RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 12

05 Dec 2026, 14:30

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FSV Mainz 05

Away

AI call RB Leipzig to win or draw

65%

22%

12%

Home Win Draw Away Win

RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction: Sportiko gives RB Leipzig a 65% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 12% and the draw 22%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

2:0 · 12.4%

Both teams to score

49%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

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RB Leipzig

LWLLW

FSV Mainz 05

WLWDW

Last 3 meetings RB Leipzig · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

RB Leipzig enters this Bundesliga clash against FSV Mainz 05 with a strong home record, showcasing an average possession of 60% and a goal conversion rate of 15% this season. Mainz, struggling in the lower half of the league, has conceded an average of 2 goals per game on the road, which could be a significant factor. Leipzig's high pressing and effective counter-attacks may exploit Mainz's defensive vulnerabilities. If Leipzig maintains their attacking efficiency, they should be favored to secure three points in this matchup.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

FSV Mainz 05 goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	7	3	2
1	11	11	4	1
2	12	10	4	1
3	9	7	3	1
4	5	4	1
5	2	2	1

↑ RB Leipzig goals · most likely 2–0 (12.4%)

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Players in form

RB Leipzig

A. Nusa 2 gls

FSV Mainz 05

P. Tietz 4 gls

S. Becker 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

65%

Draw

22%

Away Win

12%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

46%

2.5

54%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

65%

Draw

22%

Away Win

12%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

84% Home (No Draw) 16% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

42% Home Win by 2+ 4% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

65% Home Scores More 22% Equal Goals 12% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

46%

2.5

54%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

14%

25%

23%

16%

10%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.9%	3.3%	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%
1	10.6%	10.7%	3.8%	1.0%	0.2%
2	12.4%	9.9%	4.0%	1.1%	0.2%
3	8.6%	6.9%	2.8%	0.7%	0.2%
4	4.5%	3.6%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

28%

33%

24%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

52%

1.5

48%

79%

2.5

21%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

22%

30%

27%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	RB Leipzig	Draw	FSV Mainz 05
RB Leipzig	43.6%	3.3%	0.8%
Draw	20.8%	13.8%	5.1%
FSV Mainz 05	2.6%	3.3%	6.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

39%

1.5

61%

67%

2.5

33%

86%

3.5

14%

Home Exact Goals

13%

26%

28%

19%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

76%

1.5

24%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

1.5

32%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

81%

1.5

19%

95%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

45%

36%

14%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

70%

0.5

30%

95%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

93%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05

1 RB Leipzig Wins

0 Draws

2 FSV Mainz 05 Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
31 Jan 2026	RB Leipzig	1 - 2	FSV Mainz 05
13 Sep 2025	FSV Mainz 05	0 - 1	RB Leipzig
01 Mar 2025	RB Leipzig	1 - 2	FSV Mainz 05

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RB Leipzig — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Bayer Leverkusen	L	2 - 0
13 Sep	H Hamburger SV	W	5 - 0
10 Sep	A Como	L	4 - 1
05 Sep	A Werder Bremen	L	3 - 1
29 Aug	H Borussia Mönchengladbach	W	3 - 0

FSV Mainz 05 — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Borussia Mönchengladbach	W	3 - 4
12 Sep	H Eintracht Frankfurt	L	1 - 3
06 Sep	A Hamburger SV	W	0 - 5
29 Aug	H SC Paderborn 07	D	0 - 0
23 Aug	A Krieschow	W	0 - 9

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9	2	+7	12
2	Bayern München	4	3	1	0	14	2	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12	3	+9	10
4	FC Augsburg	4	2	1	1	11	6	+5	7
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10	5	+5	7
6	FSV Mainz 05	4	2	1	1	10	6	+4	7
7	SV Elversberg	4	2	1	1	8	7	+1	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	8	8	0	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9	5	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	9	10	-1	5
11	FC Schalke 04	4	1	2	1	3	4	-1	5
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	1	1	2	3	5	-2	4
13	1. FC Köln	4	1	1	2	6	9	-3	4
14	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7	10	-3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6	9	-3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2	13	-11	3
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4	17	-13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	0	0	4	6	16	-10	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.