Lille vs Estac Troyes Prediction
Lille vs Estac Troyes prediction: Sportiko gives Lille a 63% chance of winning, Estac Troyes 15% and the draw 22%. Last updated 13 Sep 2026, 14:55.
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Premium- Under 3.5 Goals 75%
- 2nd Half Over 0.5 74%
Match Report
Lille secured a comfortable 2–0 home victory over Estac Troyes in Ligue 1, despite the visitors dominating possession throughout. The match began with early drama as Hakon Arnar Haraldsson had a goal ruled out by VAR in the third minute, before Tiago Santos broke the deadlock on 18 minutes to give Lille a deserved lead at the break.
Troyes, who finished with 64% possession and 13 total shots, struggled to convert their territorial advantage into clear chances, managing just one shot on target. Lille's defensive solidity proved the difference, and Ethan Mbappé wrapped up the points in stoppage time to seal a clean sheet for the hosts. A yellow card for Olivier Giroud in the 82nd minute was a minor blemish on an otherwise controlled Lille display.
Our pre-match AI model had rated a Lille win as the most likely outcome at 63%, a call that proved correct. The result moves Lille forward in the early Ligue 1 standings, while Troyes will be frustrated by their inability to turn possession into goals.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Lille
Match Stats
Lille
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Tiago Santos D | 8.2 | 90' | 1 | – | 2 | 57 (51%) | 1 |
| 8 Ethan Mbappé M | 8.1 | 19' | 1 | – | 3 | 10 (8%) | – |
| 4 Alexsandro Ribeiro D | 7.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 115 (108%) | – |
| 3 Nathan Ngoy D | 7.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 91 (87%) | 1 |
| 14 Maurits Kjaergaard M | 7.5 | 29' | – | 1 | 1 | 20 (17%) | – |
| 7 Dilane Bakwa M | 7.4 | 71' | – | 1 | 2 | 37 (30%) | 1 |
| 6 Nabil Bentaleb M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 74 (66%) | – |
| 15 Romain Perraud D | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 69 (60%) | – |
| 10 Hakon Arnar Haraldsson M | 6.9 | 61' | – | – | – | 21 (18%) | 2 |
| 21 Benjamin André M | 6.8 | 4' | – | – | – | 4 (4%) | – |
| 17 Ngal'ayel Mukau M | 6.6 | 86' | – | – | – | 38 (34%) | 1 |
| 19 Başar Önal M | 6.6 | 71' | – | – | – | 26 (23%) | 2 |
| 28 Gaëtan Perrin F | 6.5 | 19' | – | – | 1 | 12 (10%) | – |
| 1 Berke Özer G | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 30 (22%) | – |
| 18 Ayase Ueda F | 6.3 | 71' | – | – | 3 | 16 (14%) | – |
| 9 Olivier Giroud F | 6.3 | 19' | – | – | – | 6 (5%) | – |
Estac Troyes
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Mouhamed Diop M | 6.8 | 75' | – | – | 1 | 38 (33%) | 5 |
| 22 Hugo Picard M | 6.7 | 80' | – | – | 1 | 22 (19%) | 3 |
| 33 Patrick Beach G | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 25 (11%) | – |
| 6 Adrien Monfray D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 42 (31%) | 2 |
| 4 Michel Diaz D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 37 (34%) | – |
| 39 Yacouba Kone F | 6.5 | 10' | – | – | 1 | – | – |
| 9 Jérémy Le Douaron F | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 19 (12%) | 2 |
| 23 Timothé Nkada F | 6.3 | 15' | – | – | – | 3 (3%) | – |
| 2 L. Maronnier D | 6.3 | 46' | – | – | – | 10 (6%) | 2 |
| 7 Kandet Diawara M | 6.2 | 75' | – | – | – | 18 (15%) | 3 |
| 17 Antoine Mille M | 6.2 | 80' | – | – | – | 31 (26%) | 3 |
| 29 Karim Dermane M | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 38 (34%) | 2 |
| 11 Iron Gomis M | 6.0 | 15' | – | – | – | 2 (2%) | – |
| 20 Renaud Ripart F | 5.9 | 10' | – | – | – | 4 (3%) | – |
| 31 Noah Donkor D | 5.9 | 44' | – | – | – | 15 (12%) | – |
| 3 Anis Ouzenadji D | 5.8 | 90' | – | – | – | 26 (18%) | 4 |
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Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Tiago Santos
2 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Lille vs Estac Troyes
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Jun 2023 | Estac Troyes | 1 - 1 | Lille |
| 15 Jan 2023 | Lille | 5 - 1 | Estac Troyes |
| 01 May 2022 | Estac Troyes | 3 - 0 | Lille |
Lille — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | A Nice | L | 2 - 1 |
| 13 Sep | H Estac Troyes | W | 2 - 0 |
| 08 Sep | H Real Betis | L | 2 - 3 |
| 03 Sep | A Toulouse | W | 0 - 1 |
| 28 Aug | H Paris Saint Germain | D | 2 - 2 |
Estac Troyes — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | A Angers | L | 2 - 0 |
| 13 Sep | A Lille | L | 2 - 0 |
| 06 Sep | H Strasbourg | L | 2 - 6 |
| 29 Aug | A Lorient | W | 1 - 2 |
| 22 Aug | H Paris FC | D | 0 - 0 |
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Monaco
|
5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 |
Lyon
|
5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 |
Paris FC
|
5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 |
Lille
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 |
Rennes
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 |
Paris Saint Germain
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 8 |
| 7 |
Angers
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 |
Strasbourg
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 |
Le Mans
|
5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 |
Auxerre
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 |
Stade Brestois 29
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 |
Lorient
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 |
Toulouse
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 |
Nice
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 |
Lens
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 |
Estac Troyes
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 4 |
| 17 |
Marseille
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3 |
| 18 |
Le Havre
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 |
Estac Troyes
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: S. Dumont
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | P. Beach | G |
| 2 | L. Maronnier | D |
| 6 | A. Monfray | D |
| 4 | M. Diaz | D |
| 3 | A. Ouzenadji | D |
| 8 | M. Diop | M |
| 29 | D. Karim | M |
| 7 | K. Diawara | M |
| 17 | A. Mille | M |
| 22 | H. Picard | M |
| 9 | J. Le Douaron | F |
Substitutes
| 36 | I. Soukouna | M |
| 41 | Enisio Carneiro | D |
| 31 | Noah Donkor | D |
| 11 | I. Gomis | M |
| 40 | H. Konaté | G |
| 39 | Y. Kone | F |
| 23 | T. Nkada | F |
| 20 | R. Ripart | F |
| 34 | Lassana Simakha | D |
Lille
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Horacio Melgarejo
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | B. Özer | G |
| 22 | Tiago Santos | D |
| 3 | N. Ngoy | D |
| 4 | Alexsandro Ribeiro | D |
| 15 | R. Perraud | D |
| 17 | N. Mukau | M |
| 6 | N. Bentaleb | M |
| 7 | D. Bakwa | M |
| 10 | H. Haraldsson | M |
| 19 | B. Önal | M |
| 18 | A. Ueda | F |
Substitutes
| 21 | B. André | M |
| 12 | O. Gill | G |
| 9 | O. Giroud | F |
| 14 | M. Kjærgaard | M |
| 8 | E. Mbappé | M |
| 23 | T. Nianzou | D |
| 28 | G. Perrin | F |
| 11 | O. Sahraoui | F |
| 24 | C. Verdonk | D |