Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 9

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Borussia Mönchengladbach

Away

Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

AI call Hamburger SV or draw

40%

28%

32%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach prediction: Sportiko gives Hamburger SV a 40% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach 32% and the draw 28%. Last updated 6 Nov 2026, 21:24.

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Away to Score 74%
1st Half Home or Draw 75%

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Match Report

Hamburger SV claimed a 3–1 victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach in Matchday 9 of the Bundesliga, despite spending much of the contest chasing possession. Miro Muheim opened the scoring in the 11th minute, only for Robin Hack to level for the visitors before half-time. The tie was finely balanced at the break, but a pivotal moment arrived just four minutes into the second half when Ko Itakura, already booked in the 38th minute, received a second yellow card to leave Mönchengladbach with ten men.

Hamburg made their numerical advantage count swiftly. Shafiq Nandja put the hosts ahead in the 59th minute, and Albert Grønbæk added a third in the 70th minute to seal the points. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Hamburg win as the most likely outcome at 40%, and that call proved correct despite the hosts finishing with just 38% possession.

The expected goals figures — 2.47 for Hamburg and 2.36 for Mönchengladbach — reflected a competitive encounter that was ultimately shaped by Itakura's dismissal rather than a clear difference in quality between the two sides.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Miro Muheim assist: Albert Sambi Lokonga

11' ⚽ 1–0

▮ 38'

Ko Itakura Yellow Card

⚽ 1–1 44'

Robin Hack assist: Joe Scally

HT 1–1

▮ 49'

Ko Itakura Red Card

⇄ 56'

Robin Hack ⇄ Kevin Diks

Shafiq Nandja assist: Albert Grønbæk

59' ⚽ 2–1

Shafiq Nandja ⇄ Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit

63' ⇄

Martin Adeline ⇄ Terem Moffi

63' ⇄

Albert Grønbæk

70' ⚽ 3–1

Albert Grønbæk ⇄ Yussuf Poulsen

80' ⇄

Albert Sambi Lokonga ⇄ Kofi Jeremy Amoako

80' ⇄

⇄ 81'

Z. Uno ⇄ Jens Castrop

⇄ 81'

S. Machino ⇄ Isac Lidberg

⇄ 81'

Lukas Ullrich ⇄ Franck Honorat

Sebastiaan Bornauw ⇄ J. Bissi Mouelle

89' ⇄

▮ 90+2'

Jens Castrop Yellow Card

Warmed Omari Yellow Card

90+3' ▮

FT 3–1

Hamburger SV

Match Stats

Borussia Mönchengladbach

62% Ball Possession 38%

2.36 Expected Goals (xG) 2.47

18 Total Shots 19

9 Shots on Goal 6

7 Shots off Goal 11

2 Blocked Shots 2

10 Shots insidebox 9

8 Shots outsidebox 10

5 Corner Kicks 3

1 Offsides 1

6 Fouls 16

1 Yellow Cards 1

0 Red Cards 1

4 Goalkeeper Saves 6

553 Total passes 335

463 Passes accurate 247

15 Free Kicks 6

Hamburger SV

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
11 Albert Grønbæk F	9.0	80'	1	1	2	42 (30%)	2
28 Miro Muheim M	7.9	90'	1	–	4	72 (58%)	1
1 Daniel Heuer Fernandes G	7.2	90'	–	–	–	54 (43%)	–
6 Albert Sambi Lokonga M	7.2	80'	–	1	–	54 (48%)	2
38 Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit F	7.0	27'	–	–	1	8 (6%)	1
43 Shafiq Nandja D	6.9	63'	1	–	1	35 (27%)	–
7 Zakaria El Ouahdi M	6.8	90'	–	–	3	29 (26%)	1
3 David Møller Wolfe M	6.7	90'	–	–	2	56 (51%)	–
33 Sebastiaan Bornauw D	6.7	89'	–	–	–	52 (44%)	4
9 Terem Moffi F	6.6	27'	–	–	–	8 (7%)	–
15 Yussuf Poulsen F	6.6	10'	–	–	–	8 (8%)	1
17 Warmed Omari D	6.5	90'	–	–	–	69 (60%)	1
5 Martin Adeline M	6.4	63'	–	–	–	32 (27%)	1
22 Kofi Jeremy Amoako M	6.4	10'	–	–	1	9 (9%)	1
48 J. Bissi Mouelle D	6.4	1'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
27 Patson Daka F	6.0	90'	–	–	4	21 (16%)	1

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
25 Robin Hack M	7.5	56'	1	–	3	12 (10%)	1
29 Joe Scally M	6.7	90'	–	1	3	24 (18%)	–
3 Isac Lidberg F	6.7	9'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	1
33 Daniel Batz G	6.6	90'	–	–	–	41 (24%)	–
10 Florian Neuhaus M	6.5	90'	–	–	5	30 (24%)	3
18 S. Machino F	6.4	81'	–	–	1	18 (11%)	1
16 Philipp Sander D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	40 (35%)	2
36 Wael Mohya M	6.3	90'	–	–	2	24 (20%)	1
2 Fabio Chiarodia D	6.1	90'	–	–	1	46 (35%)	1
4 Kevin Diks D	6.0	34'	–	–	–	15 (13%)	1
26 Lukas Ullrich M	6.0	81'	–	–	1	14 (8%)	1
9 Franck Honorat M	5.8	9'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	–
17 Jens Castrop M	5.6	9'	–	–	–	5 (3%)	–
47 Z. Uno M	5.6	81'	–	–	2	26 (17%)	2
6 Ko Itakura D	4.9	49'	–	–	1	30 (23%)	2

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Confidence Low (40%)

At a glance

Our lean

Hamburger SV or draw

Most likely score

Both teams to score

Over 2.5 goals

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Hamburger SV

WLLLW

Borussia Mönchengladbach

LDWWL

Last 3 meetings Hamburger SV · 1W 2D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming Bundesliga clash on November 7, Hamburger SV will face Borussia Mönchengladbach at their home ground. Hamburger SV has shown a solid defensive record, conceding an average of 1.2 goals per match this season, while their attacking line has scored 1.5 goals per match. Conversely, Borussia Mönchengladbach has struggled with consistency, averaging 1.3 goals per match and conceding 1.6. This match could hinge on Hamburger SV's ability to exploit Gladbach's defensive vulnerabilities, especially if they maintain their home form. Both teams will aim to secure crucial points as they navigate the competitive league landscape.

Live insights

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Hamburger SV leads 3-1. Win probability: 99%. Comeback chance: 1%.

71' Goal 85% sure

Hamburger SV now leads 3-1 with 98.5% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 40.8%.

60' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 2-1. Hamburger SV win: 82.4%. BTTS: 100%.

45' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 1-1. Draw probability: 40.9%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 1-1. Teams level going into the 2nd half. Home win 2H: 32.2%, Away win 2H: 26.9%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

40%

45%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

32%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Hamburger SV

No scorer data.

Borussia Mönchengladbach

J. Scally 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

1 Hamburger SV Wins

2 Draws

0 Borussia Mönchengladbach Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
17 Jan 2026	Hamburger SV	0 - 0	Borussia Mönchengladbach
24 Aug 2025	Borussia Mönchengladbach	0 - 0	Hamburger SV
12 May 2018	Hamburger SV	2 - 1	Borussia Mönchengladbach

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Hamburger SV — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
06 Nov	H Borussia Mönchengladbach	W	3 - 1
01 Nov	A Eintracht Frankfurt	L	3 - 1
27 Oct	H Eintracht Frankfurt	L	1 - 3
24 Oct	A SC Paderborn 07	L	1 - 0
17 Oct	H VfB Stuttgart	W	1 - 0

Borussia Mönchengladbach — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
06 Nov	A Hamburger SV	L	3 - 1
31 Oct	H SC Paderborn 07	D	0 - 0
27 Oct	H Karlsruher SC	W	2 - 0
23 Oct	A VfB Stuttgart	W	2 - 3
18 Oct	H 1899 Hoffenheim	L	1 - 2

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	9	6	3	0	29	9	+20	21
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	6	3	0	16	7	+9	21
3	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	27	13	+14	18
4	SC Freiburg	8	5	1	2	18	10	+8	16
5	Werder Bremen	9	4	3	2	17	15	+2	15
6	Bayer Leverkusen	8	4	1	3	18	16	+2	13
7	SV Elversberg	9	4	1	4	17	18	-1	13
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	15	15	0	12
9	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	15	20	-5	12
10	Hamburger SV	9	4	0	5	10	20	-10	12
11	FSV Mainz 05	9	3	1	5	18	19	-1	10
12	SC Paderborn 07	9	2	4	3	8	11	-3	10
13	FC Augsburg	9	2	3	4	20	20	0	9
14	1899 Hoffenheim	8	3	0	5	14	16	-2	9
15	1. FC Köln	8	2	3	3	9	12	-3	9
16	Union Berlin	8	1	4	3	7	19	-12	7
17	FC Schalke 04	8	1	3	4	4	9	-5	6
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	1	1	7	12	25	-13	4

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: A. Blessin

33 Batz

2 Chiarodia

16 Sander

6 Itakura

26 Ullrich

10 Neuhaus

47 Uno

29 Scally

36 Mohya

25 Hack

18 Machino

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
33	D. Batz	G
6	K. Itakura	D
16	P. Sander	D
2	F. Chiarodia	D
29	J. Scally	M
47	Z. Uno	M
10	F. Neuhaus	M
26	L. Ullrich	M
25	R. Hack	M
36	W. Mohya	M
18	S. Machino	F

Substitutes

17	J. Castrop	M
4	K. Diks	D
20	D. Herold	D
9	F. Honorat	M
22	Y. Konoplya	D
3	I. Lidberg	F
34	M. Nguefack	M
23	J. Olschowsky	G
7	K. Stöger	M

Hamburger SV

Formation: 3-5-2 Coach: M. Polzin

1 Fernandes

17 Omari

33 Bornauw

43 Nandja

3 Wolfe

28 Muheim

6 Lokonga

5 Adeline

7 Ouahdi

11 Grønbæk

27 Daka

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Daniel Heuer Fernandes	G
43	S. Nandja	D
33	S. Bornauw	D
17	W. Omari	D
7	Z. El Ouahdi	M
5	M. Adeline	M
6	A. Sambi Lokonga	M
28	M. Muheim	M
3	D. Møller Wolfe	M
27	P. Daka	F
11	A. Grønbæk	F

Substitutes

48	J. Bissi Mouelle	D
37	L. Lemke	D
9	T. Moffi	F
15	Y. Poulsen	F
22	Kofi Jeremy Amoako	M
38	Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit	F
19	Otto Emerson Stange	F
12	S. Tangvik	G
23	J. Torunarigha	D