FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 6

17 Oct 2026, 13:30

Post on X

FSV Mainz 05

Away

AI call FSV Mainz 05 or draw

28%

44%

Home Win Draw Away Win

FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction: Sportiko gives FC Schalke 04 a 28% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 44% and the draw 28%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 13%

Both teams to score

59%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

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FC Schalke 04

DWDLW

FSV Mainz 05

WLWDW

Last 3 meetings FC Schalke 04 · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

In the Bundesliga clash between FC Schalke 04 and FSV Mainz 05, both teams will be looking to secure vital points as they navigate the season. Schalke has demonstrated a strong home record, emphasizing their ability to capitalize on their attacking play, while Mainz has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2 goals per match in recent outings. The effectiveness of Schalke's midfield will be crucial in controlling the tempo and creating scoring opportunities. Conversely, Mainz must improve their defensive organization and find ways to exploit Schalke's vulnerabilities on the counterattack. This match is pivotal for both sides as they aim to improve their standings in the league.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

FSV Mainz 05 goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	8	7	4	2	1
1	6	13	9	5	2	1
2	4	7	6	3	1
3	2	3	2	1	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ FC Schalke 04 goals · most likely 1–1 (13.0%)

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Players in form

FC Schalke 04

No scorer data.

FSV Mainz 05

P. Tietz 4 gls

S. Becker 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

44%

Home Win

28%

Draw

28%

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS Yes 41% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

20%

1.5

80%

45%

2.5

55%

68%

3.5

32%

84%

4.5

16%

93%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

44%

Home Win

28%

Draw

28%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

61% Away (No Draw) 39% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

23% Away Win by 2+ 12% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

44% Away Scores More 28% Home Scores More 28% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

20%

1.5

80%

45%

2.5

55%

68%

3.5

32%

84%

4.5

16%

93%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS Yes 41% BTTS No

Exact Goals

13%

25%

23%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.1%	7.6%	7.5%	4.1%	1.7%
1	5.6%	13.0%	9.4%	5.1%	2.1%
2	4.5%	7.3%	5.9%	3.2%	1.3%
3	1.9%	3.1%	2.5%	1.4%	0.6%
4	0.6%	1.0%	0.8%	0.4%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

61%

1.5

39%

85%

2.5

15%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

28%

32%

25%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

52%

1.5

48%

79%

2.5

21%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

22%

29%

27%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	FC Schalke 04	Draw	FSV Mainz 05
FC Schalke 04	16.4%	4.5%	2.5%
Draw	10.6%	16.5%	15.5%
FSV Mainz 05	1.9%	4.5%	27.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

96%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

28%

36%

23%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

85%

1.5

15%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

52%

1.5

48%

78%

2.5

22%

92%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

20%

32%

26%

14%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05

2 FC Schalke 04 Wins

1 Draws

0 FSV Mainz 05 Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
05 May 2023	FSV Mainz 05	2 - 3	FC Schalke 04
09 Nov 2022	FC Schalke 04	1 - 0	FSV Mainz 05
05 Mar 2021	FC Schalke 04	0 - 0	FSV Mainz 05

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FC Schalke 04 — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H SV Elversberg	D	0 - 0
11 Sep	A Union Berlin	W	1 - 3
05 Sep	H Bayern München	D	0 - 0
30 Aug	A FC Augsburg	L	3 - 0
24 Aug	A Hallescher FC	W	2 - 5

FSV Mainz 05 — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Borussia Mönchengladbach	W	3 - 4
12 Sep	H Eintracht Frankfurt	L	1 - 3
06 Sep	A Hamburger SV	W	0 - 5
29 Aug	H SC Paderborn 07	D	0 - 0
23 Aug	A Krieschow	W	0 - 9

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9	2	+7	12
2	Bayern München	4	3	1	0	14	2	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12	3	+9	10
4	FC Augsburg	4	2	1	1	11	6	+5	7
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10	5	+5	7
6	FSV Mainz 05	4	2	1	1	10	6	+4	7
7	SV Elversberg	4	2	1	1	8	7	+1	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	8	8	0	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9	5	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	9	10	-1	5
11	FC Schalke 04	4	1	2	1	3	4	-1	5
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	1	1	2	3	5	-2	4
13	1. FC Köln	4	1	1	2	6	9	-3	4
14	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7	10	-3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6	9	-3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2	13	-11	3
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4	17	-13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	0	0	4	6	16	-10	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.