Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg Prediction
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg prediction: Sportiko gives Bayer Leverkusen a 57% chance of winning, SC Freiburg 20% and the draw 23%. Last updated 18 Oct 2026, 15:28.
Premium picks
Premium- Away to Score 71%
Match Report
Bayer Leverkusen edged SC Freiburg 2–1 in a closely contested Bundesliga encounter that swung back and forth before being settled in the second half. Freiburg drew first blood through Derry Scherhant in the 14th minute, only for Ibrahim Maza to level matters just five minutes later, sending the sides into the break level at 1–1.
The decisive moment came in the 76th minute when Patrik Schick converted to hand Leverkusen the lead for the first time, proving the difference between the two sides. The stats told an interesting story — Freiburg actually outperformed their hosts in shots on goal (5–2) and expected goals (1.67 to 0.88), yet it was Leverkusen who found a way to win. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Leverkusen victory as the most likely outcome at 57%, a call that proved correct.
The result moves Leverkusen to six games played in the Bundesliga season with a hard-fought three points, while Freiburg will feel aggrieved to have left empty-handed despite the more threatening attacking display across the 90 minutes.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Bayer Leverkusen
Match Stats
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Patrik Schick F | 8.7 | 90' | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 (15%) | 1 |
| 30 Ibrahim Maza M | 8.5 | 84' | 1 | 1 | 2 | 33 (30%) | 1 |
| 1 M. Flekken G | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 31 (26%) | – |
| 12 Edmond Tapsoba D | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | – | 67 (60%) | – |
| 24 Aleix García M | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 76 (71%) | 1 |
| 6 Ezequiel Fernández M | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 45 (37%) | 10 |
| 3 Miguel Gutiérrez D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 27 (23%) | – |
| 23 Nathan Tella F | 6.6 | 31' | – | – | 2 | 10 (9%) | – |
| 2 Facundo Medina D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 74 (61%) | 2 |
| 4 Jarell Quansah D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 50 (42%) | 1 |
| 19 Moussa Diaby M | 6.3 | 73' | – | – | – | 26 (17%) | – |
| 9 Afonso Moreira M | 6.3 | 59' | – | – | 2 | 19 (17%) | – |
| 10 Malik Tillman M | 6.2 | 17' | – | – | – | 9 (8%) | – |
| 7 Jonas Hofmann M | 6.2 | 6' | – | – | – | 1 | – |
SC Freiburg
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Derry Scherhant M | 8.1 | 89' | 1 | – | 1 | 23 (21%) | 1 |
| 3 Philipp Lienhart D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 72 (65%) | 3 |
| 1 Mio Backhaus G | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | – | 40 (33%) | – |
| 33 Jordy Makengo D | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | – | 40 (35%) | – |
| 28 Matthias Ginter D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 62 (56%) | 1 |
| 29 Philipp Treu D | 6.7 | 64' | – | 1 | – | 37 (35%) | 2 |
| 22 Cyriaque Irié F | 6.6 | 13' | – | – | 2 | 7 (4%) | – |
| 8 Maximilian Eggestein M | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 57 (49%) | 1 |
| 9 Lucas Höler F | 6.3 | 25' | – | – | 1 | 11 (10%) | – |
| 19 Jan-Niklas Beste M | 6.3 | 77' | – | – | 1 | 25 (20%) | – |
| 17 Lukas Kübler D | 6.2 | 26' | – | – | – | 11 (6%) | 1 |
| 31 Igor Matanović F | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 33 (24%) | 2 |
| 6 Patrick Osterhage M | 6.1 | 13' | – | – | 1 | 6 (6%) | – |
| 16 Yannik Engelhardt M | 6.0 | 77' | – | – | – | 69 (58%) | 1 |
| 32 Vincenzo Grifo M | 6.0 | 1' | – | – | – | 3 (3%) | – |
| 42 Keisuke Goto M | 5.9 | 65' | – | – | 1 | 12 (7%) | 1 |
Unlock the AI's full read on Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg
- All 70+ probability markets
- AI Deep-Dive match report
- Pick types you choose
At a glance
Unlock all 70+ probability models
Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.
Upgrade NowMatch summary
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
Unlock all 70+ probability models
Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.
Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
Unlock all 70+ probability models
Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.
Upgrade NowPlayers in form
P. Schick
7 gls
I. Maza
3 gls
I. Matanović
4 gls
Y. Suzuki
4 gls
You're seeing the free 1X2 result — unlock all 70+ models: goals, both-teams-to-score, the correct-score grid, handicaps, halves & more.
Unlock all modelsUnlock all 70+ probability models
Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.
Upgrade NowHead to Head: Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Mar 2026 | SC Freiburg | 3 - 3 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 - 0 | SC Freiburg |
| 04 May 2025 | SC Freiburg | 2 - 2 | Bayer Leverkusen |
Bayer Leverkusen — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov | H Marseille | L | 0 - 1 |
| 31 Oct | H VfB Stuttgart | L | 2 - 4 |
| 28 Oct | H 1. FC Nürnberg | W | 5 - 2 |
| 25 Oct | A 1899 Hoffenheim | L | 3 - 0 |
| 22 Oct | A OFI | W | 0 - 2 |
SC Freiburg — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov | A Trabzonspor | W | 0 - 1 |
| 31 Oct | A FC Augsburg | W | 1 - 2 |
| 28 Oct | H VfL Wolfsburg | W | 3 - 2 |
| 25 Oct | H Bayern München | L | 1 - 3 |
| 22 Oct | A Monaco | L | 3 - 0 |
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bayern München
|
9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 9 | +20 | 21 |
| 2 |
Borussia Dortmund
|
9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
| 3 |
RB Leipzig
|
9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 13 | +14 | 18 |
| 4 |
SC Freiburg
|
8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 16 |
| 5 |
Werder Bremen
|
9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
| 6 |
Bayer Leverkusen
|
8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 13 |
| 7 |
SV Elversberg
|
9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 |
VfB Stuttgart
|
9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 |
Eintracht Frankfurt
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
| 10 |
Hamburger SV
|
9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 12 |
| 11 |
FSV Mainz 05
|
9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 |
SC Paderborn 07
|
9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 |
FC Augsburg
|
9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 |
1899 Hoffenheim
|
8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 |
1. FC Köln
|
8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 |
Union Berlin
|
8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 |
FC Schalke 04
|
8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 6 |
| 18 |
Borussia Mönchengladbach
|
9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 4 |
SC Freiburg
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: J. Schuster
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | M. Backhaus | G |
| 29 | P. Treu | D |
| 28 | M. Ginter | D |
| 3 | P. Lienhart | D |
| 33 | J. Makengo | D |
| 8 | M. Eggestein | M |
| 16 | Y. Engelhardt | M |
| 19 | J. Beste | M |
| 42 | K. Goto | M |
| 7 | D. Scherhant | M |
| 31 | I. Matanović | F |
Substitutes
| 30 | C. Günter | D |
| 9 | L. Höler | F |
| 22 | Cyriaque Kalou Irié | F |
| 17 | L. Kübler | D |
| 21 | F. Müller | G |
| 6 | P. Osterhage | M |
| 37 | M. Rosenfelder | D |
| 20 | R. Yamamoto | M |
| 32 | V. Grifo | M |
Bayer Leverkusen
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Carles Martínez
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | M. Flekken | G |
| 4 | J. Quansah | D |
| 12 | E. Tapsoba | D |
| 2 | F. Medina | D |
| 3 | Miguel Gutiérrez | D |
| 24 | Aleix García | M |
| 6 | E. Fernández | M |
| 19 | M. Diaby | M |
| 30 | I. Maza | M |
| 9 | Afonso Moreira | M |
| 14 | P. Schick | F |
Substitutes
| 8 | R. Andrich | M |
| 28 | J. Blaswich | G |
| 22 | V. Boniface | F |
| 7 | J. Hofmann | M |
| 5 | L. Badé | D |
| 17 | Lucas Vázquez | D |
| 15 | T. Oermann | D |
| 23 | N. Tella | F |
| 10 | M. Tillman | M |