Bayern München vs RB Leipzig Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 6

17 Oct 2026, 13:30

Post on X

RB Leipzig

Away

AI call Difficult Bayern München win or draw

57%

23%

20%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Bayern München vs RB Leipzig prediction: Sportiko gives Bayern München a 57% chance of winning, RB Leipzig 20% and the draw 23%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 10.3%

Both teams to score

63%

Over 2.5 goals

65%

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Bayern München

WWWDW

RB Leipzig

LWLLW

Last 3 meetings Bayern München · 3W 0D 0L

Match summary

Bayern München hosts RB Leipzig in a crucial Bundesliga clash on October 17, 2026. Bayern enters the match with a strong offensive record, averaging over 2.5 goals per game, while Leipzig has shown resilience with a solid defensive structure, conceding less than a goal per game. Both teams have a history of competitive encounters, with Bayern typically holding the edge in terms of overall head-to-head results. The match is expected to be a tactical battle, with Bayern likely focusing on possession and exploiting Leipzig's defensive weaknesses. Key players to watch include Bayern’s prolific striker and Leipzig's dynamic midfielders, who could influence the outcome significantly.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

RB Leipzig goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5	3	3	1
1	6	10	6	2	1
2	8	10	6	2	1
3	6	7	4	2	1
4	3	4	2	1
5	1	2	1

↑ Bayern München goals · most likely 1–1 (10.3%)

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Players in form

Bayern München

M. Olise 4 gls

H. Kane 3 gls

RB Leipzig

A. Nusa 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

23%

Away Win

20%

Both Teams To Score

63% BTTS Yes 37% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

95%

14%

1.5

86%

35%

2.5

65%

57%

3.5

43%

76%

4.5

24%

89%

5.5

11%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

23%

Away Win

20%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

74% Home (No Draw) 26% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

35% Home Win by 2+ 8% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

57% Home Scores More 23% Equal Goals 20% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

95%

14%

1.5

86%

35%

2.5

65%

57%

3.5

43%

76%

4.5

24%

89%

5.5

11%

Both Teams To Score

63% BTTS Yes 37% BTTS No

Exact Goals

21%

22%

19%

13%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.6%	3.0%	2.6%	1.0%	0.3%
1	6.3%	10.3%	5.6%	2.3%	0.7%
2	8.1%	9.9%	6.1%	2.5%	0.8%
3	5.9%	7.2%	4.4%	1.8%	0.6%
4	3.2%	3.9%	2.4%	1.0%	0.3%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

53%

1.5

47%

80%

2.5

20%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

23%

30%

27%

13%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

43%

1.5

57%

71%

2.5

29%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

17%

26%

29%

17%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Bayern München	Draw	RB Leipzig
Bayern München	37.7%	4.1%	1.6%
Draw	17.9%	12.9%	7.3%
RB Leipzig	3.3%	4.1%	11.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

37%

1.5

63%

64%

2.5

36%

84%

3.5

16%

Home Exact Goals

12%

25%

28%

20%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

74%

1.5

26%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

66%

1.5

34%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

66%

1.5

34%

88%

2.5

12%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

30%

36%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

89%

1.5

11%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Bayern München vs RB Leipzig

3 Bayern München Wins

0 Draws

0 RB Leipzig Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
15 Aug 2026	Bayern München	3 - 1	RB Leipzig
17 Jan 2026	RB Leipzig	1 - 5	Bayern München
22 Aug 2025	Bayern München	6 - 0	RB Leipzig

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Bayern München — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H Union Berlin	W	7 - 0
13 Sep	A SV Elversberg	W	1 - 2
10 Sep	H Bodo/Glimt	W	5 - 0
05 Sep	A FC Schalke 04	D	0 - 0
02 Sep	A VfL Osnabrück	W	1 - 4

RB Leipzig — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Bayer Leverkusen	L	2 - 0
13 Sep	H Hamburger SV	W	5 - 0
10 Sep	A Como	L	4 - 1
05 Sep	A Werder Bremen	L	3 - 1
29 Aug	H Borussia Mönchengladbach	W	3 - 0

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9	2	+7	12
2	Bayern München	4	3	1	0	14	2	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12	3	+9	10
4	FC Augsburg	4	2	1	1	11	6	+5	7
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10	5	+5	7
6	FSV Mainz 05	4	2	1	1	10	6	+4	7
7	SV Elversberg	4	2	1	1	8	7	+1	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	8	8	0	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9	5	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	9	10	-1	5
11	FC Schalke 04	4	1	2	1	3	4	-1	5
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	1	1	2	3	5	-2	4
13	1. FC Köln	4	1	1	2	6	9	-3	4
14	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7	10	-3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6	9	-3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2	13	-11	3
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4	17	-13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	0	0	4	6	16	-10	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.