Lille vs Marseille Prediction

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 23

06 Mar 2027, 16:00

Post on X

Marseille

Away

AI call Lille to win or draw

66%

25%

10%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Lille vs Marseille prediction: Sportiko gives Lille a 66% chance of winning, Marseille 10% and the draw 25%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:0 · 16.5%

Both teams to score

36%

Over 2.5 goals

40%

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Lille

LWLWD

Marseille

LLLLL

Last 3 meetings Lille · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

Lille faces Marseille in an intriguing Ligue 1 clash, with both teams vying for crucial points in their pursuit of European competition. Lille's recent form shows a solid defense, having conceded an average of just 1 goal per match over the last five fixtures. Marseille, while boasting a potent attack, has struggled with consistency, particularly in away matches, where they have dropped points against lower-ranked teams. Key players to watch include Lille's top scorer, who has netted 10 goals this season, and Marseille's playmaker, who leads the league in assists. This matchup promises to be a tactical battle, with both teams aiming to assert their dominance in the midfield.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Marseille goals →

	0	1	2
0	11	4	1
1	16	11	3
2	16	8	2
3	9	5	1
4	4	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Lille goals · most likely 1–0 (16.5%)

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Players in form

Lille

Tiago Santos 2 gls

Marseille

A. Gouiri 4 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

66%

Draw

25%

Away Win

10%

Both Teams To Score

64% BTTS No 36% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

32%

1.5

68%

60%

2.5

40%

81%

3.5

19%

92%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

66%

Draw

25%

Away Win

10%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

87% Home (No Draw) 13% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

39% Home Win by 2+ 2% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

66% Home Scores More 25% Equal Goals 10% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

32%

1.5

68%

60%

2.5

40%

81%

3.5

19%

92%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

64% BTTS No 36% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

21%

28%

21%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.3%	4.2%	1.5%	0.3%	0.0%
1	16.5%	10.8%	2.6%	0.5%	0.1%
2	15.7%	8.5%	2.3%	0.4%	0.1%
3	9.3%	5.0%	1.4%	0.2%	0.0%
4	4.1%	2.2%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

36%

35%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

63%

1.5

37%

86%

2.5

14%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

29%

34%

24%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Lille	Draw	Marseille
Lille	42.9%	2.8%	0.5%
Draw	22.5%	17.3%	4.5%
Marseille	1.8%	2.7%	5.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

48%

1.5

52%

75%

2.5

25%

90%

3.5

10%

Home Exact Goals

17%

30%

27%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

81%

1.5

19%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

90%

1.5

10%

98%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

58%

31%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

79%

0.5

21%

98%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Lille vs Marseille

2 Lille Wins

1 Draws

0 Marseille Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
22 Mar 2026	Marseille	1 - 2	Lille
05 Dec 2025	Lille	1 - 0	Marseille
04 May 2025	Lille	1 - 1	Marseille

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Lille — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Nice	L	2 - 1
13 Sep	H Estac Troyes	W	2 - 0
08 Sep	H Real Betis	L	2 - 3
03 Sep	A Toulouse	W	0 - 1
28 Aug	H Paris Saint Germain	D	2 - 2

Marseille — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Paris Saint Germain	L	1 - 2
17 Sep	A Beşiktaş	L	4 - 1
11 Sep	A Rennes	L	1 - 0
06 Sep	H Paris FC	L	2 - 3
30 Aug	A Monaco	L	2 - 0

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
2	Lyon	5	3	2	0	10	2	+8	11
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	8	3	+5	11
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8	4	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	8	9	-1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	2	2	1	8	7	+1	8
7	Angers	5	2	1	2	6	5	+1	7
8	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	10	10	0	7
9	Le Mans	5	1	3	1	9	9	0	6
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7	12	-5	6
11	Stade Brestois 29	5	1	2	2	7	8	-1	5
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5	6	-1	5
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7	9	-2	5
14	Nice	5	1	2	2	3	6	-3	5
15	Lens	5	1	1	3	9	9	0	4
16	Estac Troyes	5	1	1	3	4	11	-7	4
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7	8	-1	3
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	4	7	-3	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.