AC Milan vs Fiorentina Prediction

Serie A · Regular Season - 18

06 Jan 2027, 17:30

Post on X

Fiorentina

Away

AI call Difficult Fiorentina win or draw

17%

30%

53%

Home Win Draw Away Win

AC Milan vs Fiorentina prediction: Sportiko gives AC Milan a 17% chance of winning, Fiorentina 53% and the draw 30%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

0:1 · 14.7%

Both teams to score

42%

Over 2.5 goals

37%

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AC Milan

WLDDW

Fiorentina

DWWLL

Last 3 meetings AC Milan · 1W 2D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming Serie A clash between AC Milan and Fiorentina, both teams will be looking to capitalize on their attacking strengths. AC Milan has shown a solid defensive record at home, allowing only 1.2 goals per game on average this season, while Fiorentina's offense has been inconsistent, scoring an average of 1.1 goals per game. Key players to watch include Milan's striker, who has been instrumental with a conversion rate of 20%, and Fiorentina's playmaker, leading in assists. This matchup may hinge on Milan's ability to control the midfield and limit Fiorentina's counter-attacks. Overall, it promises to be a tactical battle with significant implications for both teams’ standings.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Fiorentina goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	13	15	12	6	2	1
1	7	14	9	4	2
2	3	4	3	2	1
3	1	1	1
4
5

↑ AC Milan goals · most likely 0–1 (14.7%)

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Players in form

AC Milan

Diego Moreira 3 gls

A. Rabiot 2 gls

Fiorentina

Franco Mastantuono 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

53%

Draw

30%

Home Win

17%

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS No 42% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

34%

1.5

66%

63%

2.5

37%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

53%

Draw

30%

Home Win

17%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

75% Away (No Draw) 25% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

27% Away Win by 2+ 5% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

53% Away Scores More 30% Equal Goals 17% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

34%

1.5

66%

63%

2.5

37%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS No 42% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

13%

21%

28%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.7%	14.7%	11.9%	5.8%	2.1%
1	6.7%	13.6%	8.8%	4.3%	1.6%
2	3.1%	4.5%	3.3%	1.6%	0.6%
3	0.8%	1.1%	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%
4	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

38%

35%

19%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

65%

1.5

35%

88%

2.5

12%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

31%

34%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	AC Milan	Draw	Fiorentina
AC Milan	9.6%	3.6%	1.8%
Draw	7.8%	20.6%	19.5%
Fiorentina	0.9%	3.7%	32.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

96%

2.5

99%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

48%

35%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

72%

0.5

28%

96%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

94%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

57%

1.5

43%

82%

2.5

18%

94%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

23%

34%

25%

12%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

81%

1.5

19%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: AC Milan vs Fiorentina

1 AC Milan Wins

2 Draws

0 Fiorentina Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
11 Jan 2026	Fiorentina	1 - 1	AC Milan
19 Oct 2025	AC Milan	2 - 1	Fiorentina
05 Apr 2025	AC Milan	2 - 2	Fiorentina

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AC Milan — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Lecce	W	3 - 0
16 Sep	H Benfica	L	0 - 2
12 Sep	A Lazio	D	2 - 2
06 Sep	A Juventus	D	1 - 1
28 Aug	H Venezia	W	2 - 0

Fiorentina — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Napoli	D	1 - 1
15 Sep	H Pisa	W	3 - 0
11 Sep	A Venezia	W	2 - 4
05 Sep	H Torino	L	1 - 2
29 Aug	H Frosinone	L	0 - 3

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	AS Roma	5	4	1	0	14	3	+11	13
2	Inter	5	4	1	0	15	8	+7	13
3	Lazio	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
4	Cagliari	5	4	0	1	5	2	+3	12
5	AC Milan	5	3	2	0	10	4	+6	11
6	Frosinone	5	3	1	1	9	4	+5	10
7	Juventus	5	3	1	1	8	4	+4	10
8	Como	5	3	1	1	9	6	+3	10
9	Napoli	5	2	1	2	7	6	+1	7
10	Sassuolo	5	2	1	2	9	9	0	7
11	Atalanta	5	2	0	3	5	7	-2	6
12	Lecce	5	2	0	3	5	10	-5	6
13	Udinese	5	1	1	3	8	11	-3	4
14	Torino	5	1	1	3	5	8	-3	4
15	Parma	5	1	1	3	4	7	-3	4
16	Monza	5	1	1	3	8	12	-4	4
17	Fiorentina	5	1	1	3	6	12	-6	4
18	Bologna	5	0	2	3	3	6	-3	2
19	Genoa	5	0	1	4	3	10	-7	1
20	Venezia	5	0	0	5	4	13	-9	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.