SC Paderborn 07 vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 18

23 Jan 2027, 14:30

Post on X

FSV Mainz 05

Away

AI call FSV Mainz 05 to win or draw

20%

72%

Home Win Draw Away Win

SC Paderborn 07 vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction: Sportiko gives SC Paderborn 07 a 8% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 72% and the draw 20%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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76% 71%

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At a glance

Most likely score

0:2 · 15.6%

Both teams to score

39%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

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SC Paderborn 07

WLLDW

FSV Mainz 05

WLWDW

Last 3 meetings SC Paderborn 07 · 0W 1D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming Bundesliga clash, SC Paderborn 07 faces FSV Mainz 05. Paderborn has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.1 goals per match this season, while Mainz has shown resilience, allowing 1.5 goals per match. Offensively, Paderborn has a slight edge, scoring an average of 1.4 goals per game compared to Mainz's 1.2. Paderborn will need to capitalize on set pieces, as Mainz has been vulnerable in that area. This match could hinge on which team can better exploit defensive weaknesses and maintain possession.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

FSV Mainz 05 goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	14	16	11	6	2
1	3	9	9	6	3	1
2	1	2	3	2	1
3
4
5

↑ SC Paderborn 07 goals · most likely 0–2 (15.6%)

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Players in form

SC Paderborn 07

No scorer data.

FSV Mainz 05

P. Tietz 4 gls

S. Becker 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

72%

Draw

20%

Home Win

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS No 39% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

25%

1.5

76%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

72%

Draw

20%

Home Win

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

90% Away (No Draw) 10% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

47% Away Win by 2+ 2% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

72% Away Scores More 20% Equal Goals 8% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

25%

1.5

76%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS No 39% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

16%

26%

23%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.0%	13.6%	15.6%	11.0%	5.8%
1	2.9%	9.5%	8.9%	6.3%	3.3%
2	1.1%	2.4%	2.5%	1.8%	1.0%
3	0.2%	0.5%	0.5%	0.3%	0.2%
4	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

65%

1.5

35%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

31%

34%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

55%

1.5

45%

81%

2.5

19%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

24%

32%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	SC Paderborn 07	Draw	FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07	4.2%	2.6%	2.2%
Draw	3.5%	13.5%	22.7%
FSV Mainz 05	0.4%	2.5%	48.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

98%

2.5

100%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

57%

32%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

77%

0.5

23%

97%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

73%

0.5

27%

96%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

38%

1.5

62%

66%

2.5

34%

85%

3.5

15%

Away Exact Goals

12%

26%

28%

19%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

75%

1.5

25%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

67%

1.5

33%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: SC Paderborn 07 vs FSV Mainz 05

0 SC Paderborn 07 Wins

1 Draws

2 FSV Mainz 05 Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
29 Aug 2026	FSV Mainz 05	0 - 0	SC Paderborn 07
29 Feb 2020	FSV Mainz 05	2 - 0	SC Paderborn 07
05 Oct 2019	SC Paderborn 07	1 - 2	FSV Mainz 05

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SC Paderborn 07 — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H 1899 Hoffenheim	W	3 - 1
12 Sep	A Borussia Dortmund	L	3 - 0
05 Sep	H SC Freiburg	L	0 - 1
29 Aug	A FSV Mainz 05	D	0 - 0
23 Aug	A Phönix Lübeck	W	2 - 4

FSV Mainz 05 — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Borussia Mönchengladbach	W	3 - 4
12 Sep	H Eintracht Frankfurt	L	1 - 3
06 Sep	A Hamburger SV	W	0 - 5
29 Aug	H SC Paderborn 07	D	0 - 0
23 Aug	A Krieschow	W	0 - 9

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9	2	+7	12
2	Bayern München	4	3	1	0	14	2	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12	3	+9	10
4	FC Augsburg	4	2	1	1	11	6	+5	7
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10	5	+5	7
6	FSV Mainz 05	4	2	1	1	10	6	+4	7
7	SV Elversberg	4	2	1	1	8	7	+1	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	8	8	0	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9	5	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	9	10	-1	5
11	FC Schalke 04	4	1	2	1	3	4	-1	5
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	1	1	2	3	5	-2	4
13	1. FC Köln	4	1	1	2	6	9	-3	4
14	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7	10	-3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6	9	-3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2	13	-11	3
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4	17	-13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	0	0	4	6	16	-10	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.