Napoli vs Lazio Prediction
Napoli vs Lazio prediction: Sportiko gives Napoli a 41% chance of winning, Lazio 32% and the draw 27%. Last updated 8 Nov 2026, 13:25.
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Match Report
Lazio took the lead at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona when Davide Frattesi struck in the 28th minute, giving the visitors a deserved advantage they carried into half-time. The opening period was disrupted by early injuries, with Josip Šutalo and Nuno Tavares both forced off before the break, while Nuno Lang picked up a yellow card for the hosts.
Napoli levelled almost immediately after the restart through an Alfonso Pedraza own goal in the 48th minute, restoring parity and shifting the momentum. The second half grew increasingly fractious, with yellow cards shown to Billy Gilmour, Antonio Vergara, and later Pedraza himself, both Gilmour and Vergara subsequently withdrawn by their respective managers. Further changes followed, including the introductions of Rasmus Højlund and Kevin De Bruyne, but neither side could find a winner.
The final scoreline of 1–1 felt fair given the even surface stats — 15 shots apiece and identical corner tallies — though Lazio's expected goals figure of 2.44 against Napoli's 0.92 suggested the visitors were unfortunate not to leave with more. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Napoli win as the most likely outcome at 41%, a call that ultimately fell short as the points were shared.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Napoli
Match Stats
Napoli
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 Vanja Milinković-Savić G | 7.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 41 (30%) | – |
| 13 Amir Rrahmani D | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 51 (47%) | 5 |
| 16 Rafa Marín D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 64 (58%) | 2 |
| 21 Matteo Politano F | 6.9 | 16' | – | – | – | 12 (12%) | – |
| 31 Sam Beukema D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 53 (47%) | 3 |
| 8 Scott McTominay M | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 29 (28%) | 1 |
| 20 Lorenzo Lucca F | 6.6 | 16' | – | – | 2 | 3 (2%) | – |
| 23 Giovane F | 6.5 | 7' | – | – | 1 | 5 (4%) | – |
| 19 Rasmus Højlund F | 6.5 | 74' | – | – | 3 | 13 (5%) | – |
| 11 Kevin De Bruyne M | 6.3 | 83' | – | – | 1 | 33 (27%) | 1 |
| 26 Antonio Vergara M | 6.3 | 74' | – | – | – | 30 (23%) | 4 |
| 17 Mathías Olivera M | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 37 (31%) | 3 |
| 70 N. Lang F | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 29 (25%) | – |
| 6 Billy Gilmour M | 6.1 | 69' | – | – | – | 51 (42%) | – |
| 99 Frank Anguissa M | 6.0 | 21' | – | – | – | 9 (8%) | 2 |
Lazio
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Davide Frattesi M | 8.2 | 78' | 1 | – | 2 | 30 (27%) | 1 |
| 35 Christos Mandas G | 8.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 34 (23%) | – |
| 14 Tijjani Noslin F | 7.4 | 90' | – | 1 | 3 | 35 (31%) | 1 |
| 37 Josip Šutalo D | 7.1 | 33' | – | – | 1 | 20 (19%) | 1 |
| 25 Oliver Provstgaard D | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 64 (61%) | 1 |
| 21 Reda Belahyane M | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 76 (71%) | – |
| 2 Diogo Leite D | 7.0 | 57' | – | – | – | 52 (49%) | 1 |
| 22 Matteo Cancellieri F | 6.9 | 12' | – | – | 1 | 4 (3%) | – |
| 11 Gustav Isaksen F | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | 4 | 23 (17%) | – |
| 15 Romano Floriani Mussolini D | 6.6 | 61' | – | – | – | 17 (15%) | 1 |
| 17 Nuno Tavares D | 6.6 | 46' | – | – | 1 | 34 (25%) | 1 |
| 24 Kenneth Taylor M | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 47 (43%) | – |
| 23 Alfonso Pedraza D | 6.5 | 44' | – | – | – | 12 (8%) | – |
| 29 Manuel Lazzari M | 6.4 | 29' | – | – | – | 12 (10%) | 1 |
| 7 Fisayo Dele-Bashiru M | 6.3 | 29' | – | – | – | 10 (9%) | – |
| 9 Andrea Pinamonti F | 6.3 | 61' | – | – | – | 14 (10%) | – |
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At a glance
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Upgrade NowMatch summary
Live insights
Min 75: Still level at 1-1. Draw looking likely at 64.9%. Late goal chance: 39.6%.
Equalizer scored! Match now level at 1-1. Draw probability: 41.3%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.
Half-time: 0-1. Lazio leads. Win probability: 66.8%. Over 0.5 more goals: 76.9%.
Goal! Score now 0-1. Lazio win: 63.3%. BTTS: 67.1%.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
K. De Bruyne
4 gls
T. Noslin
4 gls
G. Isaksen
4 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Napoli vs Lazio
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | Napoli | 0 - 2 | Lazio |
| 04 Jan 2026 | Lazio | 0 - 2 | Napoli |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Lazio | 2 - 2 | Napoli |
Napoli — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Nov | H Lazio | D | 1 - 1 |
| 04 Nov | A FC Porto | L | 4 - 1 |
| 01 Nov | A Juventus | L | 2 - 0 |
| 28 Oct | A Monza | W | 1 - 4 |
| 24 Oct | H AS Roma | D | 3 - 3 |
Lazio — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Nov | A Napoli | D | 1 - 1 |
| 01 Nov | H Cagliari | W | 2 - 1 |
| 27 Oct | A Sassuolo | W | 2 - 6 |
| 24 Oct | H Parma | W | 2 - 1 |
| 18 Oct | A Juventus | W | 0 - 3 |
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Lazio
|
10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 8 | +16 | 28 |
| 2 |
AS Roma
|
11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 27 |
| 3 |
Inter
|
10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 13 | +13 | 25 |
| 4 |
Como
|
10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 23 |
| 5 |
AC Milan
|
10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 21 |
| 6 |
Frosinone
|
11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 20 |
| 7 |
Juventus
|
10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 8 |
Bologna
|
11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |
Cagliari
|
11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 |
Napoli
|
10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 |
Torino
|
11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 |
Genoa
|
10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 |
Atalanta
|
10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 |
Lecce
|
11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 |
Fiorentina
|
10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 |
Parma
|
11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 |
Sassuolo
|
11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 8 |
| 18 |
Monza
|
10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 7 |
| 19 |
Venezia
|
11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 6 |
| 20 |
Udinese
|
11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 5 |
Lazio
Formation: 4-3-3
Coach: G. Gattuso
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | C. Mandas | G |
| 15 | R. Floriani Mussolini | D |
| 37 | J. Šutalo | D |
| 25 | O. Provstgaard | D |
| 17 | Nuno Tavares | D |
| 16 | D. Frattesi | M |
| 21 | R. Belahyane | M |
| 24 | K. Taylor | M |
| 11 | G. Isaksen | F |
| 9 | A. Pinamonti | F |
| 14 | T. Noslin | F |
Substitutes
| 2 | Diogo Leite | D |
| 22 | M. Cancellieri | F |
| 32 | D. Cataldi | M |
| 7 | F. Dele-Bashiru | M |
| 5 | D. Doekhi | D |
| 71 | V. Farcomeni | M |
| 29 | M. Lazzari | M |
| 77 | A. Marušić | D |
| 40 | E. Motta | G |
| 23 | Pedraza | D |
| 3 | L. Pellegrini | D |
| 28 | A. Przyborek | M |
| 47 | D. Renzetti | G |
| 6 | N. Rovella | M |
| 63 | F. Serra | F |
Napoli
Formation: 3-5-2
Coach: M. Allegri
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | V. Milinković-Savić | G |
| 31 | S. Beukema | D |
| 13 | Amir Rrahmani | D |
| 16 | Rafa Marín | D |
| 26 | A. Vergara | M |
| 11 | K. De Bruyne | M |
| 6 | B. Gilmour | M |
| 8 | S. McTominay | M |
| 17 | M. Olivera | M |
| 19 | R. Højlund | F |
| 70 | N. Lang | F |
Substitutes
| 21 | M. Politano | F |
| 1 | A. Meret | G |
| 39 | Nikita Melnyk | M |
| 20 | L. Lucca | F |
| 40 | Claudio Lieto | D |
| 23 | Giovane | F |
| 14 | N. Contini | G |
| 99 | A. Zambo Anguissa | M |
| 36 | Milton Agustín Pereyra | F |
| 18 | F. Barido | M |
| 38 | A. Chiummariello | M |