VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 17

16 Jan 2027, 14:30

Post on X

FSV Mainz 05

Away

AI call VfB Stuttgart to win or draw

68%

22%

10%

Home Win Draw Away Win

VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction: Sportiko gives VfB Stuttgart a 68% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 10% and the draw 22%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

2:0 · 14%

Both teams to score

44%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

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VfB Stuttgart

LLWWL

FSV Mainz 05

WLWDW

Last 3 meetings VfB Stuttgart · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

VfB Stuttgart faces FSV Mainz 05 in a Bundesliga clash on January 16, 2027. Stuttgart has shown a strong offensive output this season, averaging 2.1 goals per match, while Mainz has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match. Stuttgart's attacking trio has been particularly effective, contributing significantly to their goal tally. Conversely, Mainz will need to improve their away form, as they have only secured 4 points from their last 6 away fixtures. This matchup could hinge on Stuttgart's ability to exploit Mainz's defensive vulnerabilities.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

68%

45%

Draw

22%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

FSV Mainz 05 goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	8	3	2
1	12	10	3	1
2	14	9	3	1
3	10	7	2	1
4	5	3	1
5	2	1

↑ VfB Stuttgart goals · most likely 2–0 (14.0%)

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Players in form

VfB Stuttgart

J. Vagnoman 2 gls

FSV Mainz 05

P. Tietz 4 gls

S. Becker 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

68%

Draw

22%

Away Win

10%

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS No 44% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

51%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

68%

Draw

22%

Away Win

10%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

87% Home (No Draw) 13% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

44% Home Win by 2+ 3% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

68% Home Scores More 22% Equal Goals 10% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

51%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS No 44% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

16%

26%

23%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.8%	3.3%	1.5%	0.3%	0.1%
1	12.4%	10.4%	3.1%	0.7%	0.1%
2	14.0%	9.5%	3.2%	0.7%	0.1%
3	9.6%	6.5%	2.2%	0.5%	0.1%
4	4.9%	3.4%	1.1%	0.3%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

34%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

55%

1.5

45%

81%

2.5

19%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

24%

31%

26%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	VfB Stuttgart	Draw	FSV Mainz 05
VfB Stuttgart	45.4%	2.9%	0.6%
Draw	21.6%	14.1%	4.4%
FSV Mainz 05	2.4%	3.0%	5.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

40%

1.5

60%

67%

2.5

33%

86%

3.5

14%

Home Exact Goals

13%

27%

28%

19%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

76%

1.5

24%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

69%

1.5

31%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

97%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

51%

34%

12%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

73%

0.5

27%

96%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

69%

0.5

31%

95%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05

1 VfB Stuttgart Wins

1 Draws

1 FSV Mainz 05 Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
07 Mar 2026	FSV Mainz 05	2 - 2	VfB Stuttgart
26 Oct 2025	VfB Stuttgart	2 - 1	FSV Mainz 05
25 Jan 2025	FSV Mainz 05	2 - 0	VfB Stuttgart

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VfB Stuttgart — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Borussia Dortmund	L	0 - 1
12 Sep	A 1899 Hoffenheim	L	2 - 1
09 Sep	H Viking	W	3 - 1
04 Sep	H 1. FC Köln	W	4 - 1
28 Aug	A Bayern München	L	5 - 1

FSV Mainz 05 — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Borussia Mönchengladbach	W	3 - 4
12 Sep	H Eintracht Frankfurt	L	1 - 3
06 Sep	A Hamburger SV	W	0 - 5
29 Aug	H SC Paderborn 07	D	0 - 0
23 Aug	A Krieschow	W	0 - 9

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9	2	+7	12
2	Bayern München	4	3	1	0	14	2	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12	3	+9	10
4	FC Augsburg	4	2	1	1	11	6	+5	7
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10	5	+5	7
6	FSV Mainz 05	4	2	1	1	10	6	+4	7
7	SV Elversberg	4	2	1	1	8	7	+1	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	8	8	0	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9	5	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	9	10	-1	5
11	FC Schalke 04	4	1	2	1	3	4	-1	5
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	1	1	2	3	5	-2	4
13	1. FC Köln	4	1	1	2	6	9	-3	4
14	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7	10	-3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6	9	-3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2	13	-11	3
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4	17	-13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	0	0	4	6	16	-10	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.