Monaco vs Toulouse Prediction
Stade Louis-II, Monaco
AI call
Difficult Monaco win or draw
58%
24%
19%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Monaco vs Toulouse prediction: Sportiko gives Monaco a 58% chance of winning, Toulouse 19% and the draw 24%. Last updated 10 Oct 2026, 20:44.
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Timeline
E. Diop
assist: Aleksandr Golovin
29'
⚽
1–0
Matthis Abline
assist: E. Diop
38'
⚽
2–0
⇄
45'
Jacen Russell-Rowe
⇄ Sion Oppong
HT 2–0
Nazinho
Yellow Card
47'
▮
⚽
2–1
48'
Casper Tengstedt
Penalty
Denis Zakaria
⇄ Safouane Benzahra
51'
⇄
Aleksandr Golovin
Yellow Card
54'
▮
Mathys Detourbet
⇄ Folarin Balogun
58'
⇄
E. Diop
⇄ Stanis Idumbo Muzambo
58'
⇄
⚽
2–2
59'
Sion Oppong
assist: Casper Tengstedt
▮
70'
Cristian Cásseres Jr.
Yellow Card
⇄
71'
Ilyas Azizi
⇄ Niko Sigur
Vanderson
⇄ Jordan Teze
75'
⇄
Matthis Abline
⇄ Ansu Fati
75'
⇄
⇄
77'
Rafik Messali
⇄ Ismail Diallo
⇄
84'
Casper Tengstedt
⇄ Santiago Hidalgo
⇄
84'
Alexis Vossah
⇄ Aron Dønnum
▮
90+3'
Sion Oppong
Yellow Card
FT 2–2
Monaco
Match Stats
Toulouse
58%
Ball Possession
42%
1.14
Expected Goals (xG)
1.43
16
Total Shots
9
4
Shots on Goal
4
8
Shots off Goal
3
4
Blocked Shots
2
11
Shots insidebox
5
5
Shots outsidebox
4
4
Corner Kicks
4
0
Offsides
1
10
Fouls
16
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2
645
Total passes
466
574
Passes accurate
408
16
Free Kicks
10
Monaco
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37 E. Diop M | 7.9 | 58' | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17 (13%) | 4 |
| 11 Matthis Abline F | 7.7 | 75' | 1 | – | 3 | 7 (6%) | 1 |
| 8 Lamine Camara M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 78 (71%) | 2 |
| 15 Eric Dier D | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 117 (112%) | – |
| 2 Vanderson D | 7.1 | 75' | – | – | – | 49 (43%) | 3 |
| 17 Stanis Idumbo Muzambo M | 7.0 | 32' | – | – | 2 | 21 (20%) | 1 |
| 72 Sadibou Sané D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 86 (81%) | – |
| 31 Ansu Fati F | 6.9 | 15' | – | – | 2 | 7 (5%) | – |
| 10 Aleksandr Golovin M | 6.7 | 90' | – | 1 | 2 | 35 (28%) | 2 |
| 6 Denis Zakaria M | 6.5 | 51' | – | – | – | 35 (30%) | 3 |
| 7 Mathys Detourbet M | 6.5 | 58' | – | – | 2 | 26 (22%) | 2 |
| 4 Jordan Teze D | 6.4 | 15' | – | – | – | 12 (12%) | 1 |
| 47 Safouane Benzahra M | 6.4 | 39' | – | – | – | 37 (33%) | 1 |
| 1 Lukáš Hrádecký G | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 28 (22%) | – |
| 20 Nazinho D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 82 (72%) | – |
| 9 Folarin Balogun F | 6.0 | 32' | – | – | 1 | 5 (3%) | – |
Toulouse
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sion Oppong F | 7.8 | 44' | 1 | – | 1 | 10 (6%) | – |
| 20 Casper Tengstedt M | 7.2 | 84' | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 (9%) | 1 |
| 37 Ilyas Azizi M | 6.9 | 71' | – | – | 1 | 26 (26%) | 1 |
| 16 Guillaume Restes G | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 35 (28%) | – |
| 5 Seny Koumbassa D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 53 (51%) | 1 |
| 13 Jacen Russell-Rowe F | 6.5 | 46' | – | – | 1 | 12 (9%) | – |
| 9 Santiago Hidalgo F | 6.5 | 6' | – | – | – | 2 (2%) | – |
| 3 Mark McKenzie D | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 62 (58%) | 2 |
| 12 Christ Tapé D | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 46 (40%) | 2 |
| 22 Rafik Messali D | 6.4 | 77' | – | – | – | 38 (34%) | 1 |
| 8 Thomas Jørgensen M | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 26 (22%) | 2 |
| 6 Alexis Vossah M | 6.2 | 84' | – | – | – | 35 (33%) | 3 |
| 14 Niko Sigur M | 6.1 | 19' | – | – | – | 9 (9%) | – |
| 15 Aron Dønnum M | 6.1 | 6' | – | – | – | 7 (7%) | – |
| 94 Ismail Diallo D | 6.1 | 13' | – | – | – | 2 (1%) | 1 |
| 23 Cristian Cásseres Jr. M | 5.8 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 77 (61%) | 4 |
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Confidence
Medium (58%)
At a glance
Our lean
Difficult Monaco win or draw
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Monaco
WLDWL
Toulouse
WLDWD
Last 3 meetings
Monaco · 1W 2D 0L
Match summary
Monaco faces Toulouse in a Ligue 1 clash on October 10, 2026. Monaco has demonstrated strong attacking prowess this season, averaging 2.1 goals per match, while Toulouse has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match. The matchup will likely revolve around Monaco's ability to capitalize on Toulouse's defensive frailties. Additionally, Monaco's midfield control, boasting an average possession of 60%, could dictate the tempo of the game. Expect a competitive encounter, with Monaco aiming to leverage their offensive strength against Toulouse's inconsistent defense.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
58%
45%
Draw
24%
45%
Away
19%
10%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Monaco
Paris Josua Brunner
4 gls
Toulouse
C. Tengstedt
5 gls
T. Jørgensen
3 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Monaco vs Toulouse
1
Monaco Wins
2
Draws
0
Toulouse Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Toulouse | 2 - 2 | Monaco |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Monaco | 1 - 0 | Toulouse |
| 07 Mar 2025 | Toulouse | 1 - 1 | Monaco |
Monaco — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov | H FC Nordsjaelland | W | 2 - 0 |
| 01 Nov | A Paris FC | L | 3 - 1 |
| 25 Oct | H Lille | D | 1 - 1 |
| 22 Oct | H SC Freiburg | W | 3 - 0 |
| 18 Oct | A Lorient | L | 1 - 0 |
Toulouse — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Nov | H Strasbourg | W | 3 - 1 |
| 01 Nov | A Marseille | L | 2 - 0 |
| 25 Oct | H Estac Troyes | D | 0 - 0 |
| 16 Oct | A Le Mans | W | 0 - 3 |
| 10 Oct | A Monaco | D | 2 - 2 |
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Paris Saint Germain
|
10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 23 |
| 2 |
Paris FC
|
10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 20 |
| 3 |
Lille
|
9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 18 |
| 4 |
Lyon
|
9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 |
Rennes
|
9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 16 |
| 6 |
Marseille
|
9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 15 |
| 7 |
Monaco
|
9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 |
Nice
|
9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 |
Lens
|
9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 13 |
| 10 |
Toulouse
|
10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 |
Stade Brestois 29
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 12 |
| 12 |
Lorient
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 |
Strasbourg
|
10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 |
Auxerre
|
10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 |
Angers
|
9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 |
Estac Troyes
|
10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |
Le Mans
|
9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 18 |
Le Havre
|
9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 2 |
Monaco
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Filipe Luís
1
Hrádecký
20
Nazinho
15
Dier
72
Sané
2
Vanderson
6
Zakaria
8
Camara
7
Detourbet
10
Golovin
37
Diop
11
Abline
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | L. Hrádecký | G |
| 2 | Vanderson | D |
| 72 | Sadibou Sané | D |
| 15 | E. Dier | D |
| 20 | Flávio Nazinho | D |
| 8 | L. Camara | M |
| 6 | D. Zakaria | M |
| 37 | E. Diop | M |
| 10 | A. Golovin | M |
| 7 | M. Detourbet | M |
| 11 | M. Abline | F |
Substitutes
| 46 | A. Soubeir | M |
| 4 | J. Teze | D |
| 9 | F. Balogun | F |
| 47 | S. Benzahra | M |
| 31 | Ansu Fati | F |
| 17 | S. Idumbo-Muzambo | M |
| 16 | P. Köhn | G |
| 13 | C. Mawissa Elebi | D |
| 22 | M. Salisu | D |
Toulouse
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Seong-jae Kim
16
Restes
12
Tapé
3
McKenzie
5
Koumbassa
22
Messali
6
Vossah
23
Cásseres
37
Azizi
20
Tengstedt
8
Jørgensen
13
Russell-Rowe
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | G. Restes | G |
| 22 | R. Messali | D |
| 5 | S. Koumbassa | D |
| 3 | M. McKenzie | D |
| 12 | C. Tapé | D |
| 23 | C. Cásseres | M |
| 6 | A. Vossah | M |
| 8 | T. Jørgensen | M |
| 20 | C. Tengstedt | M |
| 37 | Y. Azizi | M |
| 13 | J. Russell-Rowe | F |
Substitutes
| 94 | I. Diallo | D |
| 15 | A. Dønnum | M |
| 9 | S. Hidalgo | F |
| 60 | M. Niflore | G |
| 19 | D. Odogu | D |
| 11 | S. Oppong | F |
| 31 | N. Schmidt | M |
| 14 | N. Sigur | M |
| 18 | M. Amougou | M |