FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction: Sportiko gives FC Schalke 04 a 31% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 42% and the draw 27%. Last updated 17 Oct 2026, 15:32.
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Match Report
FSV Mainz 05 claimed a hard-fought 1–0 victory at Veltins-Arena to secure three Bundesliga points, with Phillip Tietz's 24th-minute strike proving the decisive moment. The goal gave Mainz a lead they would carry into half-time and ultimately protect for the full 90 minutes, despite a pair of yellow cards — for Nadiem Amiri and Kaishu Sano — adding some tension to the closing stages of the first half.
Schalke dominated possession at 54% and generated the better chances on paper, registering six shots on target against Mainz's three and posting an expected goals figure of 1.53 compared to just 0.33 for the visitors. Despite that statistical pressure, the hosts were unable to convert, with a flurry of second-half substitutions — including the introductions of Edin Džeko and Robin Gosens — failing to unlock a resolute Mainz defence.
Our pre-match AI model had identified a Mainz win as the most likely outcome at 42%, a call that proved correct. Mainz's disciplined defensive display ensured Tietz's early goal was enough to settle the contest.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
FC Schalke 04
Match Stats
FC Schalke 04
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Loris Karius G | 7.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 30 (13%) | 1 |
| 4 Hasan Kuruçay D | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 51 (39%) | 2 |
| 39 Maximilian Wöber D | 6.6 | 19' | – | – | – | 17 (9%) | – |
| 20 Junior Adamu F | 6.5 | 19' | – | – | – | 4 (2%) | 1 |
| 13 Satoshi Tanaka M | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 46 (38%) | 1 |
| 17 A. Gantenbein M | 6.4 | 60' | – | – | 2 | 13 (8%) | 2 |
| 25 Nikola Katić D | 6.3 | 71' | – | – | – | 28 (21%) | 1 |
| 29 Junior Dina Ebimbe M | 6.3 | 30' | – | – | 1 | 5 (4%) | 2 |
| 7 Hwang Hee-chan F | 6.2 | 30' | – | – | 1 | 9 (7%) | 1 |
| 33 Vitalie Becker D | 6.2 | 11' | – | – | – | 10 (6%) | – |
| 10 Edin Džeko F | 6.1 | 60' | – | – | – | 14 (7%) | – |
| 8 Robin Gosens M | 6.0 | 79' | – | – | – | 36 (26%) | 3 |
| 19 K. Karaman M | 5.9 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 22 (14%) | – |
| 5 Timo Becker D | 5.8 | 90' | – | – | – | 38 (21%) | 2 |
| 24 Adil Aouchiche M | 5.7 | 71' | – | – | – | 24 (16%) | – |
| 23 Soufiane El-Faouzi M | 5.5 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 42 (26%) | 2 |
FSV Mainz 05
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Phillip Tietz F | 8.1 | 89' | 1 | – | 3 | 28 (13%) | – |
| 48 Kacper Potulski D | 7.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 61 (52%) | 1 |
| 4 Stefan Posch D | 7.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 73 (59%) | 3 |
| 19 Anthony Caci M | 7.3 | 89' | – | 1 | – | 35 (23%) | 1 |
| 7 Jae-sung Lee M | 7.1 | 76' | – | – | 2 | 32 (26%) | 3 |
| 21 Danny da Costa D | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 42 (32%) | 3 |
| 30 Silvan Widmer D | 7.0 | 1' | – | – | – | 2 (1%) | – |
| 1 Alexander Schwolow G | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 37 (22%) | – |
| 5 Eric Martel M | 6.9 | 4' | – | – | – | 5 (3%) | – |
| 8 Paul Nebel M | 6.8 | 14' | – | – | – | 8 (5%) | – |
| 15 Lennard Maloney M | 6.8 | 1' | – | – | – | 3 (2%) | – |
| 6 Kaishu Sano M | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 50 (40%) | 2 |
| 11 Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer F | 6.5 | 14' | – | – | – | 8 (4%) | – |
| 10 Nadiem Amiri M | 6.4 | 86' | – | – | 1 | 33 (28%) | – |
| 23 Sheraldo Becker F | 6.3 | 76' | – | – | 4 | 16 (10%) | 1 |
| 2 Phillipp Mwene M | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 33 (22%) | 1 |
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At a glance
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Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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No scorer data.
P. Tietz
5 gls
A. Caci
3 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 May 2023 | FSV Mainz 05 | 2 - 3 | FC Schalke 04 |
| 09 Nov 2022 | FC Schalke 04 | 1 - 0 | FSV Mainz 05 |
| 05 Mar 2021 | FC Schalke 04 | 0 - 0 | FSV Mainz 05 |
FC Schalke 04 — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | H RB Leipzig | L | 0 - 2 |
| 28 Oct | A Dynamo Dresden | L | 2 - 0 |
| 24 Oct | A 1. FC Köln | D | 0 - 0 |
| 17 Oct | H FSV Mainz 05 | L | 0 - 1 |
| 11 Oct | A SC Freiburg | L | 2 - 1 |
FSV Mainz 05 — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | H Bayern München | L | 1 - 2 |
| 30 Oct | A SV Elversberg | L | 4 - 1 |
| 27 Oct | A VfL Bochum | L | 2 - 0 |
| 24 Oct | H Werder Bremen | L | 2 - 3 |
| 17 Oct | A FC Schalke 04 | W | 0 - 1 |
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bayern München
|
9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 9 | +20 | 21 |
| 2 |
Borussia Dortmund
|
9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
| 3 |
RB Leipzig
|
9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 13 | +14 | 18 |
| 4 |
SC Freiburg
|
8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 16 |
| 5 |
Werder Bremen
|
9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
| 6 |
Bayer Leverkusen
|
8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 13 |
| 7 |
SV Elversberg
|
9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 |
VfB Stuttgart
|
9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 |
Eintracht Frankfurt
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
| 10 |
Hamburger SV
|
9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 12 |
| 11 |
FSV Mainz 05
|
9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 |
SC Paderborn 07
|
9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 |
FC Augsburg
|
9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 |
1899 Hoffenheim
|
8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 |
1. FC Köln
|
8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 |
Union Berlin
|
8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 |
FC Schalke 04
|
8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 6 |
| 18 |
Borussia Mönchengladbach
|
9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 4 |
FSV Mainz 05
Formation: 3-5-2
Coach: U. Fischer
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | A. Schwolow | G |
| 21 | D. da Costa | D |
| 4 | S. Posch | D |
| 48 | K. Potulski | D |
| 19 | A. Caci | M |
| 10 | N. Amiri | M |
| 6 | K. Sano | M |
| 7 | Lee Jae-Sung | M |
| 2 | P. Mwene | M |
| 23 | S. Becker | F |
| 9 | P. Tietz | F |
Substitutes
| 3 | F. Gruber | D |
| 17 | B. Hollerbach | F |
| 40 | M. Kinzig | G |
| 11 | R. Königsdörffer | F |
| 15 | L. Maloney | M |
| 5 | E. Martel | M |
| 47 | R. Nakuzola | D |
| 8 | P. Nebel | M |
| 30 | S. Widmer | D |
FC Schalke 04
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: M. Muslić
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | L. Karius | G |
| 5 | T. Becker | D |
| 25 | N. Katić | D |
| 4 | H. Kuruçay | D |
| 17 | A. Gantenbein | M |
| 23 | S. El-Faouzi | M |
| 13 | S. Tanaka | M |
| 8 | R. Gosens | M |
| 19 | K. Karaman | M |
| 24 | A. Aouchiche | M |
| 10 | E. Džeko | F |
Substitutes
| 20 | J. Adamu | F |
| 43 | M. Ayhan | D |
| 33 | Vitalie Becker | D |
| 29 | J. Dina Ebimbe | M |
| 7 | Hwang Hee-Chan | F |
| 22 | K. Müller | G |
| 6 | R. Schallenberg | M |
| 38 | L. Vozar | M |
| 39 | M. Wöber | D |