Lyon vs Marseille Prediction

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 14

13 Dec 2026, 19:45

Post on X

Marseille

Away

AI call Difficult Lyon win or draw

55%

26%

19%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Lyon vs Marseille prediction: Sportiko gives Lyon a 55% chance of winning, Marseille 19% and the draw 26%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.1%

Both teams to score

55%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

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Lyon

WWDWD

Marseille

LLLLL

Last 3 meetings Lyon · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming Ligue 1 clash, Lyon will face Marseille in what promises to be a competitive matchup. Both teams have shown strong attacking prowess this season, with Lyon averaging 1.8 goals per game and Marseille slightly ahead at 1.9. Defensively, Lyon has a slight edge, conceding only 1.1 goals per match compared to Marseille's 1.3. Key players to watch include Lyon's top scorer and Marseille's creative midfielder, who will be critical in determining the outcome. This fixture often produces close contests, making it essential for both sides to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

55%

10%

Draw

26%

45%

Away

19%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Marseille goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	7	4	3	1
1	9	12	5	2
2	10	10	5	2
3	6	6	3	1
4	3	3	1	1
5	1	1	1

↑ Lyon goals · most likely 1–1 (12.1%)

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Players in form

Lyon

E. Nuamah 3 gls

Z. Athekame 2 gls

Marseille

A. Gouiri 4 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

26%

Away Win

19%

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

45%

2.5

55%

68%

3.5

32%

84%

4.5

16%

94%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

26%

Away Win

19%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

74% Home (No Draw) 26% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

32% Home Win by 2+ 7% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

55% Home Scores More 26% Equal Goals 19% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

45%

2.5

55%

68%

3.5

32%

84%

4.5

16%

94%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Exact Goals

13%

25%

23%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.0%	4.4%	2.9%	1.0%	0.3%
1	9.1%	12.1%	5.5%	1.9%	0.5%
2	9.8%	10.0%	5.1%	1.7%	0.4%
3	6.1%	6.3%	3.2%	1.1%	0.3%
4	2.9%	2.9%	1.5%	0.5%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

61%

1.5

39%

86%

2.5

14%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

29%

33%

24%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

51%

1.5

49%

79%

2.5

21%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

22%

29%

27%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Lyon	Draw	Marseille
Lyon	35.5%	4.0%	1.3%
Draw	18.6%	15.4%	7.6%
Marseille	2.8%	4.1%	10.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

45%

1.5

55%

72%

2.5

28%

89%

3.5

11%

Home Exact Goals

16%

29%

27%

17%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

36%

37%

19%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

37%

92%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Lyon vs Marseille

1 Lyon Wins

0 Draws

2 Marseille Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
01 Mar 2026	Marseille	3 - 2	Lyon
31 Aug 2025	Lyon	1 - 0	Marseille
02 Feb 2025	Marseille	3 - 2	Lyon

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Lyon — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Rennes	W	4 - 0
16 Sep	A Anderlecht	W	1 - 2
12 Sep	A Paris FC	D	0 - 0
04 Sep	H Auxerre	W	3 - 1
29 Aug	H Le Havre	D	1 - 1

Marseille — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Paris Saint Germain	L	1 - 2
17 Sep	A Beşiktaş	L	4 - 1
11 Sep	A Rennes	L	1 - 0
06 Sep	H Paris FC	L	2 - 3
30 Aug	A Monaco	L	2 - 0

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
2	Lyon	5	3	2	0	10	2	+8	11
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	8	3	+5	11
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8	4	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	8	9	-1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	2	2	1	8	7	+1	8
7	Angers	5	2	1	2	6	5	+1	7
8	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	10	10	0	7
9	Le Mans	5	1	3	1	9	9	0	6
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7	12	-5	6
11	Stade Brestois 29	5	1	2	2	7	8	-1	5
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5	6	-1	5
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7	9	-2	5
14	Nice	5	1	2	2	3	6	-3	5
15	Lens	5	1	1	3	9	9	0	4
16	Estac Troyes	5	1	1	3	4	11	-7	4
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7	8	-1	3
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	4	7	-3	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.