Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 24

03 Mar 2027, 19:30

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FSV Mainz 05

Away

AI call FSV Mainz 05 or draw

21%

29%

50%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction: Sportiko gives Werder Bremen a 21% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 50% and the draw 29%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.9%

Both teams to score

47%

Over 2.5 goals

42%

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Werder Bremen

WDWLW

FSV Mainz 05

WLWDW

Last 3 meetings Werder Bremen · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

In this Bundesliga clash, Werder Bremen faces FSV Mainz 05, with both teams aiming for crucial points. Bremen has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match this season, while Mainz's attack has been inconsistent, scoring only 1.1 goals per game. Both teams will look to exploit each other's weaknesses, but Bremen's recent form shows a slight edge, having secured more wins in their last five league matches compared to Mainz. Key players to watch include Bremen's leading scorer, who has netted 8 goals this season, and Mainz’s playmaker, who has been pivotal in creating chances. This match could be pivotal for both sides as they fight for mid-table supremacy.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

21%

45%

Draw

29%

45%

Away

50%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

FSV Mainz 05 goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	11	12	10	5	2	1
1	7	14	9	5	2	1
2	4	5	4	2	1
3	1	2	1	1
4
5

↑ Werder Bremen goals · most likely 1–1 (13.9%)

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Players in form

Werder Bremen

N. Füllkrug 3 gls

M. Grüll 2 gls

FSV Mainz 05

P. Tietz 4 gls

S. Becker 2 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

50%

Draw

29%

Home Win

21%

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS No 47% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

50%

Draw

29%

Home Win

21%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

70% Away (No Draw) 30% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

26% Away Win by 2+ 7% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

50% Away Scores More 29% Equal Goals 21% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS No 47% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

19%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.8%	12.2%	10.4%	5.2%	1.9%
1	6.6%	13.9%	9.2%	4.6%	1.7%
2	3.7%	5.5%	4.1%	2.1%	0.8%
3	1.1%	1.6%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.2%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

65%

70%

1.5

30%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

36%

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

61%

1.5

39%

85%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

28%

32%

25%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Werder Bremen	Draw	FSV Mainz 05
Werder Bremen	11.7%	4.0%	2.1%
Draw	8.8%	19.3%	18.4%
FSV Mainz 05	1.1%	4.0%	30.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

94%

2.5

99%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

41%

37%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

67%

0.5

33%

94%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

56%

1.5

44%

81%

2.5

19%

94%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

22%

34%

25%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05

1 Werder Bremen Wins

1 Draws

1 FSV Mainz 05 Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
15 Mar 2026	Werder Bremen	0 - 2	FSV Mainz 05
01 Nov 2025	FSV Mainz 05	1 - 1	Werder Bremen
31 Jan 2025	Werder Bremen	1 - 0	FSV Mainz 05

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Werder Bremen — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H FC Augsburg	W	3 - 2
12 Sep	A 1. FC Köln	D	1 - 1
05 Sep	H RB Leipzig	W	3 - 1
30 Aug	A SC Freiburg	L	4 - 1
22 Aug	A Lüneburger SK Hansa	W	0 - 3

FSV Mainz 05 — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Borussia Mönchengladbach	W	3 - 4
12 Sep	H Eintracht Frankfurt	L	1 - 3
06 Sep	A Hamburger SV	W	0 - 5
29 Aug	H SC Paderborn 07	D	0 - 0
23 Aug	A Krieschow	W	0 - 9

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9	2	+7	12
2	Bayern München	4	3	1	0	14	2	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12	3	+9	10
4	FC Augsburg	4	2	1	1	11	6	+5	7
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10	5	+5	7
6	FSV Mainz 05	4	2	1	1	10	6	+4	7
7	SV Elversberg	4	2	1	1	8	7	+1	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	8	8	0	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9	5	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	9	10	-1	5
11	FC Schalke 04	4	1	2	1	3	4	-1	5
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	1	1	2	3	5	-2	4
13	1. FC Köln	4	1	1	2	6	9	-3	4
14	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7	10	-3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6	9	-3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2	13	-11	3
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4	17	-13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	0	0	4	6	16	-10	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.