Marseille vs Toulouse Prediction

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 9

31 Oct 2026, 16:00

Post on X

Toulouse

Away

AI call Marseille to win or draw

69%

23%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Marseille vs Toulouse prediction: Sportiko gives Marseille a 69% chance of winning, Toulouse 8% and the draw 23%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:0 · 17.7%

Both teams to score

32%

Over 2.5 goals

39%

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Marseille

LLLLL

Toulouse

WDLDL

Last 3 meetings Marseille · 1W 2D 0L

Match summary

Marseille faces Toulouse in a Ligue 1 clash on October 31, 2026. Both teams have shown inconsistent form, with Marseille currently positioned mid-table and Toulouse slightly lower. Marseille boasts a stronger offensive record, averaging 1.8 goals per game, while Toulouse struggles defensively, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per match. Key players to watch include Marseille's prolific forward and Toulouse's emerging playmaker, who could influence the game's tempo. This match is crucial for both teams as they seek to climb the standings.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

69%

45%

Draw

23%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Toulouse goals →

	0	1	2
0	11	4	1
1	18	10	2
2	17	8	2
3	10	5	1
4	5	2	1
5	2	1

↑ Marseille goals · most likely 1–0 (17.7%)

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Players in form

Marseille

A. Gouiri 4 gls

Toulouse

C. Tengstedt 3 gls

T. Jørgensen 2 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

69%

Draw

23%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

68% BTTS No 32% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

33%

1.5

67%

61%

2.5

39%

81%

3.5

19%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

69%

Draw

23%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

90% Home (No Draw) 10% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

42% Home Win by 2+ 2% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

69% Home Scores More 23% Equal Goals 8% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

33%

1.5

67%

61%

2.5

39%

81%

3.5

19%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

68% BTTS No 32% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

21%

28%

20%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.5%	3.6%	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%
1	17.7%	9.8%	2.0%	0.3%	0.0%
2	17.1%	7.9%	1.8%	0.3%	0.0%
3	10.4%	4.8%	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%
4	4.7%	2.2%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

72%

1.5

28%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

37%

35%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

30%

34%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Marseille	Draw	Toulouse
Marseille	45.3%	2.4%	0.3%
Draw	23.4%	16.7%	3.6%
Toulouse	1.7%	2.5%	4.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

46%

1.5

54%

73%

2.5

27%

90%

3.5

10%

Home Exact Goals

16%

30%

27%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

37%

92%

1.5

99%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

63%

29%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

81%

0.5

19%

98%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

78%

0.5

22%

97%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Marseille vs Toulouse

1 Marseille Wins

2 Draws

0 Toulouse Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
07 Mar 2026	Toulouse	0 - 1	Marseille
04 Mar 2026	Marseille	2 - 2	Toulouse
29 Nov 2025	Marseille	2 - 2	Toulouse

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Marseille — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Paris Saint Germain	L	1 - 2
17 Sep	A Beşiktaş	L	4 - 1
11 Sep	A Rennes	L	1 - 0
06 Sep	H Paris FC	L	2 - 3
30 Aug	A Monaco	L	2 - 0

Toulouse — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Le Havre	W	3 - 2
12 Sep	A Lorient	D	2 - 2
03 Sep	H Lille	L	0 - 1
29 Aug	A Stade Brestois 29	D	2 - 2
22 Aug	H Lyon	L	0 - 2

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
2	Lyon	5	3	2	0	10	2	+8	11
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	8	3	+5	11
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8	4	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	8	9	-1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	2	2	1	8	7	+1	8
7	Angers	5	2	1	2	6	5	+1	7
8	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	10	10	0	7
9	Le Mans	5	1	3	1	9	9	0	6
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7	12	-5	6
11	Stade Brestois 29	5	1	2	2	7	8	-1	5
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5	6	-1	5
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7	9	-2	5
14	Nice	5	1	2	2	3	6	-3	5
15	Lens	5	1	1	3	9	9	0	4
16	Estac Troyes	5	1	1	3	4	11	-7	4
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7	8	-1	3
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	4	7	-3	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.