AC Milan vs Bologna Prediction
AC Milan vs Bologna prediction: Sportiko gives AC Milan a 58% chance of winning, Bologna 17% and the draw 26%. Last updated 28 Oct 2026, 19:24.
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Match Report
AC Milan suffered a stunning home defeat to Bologna at San Siro, going down 2–4 in a match that defied the pre-match expectation of a Milan victory, which our AI model had rated at 58% probability. Bologna struck early through Samuel Mbangula in the eighth minute before Alphadjo Cissé turned the game on its head with two goals either side of the half-hour mark to give the visitors a 2–1 lead at the break, despite Milan enjoying 66% of possession.
The second half brought further chaos. An own goal from Davide Bartesaghi on the hour levelled matters at 2–2, only for Mbangula to restore Bologna's lead just two minutes later. Bartesaghi was substituted off almost immediately after his misfortune. Mbangula then completed a commanding personal display with a third goal in the 86th minute to seal an emphatic away win.
The underlying numbers told a tight story — Bologna's expected goals of 1.88 edged Milan's 1.75 — but the scoreline ultimately reflected a clinical visiting side who punished a Milan team unable to convert their territorial dominance into meaningful chances.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
AC Milan
Match Stats
AC Milan
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 Alphadjo Cissè M | 8.3 | 90' | 2 | – | 2 | 29 (23%) | – |
| 23 Fikayo Tomori D | 6.8 | 46' | – | 1 | 1 | 27 (24%) | 4 |
| 30 Ardon Jashari M | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 92 (87%) | 2 |
| 14 Luka Modrić M | 6.5 | 44' | – | – | – | 40 (39%) | – |
| 80 Yunus Musah M | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 64 (56%) | – |
| 31 Strahinja Pavlović D | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 109 (100%) | 2 |
| 2 Pervis Estupiñán D | 6.3 | 58' | – | – | 1 | 47 (40%) | 4 |
| 73 Francesco Camarda F | 6.2 | 27' | – | – | 2 | 8 (5%) | – |
| 11 Christian Pulišić M | 6.1 | 32' | – | – | 1 | 21 (18%) | – |
| 9 Gonçalo Ramos F | 6.1 | 87' | – | – | – | 17 (13%) | – |
| 5 Koni De Winter D | 6.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 107 (100%) | – |
| 13 Sankhoun Diawara D | 5.8 | 32' | – | – | – | 19 (17%) | 1 |
| 28 Christian Comotto M | 5.8 | 3' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | – |
| 20 Omari Hutchinson M | 5.7 | 58' | – | – | – | 21 (17%) | 1 |
| 16 Mike Maignan G | 5.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 45 (36%) | – |
| 33 Davide Bartesaghi M | 4.3 | 63' | – | – | – | 20 (13%) | 1 |
Bologna
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Samuel Mbangula F | 9.2 | 90' | 3 | – | 4 | 24 (22%) | 3 |
| 21 Jens Odgaard F | 7.2 | 90' | – | 1 | 2 | 15 (11%) | 1 |
| 20 Nadir Zortea M | 6.7 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 23 (19%) | 3 |
| 19 Lewis Ferguson M | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 49 (45%) | 2 |
| 28 Nicolò Cambiaghi F | 6.6 | 31' | – | – | 1 | 6 (6%) | 1 |
| 3 Arthur Theate D | 6.5 | 70' | – | – | – | 38 (33%) | 2 |
| 10 Federico Bernardeschi F | 6.5 | 59' | – | – | – | 21 (17%) | – |
| 41 Martin Vitík D | 6.4 | 32' | – | – | – | 6 (4%) | 1 |
| 33 Juan Miranda D | 6.3 | 31' | – | 1 | 1 | 10 (7%) | – |
| 4 Tommaso Pobega M | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 33 (23%) | 5 |
| 23 Abdel Rahim M | 6.2 | 59' | – | – | – | 15 (15%) | 1 |
| 5 Eivind Helland D | 6.1 | 11' | – | – | – | 4 (4%) | – |
| 16 Nicolò Casale D | 6.0 | 79' | – | – | – | 28 (19%) | – |
| 1 Łukasz Skorupski G | 6.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 26 (16%) | – |
| 14 Torbjørn Heggem D | 5.8 | 20' | – | – | – | 5 (5%) | – |
| 36 Matteo Darmian D | 5.6 | 58' | – | – | – | 24 (16%) | – |
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At a glance
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Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Most likely scores
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
A. Rabiot
5 gls
Diego Moreira
4 gls
A. Cissè
4 gls
No scorer data.
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: AC Milan vs Bologna
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Feb 2026 | Bologna | 0 - 3 | AC Milan |
| 14 Sep 2025 | AC Milan | 1 - 0 | Bologna |
| 09 May 2025 | AC Milan | 3 - 1 | Bologna |
AC Milan — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Nov | A Genoa | W | 0 - 2 |
| 05 Nov | H Ferencvarosi TC | L | 0 - 2 |
| 31 Oct | H Inter | W | 3 - 1 |
| 28 Oct | H Bologna | L | 2 - 4 |
| 25 Oct | A Udinese | W | 0 - 2 |
Bologna — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | A Parma | W | 1 - 2 |
| 31 Oct | H Monza | W | 2 - 1 |
| 28 Oct | A AC Milan | W | 2 - 4 |
| 24 Oct | A Cagliari | W | 0 - 2 |
| 17 Oct | H Inter | L | 1 - 3 |
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Lazio
|
10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 8 | +16 | 28 |
| 2 |
AS Roma
|
11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 27 |
| 3 |
Inter
|
10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 13 | +13 | 25 |
| 4 |
Como
|
10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 23 |
| 5 |
AC Milan
|
10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 21 |
| 6 |
Frosinone
|
11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 20 |
| 7 |
Juventus
|
10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 8 |
Bologna
|
11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |
Cagliari
|
11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 |
Napoli
|
10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 |
Torino
|
11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 |
Genoa
|
10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 |
Atalanta
|
10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 |
Lecce
|
11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 |
Fiorentina
|
10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 |
Parma
|
11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 |
Sassuolo
|
11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 8 |
| 18 |
Monza
|
10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 7 |
| 19 |
Venezia
|
11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 6 |
| 20 |
Udinese
|
11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 5 |
AC Milan
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Ruben Amorim
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | M. Maignan | G |
| 23 | F. Tomori | D |
| 5 | K. De Winter | D |
| 31 | S. Pavlović | D |
| 2 | P. Estupiñán | D |
| 80 | Y. Musah | M |
| 30 | A. Jashari | M |
| 20 | O. Hutchinson | M |
| 70 | A. Cissè | M |
| 33 | D. Bartesaghi | M |
| 9 | Gonçalo Ramos | F |
Substitutes
| 55 | Silvano Vos | M |
| 73 | F. Camarda | F |
| 41 | L. P. Bouyer | G |
| 28 | C. Comotto | M |
| 13 | S. Bocoum | D |
| 14 | L. Modrić | M |
| 40 | L. Ossola | M |
| 11 | C. Pulišić | M |
| 42 | F. Terracciano | D |
| 96 | L. Torriani | G |
| 35 | V. Vladimirov | D |
| 47 | N. Perera | D |
| 49 | Luka Menon | F |
| 48 | El Hadji Malick Cissé | D |
Bologna
Formation: 3-4-3
Coach: Arturo Ruiz
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ł. Skorupski | G |
| 36 | M. Darmian | D |
| 16 | N. Casale | D |
| 3 | A. Theate | D |
| 20 | N. Zortea | M |
| 19 | L. Ferguson | M |
| 4 | T. Pobega | M |
| 23 | R. Alhassane | M |
| 10 | F. Bernardeschi | F |
| 21 | J. Odgaard | F |
| 11 | S. Mbangula | F |
Substitutes
| 41 | M. Vitík | D |
| 25 | M. Pessina | G |
| 6 | N. Moro | M |
| 33 | Juan Miranda | D |
| 18 | M. Libra | M |
| 14 | T. Heggem | D |
| 72 | U. Happonen | G |
| 5 | E. Helland | D |
| 17 | O. El Azzouzi | M |
| 9 | A. Dovbyk | F |
| 8 | M. Amondarain | M |
| 28 | N. Cambiaghi | F |
| 43 | Luca Lo Monaco | M |