Bayern München vs RB Leipzig Prediction
Bayern München vs RB Leipzig prediction: Sportiko gives Bayern München a 76% chance of winning, RB Leipzig 10% and the draw 14%. Last updated 17 Oct 2026, 18:25.
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Match Report
Bayern München produced a dominant display at home, dismantling RB Leipzig 6–1 in Bundesliga matchday six. Luis Díaz opened the scoring in the 12th minute, with Aleksandar Pavlović and Michael Olise adding further goals before the break to give the hosts a commanding 3–0 lead at half-time. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Bayern win as the most likely outcome at 76%, a call that proved well-founded.
Leipzig showed little sign of a response after the interval as Bayern continued to press. Díaz grabbed his second just two minutes into the second half, before Harry Kane added a fourth in the 52nd minute. Despite a flurry of substitutions from both sides around the hour mark, Bayern's control never wavered, with Díaz completing his hat-trick in the 69th minute.
Leipzig's consolation came deep into stoppage time through Andrija Maksimović, but it did little to mask the scale of the defeat. Bayern's statistical superiority told the full story — 62% possession, 17 shots on target, and an expected goals figure of 3.77 compared to Leipzig's 0.8.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Bayern München
Match Stats
Bayern München
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Harry Kane F | 9.9 | 59' | 1 | 2 | 5 | 21 (19%) | – |
| 14 Luis Díaz M | 9.4 | 90' | 3 | 1 | 6 | 48 (40%) | – |
| 17 Michael Olise M | 8.9 | 90' | 1 | 1 | 5 | 57 (50%) | 1 |
| 45 Aleksandar Pavlović M | 8.2 | 59' | 1 | – | 1 | 59 (54%) | – |
| 6 Joshua Kimmich M | 7.7 | 90' | – | 1 | 2 | 95 (84%) | 2 |
| 11 Nathaniel Brown D | 7.5 | 90' | – | 1 | 1 | 29 (27%) | 2 |
| 2 Dayot Upamecano D | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 73 (69%) | 2 |
| 44 Josip Stanišić D | 7.2 | 31' | – | – | – | 29 (27%) | 1 |
| 42 Lennart Karl M | 7.2 | 31' | – | – | – | 26 (24%) | – |
| 3 Kim Min-jae D | 7.1 | 77' | – | – | – | 68 (66%) | 1 |
| 8 Tom Bischof M | 7.0 | 31' | – | – | 2 | 23 (22%) | 1 |
| 40 Jonas Urbig G | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 36 (26%) | – |
| 27 Konrad Laimer D | 6.8 | 59' | – | – | 1 | 43 (38%) | 1 |
| 34 Ismael Saibari M | 6.6 | 59' | – | – | 2 | 20 (19%) | – |
| 23 Sacha Boey D | 6.6 | 13' | – | – | 1 | 13 (13%) | – |
| 7 S. Gnabry F | 6.5 | 31' | – | – | 1 | 20 (17%) | 1 |
RB Leipzig
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Maarten Vandevoordt G | 7.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 40 (26%) | 1 |
| 10 Brajan Gruda M | 6.9 | 90' | – | 1 | 3 | 25 (22%) | 2 |
| 30 Andrija Maksimović M | 6.9 | 19' | 1 | – | 1 | 17 (13%) | – |
| 21 Neil El Aynaoui M | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 35 (33%) | 4 |
| 40 Rômulo F | 6.4 | 30' | – | – | 1 | 7 (7%) | 2 |
| 27 Tidiam Gomis F | 6.3 | 44' | – | – | 1 | 15 (13%) | – |
| 28 Christopher Nkunku F | 6.2 | 46' | – | – | – | 5 (5%) | – |
| 22 David Raum D | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 47 (38%) | 3 |
| 7 Antonio Nusa M | 6.0 | 60' | – | – | 1 | 12 (7%) | – |
| 4 Willi Orbán D | 6.0 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 46 (42%) | 1 |
| 13 Nicolas Seiwald M | 5.9 | 44' | – | – | 1 | 18 (11%) | – |
| 39 Benjamin Henrichs D | 5.9 | 31' | – | – | – | 22 (20%) | 1 |
| 20 Rocco Reitz M | 5.8 | 71' | – | – | 1 | 7 (4%) | – |
| 23 Castello Lukeba D | 5.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 73 (62%) | 2 |
| 6 Ezechiel Banzuzi M | 5.6 | 46' | – | – | – | 19 (13%) | 2 |
| 16 Lukas Klostermann D | 5.5 | 59' | – | – | – | 19 (18%) | – |
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At a glance
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Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Most likely scores
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
M. Olise
6 gls
L. Díaz
4 gls
H. Kane
4 gls
C. Nkunku
4 gls
Rômulo
4 gls
A. Nusa
4 gls
T. Gomis
3 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Bayern München vs RB Leipzig
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2026 | Bayern München | 3 - 1 | RB Leipzig |
| 17 Jan 2026 | RB Leipzig | 1 - 5 | Bayern München |
| 22 Aug 2025 | Bayern München | 6 - 0 | RB Leipzig |
Bayern München — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | A FSV Mainz 05 | W | 1 - 2 |
| 03 Nov | A Atletico Madrid | W | 0 - 2 |
| 31 Oct | H Borussia Dortmund | D | 2 - 2 |
| 28 Oct | H 1. FC Magdeburg | W | 6 - 1 |
| 25 Oct | A SC Freiburg | W | 1 - 3 |
RB Leipzig — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | H FC Augsburg | W | 5 - 2 |
| 04 Nov | H Manchester City | L | 2 - 3 |
| 31 Oct | A FC Schalke 04 | W | 0 - 2 |
| 27 Oct | A Rot-Weiß Essen | W | 1 - 2 |
| 24 Oct | H SV Elversberg | W | 4 - 0 |
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bayern München
|
9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 9 | +20 | 21 |
| 2 |
Borussia Dortmund
|
9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
| 3 |
RB Leipzig
|
9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 13 | +14 | 18 |
| 4 |
SC Freiburg
|
8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 16 |
| 5 |
Werder Bremen
|
9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
| 6 |
Bayer Leverkusen
|
8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 13 |
| 7 |
SV Elversberg
|
9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 |
VfB Stuttgart
|
9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 |
Eintracht Frankfurt
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
| 10 |
Hamburger SV
|
9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 12 |
| 11 |
FSV Mainz 05
|
9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 |
SC Paderborn 07
|
9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 |
FC Augsburg
|
9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 |
1899 Hoffenheim
|
8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 |
1. FC Köln
|
8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 |
Union Berlin
|
8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 |
FC Schalke 04
|
8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 6 |
| 18 |
Borussia Mönchengladbach
|
9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 4 |
Bayern München
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: V. Kompany
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 40 | J. Urbig | G |
| 27 | K. Laimer | D |
| 2 | D. Upamecano | D |
| 3 | Kim Min-Jae | D |
| 11 | N. Brown | D |
| 6 | J. Kimmich | M |
| 45 | A. Pavlović | M |
| 17 | M. Olise | M |
| 34 | I. Saibari | M |
| 14 | L. Díaz | M |
| 9 | H. Kane | F |
Substitutes
| 23 | S. Boey | D |
| 44 | J. Stanišić | D |
| 19 | A. Davies | D |
| 42 | L. Karl | M |
| 4 | J. Tah | D |
| 26 | S. Ulreich | G |
| 21 | H. Ito | D |
| 7 | S. Gnabry | F |
| 8 | T. Bischof | M |
RB Leipzig
Formation: 4-5-1
Coach: M. Demichelis
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | M. Vandevoordt | G |
| 16 | L. Klostermann | D |
| 4 | W. Orbán | D |
| 23 | C. Lukeba | D |
| 22 | D. Raum | D |
| 10 | B. Gruda | M |
| 20 | R. Reitz | M |
| 21 | N. El Aynaoui | M |
| 6 | E. Banzuzi | M |
| 7 | A. Nusa | M |
| 28 | C. Nkunku | F |
Substitutes
| 3 | M. Estève | D |
| 35 | Max Finkgräfe | D |
| 39 | B. Henrichs | D |
| 30 | A. MaksimoviÄ | M |
| 1 | Ø. Nyland | G |
| 40 | Rômulo | F |
| 13 | N. Seiwald | M |
| 17 | R. Baku | D |
| 27 | T. Gomis | F |