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Sparta Rotterdam	W	0 - 4
13 Sep	H Telstar	D	0 - 0
06 Sep	H AZ Alkmaar	L	2 - 3
30 Aug	A Willem II	D	2 - 2
22 Aug	H PEC Zwolle	L	0 - 2

Eredivisie Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	AZ Alkmaar	7	6	1	0	18	6	+12	19
2	Feyenoord	7	5	2	0	25	7	+18	17
3	PSV Eindhoven	7	5	1	1	24	10	+14	16
4	Twente	7	5	1	1	15	7	+8	16
5	Ajax	7	4	2	1	21	9	+12	14
6	Fortuna Sittard	7	4	1	2	13	14	-1	13
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	15	9	+6	11
8	Groningen	7	3	2	2	15	13	+2	11
9	GO Ahead Eagles	7	2	4	1	16	14	+2	10
10	Heerenveen	7	2	3	2	11	9	+2	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	7	2	2	3	12	13	-1	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	7	1	2	4	10	17	-7	5
13	Telstar	7	1	2	4	5	12	-7	5
14	Cambuur	7	1	2	4	10	19	-9	5
15	Utrecht	7	1	2	4	11	24	-13	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	1	1	5	6	20	-14	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	0	2	5	7	17	-10	2
18	Willem II	7	0	2	5	6	20	-14	2

Heerenveen

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: R. Veldeman

22 Klaverboer

19 Zagaritis

3 Willemsen

4 Kersten

45 Braude

6 Proper

36 Courtens

7 Rivera

10 Meerveld

20 Trenskow

9 Vente

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
22	Bernt Klaverboer	G
45	Oliver Braude	D
4	Sam Kersten	D
3	Maas Willemsen	D
19	Vasilios Zagaritis	D
36	Nolhan Courtens	M
6	Dirk Wanner Proper	M
20	Jacob Trenskow	M
10	Ringo Meerveld	M
7	Maxence Rivera	M
9	Dylan Vente	F

Substitutes

30	Timo Schreuder	G
44	Andries Noppert	G
17	Nikolai Soyset Hopland	D
23	Darling Bladi	D
41	Jimte Scholten	D
28	Hristiyan Petrov	D
14	Levi Smans	M
11	Luca Oyen	F
8	Luuk Brouwers	M
47	Kirayno Schaken	F
29	Lanroy Machine	F

Willem II

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: John Stegeman

31 Leeuw

24 Tjoe-A-On

4 Hoogma

3 Stam

5 Avest

6 Twigt

8 Boogaard

7 Slory

19 Aalst

50 Gürbüz

9 Haen

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
31	Karst de Leeuw	G
5	Hidde ter Avest	D
3	Finn Stam	D
4	Justin Hoogma	D
24	Nathan Tjoe-A-On	D
8	Kasper Boogaard	M
6	Calvin Twigt	M
50	Eser Gürbüz	M
19	Uriel van Aalst	M
7	Jaden Slory	M
9	Devin Haen	F

Substitutes

21	Wouter Van der Steen	G
41	Tygo Kotte	G
22	Per van Loon	M
2	Alessandro Ciranni	D
14	Jens Mathijsen	D
83	Mats Lemmens	D
15	Amine Et-Taibi	D
40	Divano Fernandez Iglesias	M
48	Julian van Esdonk	M
28	Thomas Verheydt	F