Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 2

06 Sep 2026, 13:30

Post on X

FSV Mainz 05

Away

AI call FSV Mainz 05 or draw

21%

30%

48%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction: Sportiko gives Hamburger SV a 21% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 48% and the draw 30%. Last updated 28 Jul 2026, 16:44.

Premium picks

Premium

You're seeing the free 1X2 result — the AI's sharpest picks across all 70+ markets are Premium.

71%

See Premium picks

Free account

Unlock all of today's AI predictions — free

You've seen today's free previews. Create a free account for the AI call, win probabilities and confidence on every match — plus follow your teams and get the daily digest.

Already have an account? Log in

Premium

Unlock the AI's full read on Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05

All 70+ probability markets
AI Deep-Dive match report
Value Edge — model vs market
Live in-play co-pilot

Go Premium

At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.1%

Both teams to score

46%

Over 2.5 goals

41%

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Hamburger SV

LDWWL

FSV Mainz 05

DWWWW

Last 3 meetings Hamburger SV · 1W 2D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming Bundesliga clash, Hamburger SV will face FSV Mainz 05. Hamburger SV has shown solid form, with a strong offensive lineup averaging 1.8 goals per game this season. Conversely, Mainz has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.1 goals per match. Key players to watch include Hamburger's top scorer, who has netted 5 goals in the last 4 matches, and Mainz’s playmaker, who leads in assists. This matchup will hinge on whether Mainz can tighten their defense against a potent Hamburg attack.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

21%

45%

Draw

30%

45%

Away

48%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

FSV Mainz 05 goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	11	13	10	5	2	1
1	7	14	9	4	2
2	4	6	4	2	1
3	1	2	1	1
4
5

↑ Hamburger SV goals · most likely 1–1 (14.1%)

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

Why this pick? · Premium AI Deep-Dive · Premium

You're seeing the free 1X2 result — unlock all 70+ models: goals, both-teams-to-score, the correct-score grid, handicaps, halves & more.

Unlock all models

Match Result

Away Win

48%

Draw

30%

Home Win

21%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

31%

1.5

69%

59%

2.5

41%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

Premium

Home or Away

Premium

Home or Draw

Premium

Match Result

Away Win

48%

Draw

30%

Home Win

21%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

Premium

Home or Away

Premium

Home or Draw

Premium

Winner

69% Away (No Draw) 31% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

25% Away Win by 2+ 8% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

48% Away Scores More 30% Equal Goals 21% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

31%

1.5

69%

59%

2.5

41%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

20%

28%

21%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

Premium

2-4 Goals

Premium

2-3 Goals

Premium

1-2 Goals

Premium

3-5 Goals

Premium

4-6 Goals

Premium

Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

Premium

BTTS & Under 3.5

Premium

BTTS & Over 3.5

Premium

Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

Premium

Away Win & Under 2.5

Premium

Home Win & Under 2.5

Premium

Home Win & Over 2.5

Premium

Draw & Over 2.5

Premium

Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

Premium

Home/Away & Over 2.5

Premium

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

Premium

Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.5%	12.6%	10.2%	4.9%	1.8%
1	7.1%	14.1%	9.0%	4.3%	1.6%
2	3.8%	5.5%	4.0%	1.9%	0.7%
3	1.1%	1.6%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

Premium

1st Half Away Win

Premium

1st Half Home Win

Premium

1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

Premium

1st Half Home or Draw

Premium

1st Half Home or Away

Premium

1h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

Premium

1h Exact Goals

36%

34%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

Premium

2nd Half Away Win

Premium

2nd Half Home Win

Premium

2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

Premium

2nd Half Home or Draw

Premium

2nd Half Home or Away

Premium

2h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

Premium

2h Exact Goals

29%

33%

24%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Hamburger SV	Draw	FSV Mainz 05
Hamburger SV	12.2%	4.0%	2.0%
Draw	9.0%	20.0%	18.0%
FSV Mainz 05	1.1%	4.0%	29.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

94%

2.5

99%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

41%

37%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

67%

0.5

33%

94%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

62%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

58%

1.5

42%

83%

2.5

17%

95%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

24%

34%

25%

12%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

81%

1.5

19%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

Premium

Away +1 Win

Premium

Home +2 Win

Premium

Home +1 Win

Premium

Away -1 Win

Premium

Away -1 Draw

Premium

Away -2 Draw

Premium

Home -1 Draw

Premium

Away -2 Win

Premium

Home -1 Win

Premium

Home -2 Draw

Premium

Home -2 Win

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Head to Head: Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05

1 Hamburger SV Wins

2 Draws

0 FSV Mainz 05 Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
20 Feb 2026	FSV Mainz 05	1 - 1	Hamburger SV
05 Oct 2025	Hamburger SV	4 - 0	FSV Mainz 05
03 Mar 2018	Hamburger SV	0 - 0	FSV Mainz 05

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Hamburger SV — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	H Everton	L	1 - 2
16 May	A Bayer Leverkusen	D	1 - 1
10 May	H SC Freiburg	W	3 - 2
02 May	A Eintracht Frankfurt	W	1 - 2
25 Apr	H 1899 Hoffenheim	L	1 - 2

FSV Mainz 05 — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	A Udinese	D	3 - 3
31 Jul	H Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	W	1 - 0
25 Jul	H Holstein Kiel	W	3 - 0
17 Jul	H 1. FC Kaiserslautern	W	4 - 1
16 May	A 1. FC Heidenheim	W	0 - 2

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Borussia Dortmund	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	RB Leipzig	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	VfB Stuttgart	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	1899 Hoffenheim	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Bayer Leverkusen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	FC Augsburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FSV Mainz 05	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Union Berlin	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Borussia Mönchengladbach	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Hamburger SV	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	1. FC Köln	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Werder Bremen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	FC Schalke 04	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	SV Elversberg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	SC Paderborn 07	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.