Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 4

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RB Leipzig

Away

BayArena, Leverkusen

AI call Difficult Bayer Leverkusen win or draw

51%

23%

26%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig prediction: Sportiko gives Bayer Leverkusen a 51% chance of winning, RB Leipzig 26% and the draw 23%. Last updated 20 Sep 2026, 15:25.

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1st Half Home or Draw 76%
Over 2.5 Goals 72%
Home 2H Over 0.5 71%

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Match Report

Bayer Leverkusen secured a comfortable 2–0 home victory over RB Leipzig in Bundesliga Matchday 4, with the result never seriously in doubt after a dominant second-half display. The hosts went ahead just before the break when Patrik Schick converted on 44 minutes, capping a first half that had also seen a Christopher Nkunku goal ruled out by VAR for Leipzig.

Leverkusen extended their lead twelve minutes into the second period through Miguel Gutiérrez, effectively ending the contest. The hosts were the more threatening side throughout, registering 18 total shots to Leipzig's 12 and earning nine corners to six, while their six shots on target comfortably outpaced the visitors' three. Antonio Nusa had been cautioned early for Leipzig, and a flurry of late yellow cards — including bookings for Tapsoba, El Aynaoui, Henrichs, and Moreira — added some edge to the closing stages without altering the outcome.

The result was in line with pre-match expectations; our AI model had identified a Leverkusen win as the most probable outcome at 51%, a call that proved correct as the hosts moved on with maximum points.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 11'

Antonio Nusa Yellow Card

⇄ 26'

Brajan Gruda ⇄ Tidiam Gomis

🖵 34'

Christopher Nkunku Goal cancelled

Patrik Schick assist: Miguel Gutiérrez

44' ⚽ 1–0

HT 1–0

Miguel Gutiérrez

57' ⚽ 2–0

⇄ 67'

Rômulo ⇄ Andrija Maksimović

⇄ 67'

Ezechiel Banzuzi ⇄ Nicolas Seiwald

Ezequiel Fernández ⇄ Robert Andrich

72' ⇄

▮ 74'

Neil El Aynaoui Yellow Card

Patrik Schick ⇄ Christian Kofane

77' ⇄

Edmond Tapsoba Yellow Card

82' ▮

⇄ 84'

Christopher Nkunku ⇄ Samba Konaté

⇄ 84'

Ridle Baku ⇄ Benjamin Henrichs

Moussa Diaby ⇄ Lucas Vázquez

89' ⇄

▮ 90+1'

Benjamin Henrichs Yellow Card

Afonso Moreira Yellow Card

90+1' ▮

FT 2–0

Bayer Leverkusen

Match Stats

RB Leipzig

51% Ball Possession 49%

18 Total Shots 12

6 Shots on Goal 3

11 Shots off Goal 6

1 Blocked Shots 3

14 Shots insidebox 7

4 Shots outsidebox 5

9 Corner Kicks 6

1 Offsides 1

14 Fouls 8

2 Yellow Cards 3

0 Red Cards 0

3 Goalkeeper Saves 4

484 Total passes 470

414 Passes accurate 410

7 Free Kicks 14

Bayer Leverkusen

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
3 Miguel Gutiérrez D	8.6	90'	1	1	1	45 (37%)	4
14 Patrik Schick F	7.9	77'	1	–	4	11 (7%)	1
12 Edmond Tapsoba D	7.6	90'	–	–	–	65 (59%)	2
4 Jarell Quansah D	7.4	90'	–	–	–	44 (36%)	1
2 Facundo Medina D	7.3	90'	–	–	1	74 (68%)	1
24 Aleix García M	7.2	90'	–	–	2	71 (63%)	–
6 Ezequiel Fernández M	7.2	72'	–	–	–	41 (37%)	5
1 M. Flekken G	7.1	90'	–	–	–	41 (39%)	–
17 Lucas Vázquez D	7.0	1'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
30 Ibrahim Maza M	6.9	90'	–	–	4	30 (20%)	1
8 Robert Andrich M	6.9	18'	–	–	–	13 (11%)	2
9 Afonso Moreira M	6.5	90'	–	–	3	24 (18%)	2
35 Christian Kofane F	6.5	13'	–	–	–	–	–
19 Moussa Diaby M	6.3	89'	–	–	3	20 (15%)	–

RB Leipzig

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
22 David Raum D	7.5	90'	–	–	–	53 (48%)	2
4 Willi Orbán D	7.0	90'	–	–	1	67 (64%)	2
26 Maarten Vandevoordt G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	34 (24%)	–
21 Neil El Aynaoui M	6.7	90'	–	–	3	34 (31%)	3
17 Ridle Baku D	6.6	84'	–	–	–	49 (42%)	1
3 Maxime Estève D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	67 (62%)	1
7 Antonio Nusa M	6.4	90'	–	–	2	28 (22%)	1
27 Tidiam Gomis F	6.3	64'	–	–	3	25 (19%)	–
45 Samba Konaté F	6.3	6'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
40 Rômulo F	6.2	67'	–	–	1	7 (5%)	1
13 Nicolas Seiwald M	6.1	23'	–	–	–	17 (16%)	1
28 Christopher Nkunku M	6.1	84'	–	–	–	26 (22%)	1
10 Brajan Gruda M	6.1	26'	–	–	1	7 (6%)	–
30 Andrija Maksimović M	6.0	23'	–	–	–	9 (9%)	–
6 Ezechiel Banzuzi M	5.9	67'	–	–	1	36 (31%)	2
39 Benjamin Henrichs D	5.7	6'	–	–	–	3 (1%)	–

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Confidence Medium (51%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult Bayer Leverkusen win or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 9.2%

Both teams to score

71%

Over 2.5 goals

72%

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Bayer Leverkusen

WWDWL

RB Leipzig

LWLLW

Last 3 meetings Bayer Leverkusen · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

Bayer Leverkusen faces RB Leipzig in what promises to be a competitive Bundesliga clash. Leverkusen has shown strong attacking form this season, averaging 2.5 goals per game, while Leipzig is solid defensively, conceding just 0.8 goals per match. Both teams possess high pressing styles and will look to control possession, making midfield battles crucial. Key players to watch include Leverkusen's prolific forward line and Leipzig's organized defense, which could determine the outcome. Expect a tactical showdown with potential for both teams to create scoring opportunities.

Live insights

76' time check 80% sure

Min 76: Bayer Leverkusen leads 2-0. Win probability: 98.2%. Comeback chance: 1.8%.

59' Goal 85% sure

Bayer Leverkusen now leads 2-0 with 94.7% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 71.3%.

45' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 1-0. Bayer Leverkusen win: 76.4%. BTTS: 53.9%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 1-0. Bayer Leverkusen leads. Win probability: 76.4%. Over 0.5 more goals: 83.2%.

35' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 0-1. RB Leipzig win: 55.4%. BTTS: 74.3%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

51%

45%

Draw

23%

45%

Away

26%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

RB Leipzig goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3	3	3	1	1
1	4	9	6	3	1
2	6	9	7	4	1
3	4	7	5	3	1
4	2	4	3	2	1
5	1	2	1	1

↑ Bayer Leverkusen goals · most likely 1–1 (9.2%)

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Players in form

Bayer Leverkusen

P. Schick 4 gls

Christian Kofane 2 gls

RB Leipzig

A. Nusa 2 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

51%

Away Win

26%

Draw

23%

Both Teams To Score

71% BTTS Yes 29% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

97%

10%

1.5

90%

28%

2.5

72%

49%

3.5

51%

69%

4.5

31%

85%

5.5

15%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

51%

Away Win

26%

Draw

23%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

66% Home (No Draw) 34% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

31% Home Win by 2+ 12% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

51% Home Scores More 26% Away Scores More 23% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

97%

10%

1.5

90%

28%

2.5

72%

49%

3.5

51%

69%

4.5

31%

85%

5.5

15%

Both Teams To Score

71% BTTS Yes 29% BTTS No

Exact Goals

18%

21%

20%

15%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.4%	2.6%	2.8%	1.5%	0.6%
1	4.2%	9.2%	6.3%	3.3%	1.3%
2	5.9%	9.1%	7.0%	3.6%	1.4%
3	4.4%	6.8%	5.2%	2.7%	1.1%
4	2.4%	3.8%	2.9%	1.5%	0.6%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

47%

1.5

53%

76%

2.5

24%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

20%

28%

15%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

37%

1.5

63%

66%

2.5

34%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

14%

23%

29%

19%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	RB Leipzig
Bayer Leverkusen	32.7%	4.3%	2.1%
Draw	16.2%	12.1%	8.5%
RB Leipzig	3.8%	4.8%	15.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

36%

1.5

64%

63%

2.5

37%

84%

3.5

16%

Home Exact Goals

11%

25%

27%

20%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

65%

1.5

35%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

54%

1.5

46%

80%

2.5

20%

93%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

21%

33%

26%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig

2 Bayer Leverkusen Wins

1 Draws

0 RB Leipzig Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
02 May 2026	Bayer Leverkusen	4 - 1	RB Leipzig
20 Dec 2025	RB Leipzig	1 - 3	Bayer Leverkusen
25 Jan 2025	RB Leipzig	2 - 2	Bayer Leverkusen

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Bayer Leverkusen — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H RB Leipzig	W	2 - 0
16 Sep	H Celje	W	2 - 0
12 Sep	A FC Augsburg	D	2 - 2
05 Sep	H Union Berlin	W	4 - 0
29 Aug	A SV Elversberg	L	3 - 2

RB Leipzig — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Bayer Leverkusen	L	2 - 0
13 Sep	H Hamburger SV	W	5 - 0
10 Sep	A Como	L	4 - 1
05 Sep	A Werder Bremen	L	3 - 1
29 Aug	H Borussia Mönchengladbach	W	3 - 0

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9	2	+7	12
2	Bayern München	4	3	1	0	14	2	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12	3	+9	10
4	FC Augsburg	4	2	1	1	11	6	+5	7
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10	5	+5	7
6	FSV Mainz 05	4	2	1	1	10	6	+4	7
7	SV Elversberg	4	2	1	1	8	7	+1	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	8	8	0	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9	5	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	9	10	-1	5
11	FC Schalke 04	4	1	2	1	3	4	-1	5
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	1	1	2	3	5	-2	4
13	1. FC Köln	4	1	1	2	6	9	-3	4
14	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7	10	-3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6	9	-3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2	13	-11	3
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4	17	-13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	0	0	4	6	16	-10	0