FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 1

29 Aug 2026, 13:30

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SC Paderborn 07

Away

AI call FSV Mainz 05 to win

80%

16%

Home Win Draw Away Win

FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction: Sportiko gives FSV Mainz 05 a 80% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 4% and the draw 16%. Last updated 28 Jul 2026, 16:45.

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At a glance

Most likely score

2:0 · 18.4%

Both teams to score

30%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

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FSV Mainz 05

DWWWW

SC Paderborn 07

WWDDW

Last 3 meetings FSV Mainz 05 · 3W 0D 0L

Match summary

FSV Mainz 05 faces SC Paderborn 07 in a crucial Bundesliga matchup. Mainz has displayed strong offensive capabilities, averaging 1.5 goals per match last season, while Paderborn struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2 goals per game. Paderborn will need to tighten their defense to contain Mainz's attacking threats. Additionally, Mainz's midfield control will be key, as they aim to dominate possession against Paderborn's counter-attacking style. This clash will be pivotal for both teams in their quest for points early in the season.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

SC Paderborn 07 goals →

	0	1	2
0	7	2
1	15	7	1
2	18	7	1
3	15	6	1
4	9	3	1
5	4	2

↑ FSV Mainz 05 goals · most likely 2–0 (18.4%)

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Match Result

Home Win

80%

Draw

16%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

70% BTTS No 30% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

24%

1.5

76%

50%

2.5

50%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

80%

Draw

16%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

95% Home (No Draw) 5% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

57% Home Win by 2+ 1% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

80% Home Scores More 16% Equal Goals 4% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

24%

1.5

76%

50%

2.5

50%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

70% BTTS No 30% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

17%

26%

23%

16%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

51% Even Total Goals 49% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.3%	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
1	14.7%	6.8%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%
2	18.4%	7.2%	1.4%	0.2%	0.0%
3	14.5%	5.7%	1.1%	0.1%	0.0%
4	8.6%	3.4%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

29%

34%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

55%

1.5

45%

81%

2.5

19%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

32%

26%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	FSV Mainz 05	Draw	SC Paderborn 07
FSV Mainz 05	56.8%	1.6%	0.2%
Draw	23.2%	10.8%	1.8%
SC Paderborn 07	1.7%	1.7%	2.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

33%

1.5

67%

60%

2.5

40%

81%

3.5

19%

Home Exact Goals

10%

23%

27%

21%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

71%

1.5

29%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

63%

1.5

37%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

68%

0.5

32%

94%

1.5

99%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

68%

26%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

84%

0.5

16%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

81%

0.5

19%

98%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07

3 FSV Mainz 05 Wins

0 Draws

0 SC Paderborn 07 Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
29 Feb 2020	FSV Mainz 05	2 - 0	SC Paderborn 07
05 Oct 2019	SC Paderborn 07	1 - 2	FSV Mainz 05
31 Jan 2015	FSV Mainz 05	5 - 0	SC Paderborn 07

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FSV Mainz 05 — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	A Udinese	D	3 - 3
31 Jul	H Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	W	1 - 0
25 Jul	H Holstein Kiel	W	3 - 0
17 Jul	H 1. FC Kaiserslautern	W	4 - 1
16 May	A 1. FC Heidenheim	W	0 - 2

SC Paderborn 07 — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	A VfL Osnabrück	W	0 - 2
21 Mar	H Dynamo Dresden	W	2 - 1
14 Mar	A Arminia Bielefeld	D	2 - 2
07 Mar	H Eintracht Braunschweig	D	1 - 1
28 Feb	A 1. FC Kaiserslautern	W	1 - 2

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Borussia Dortmund	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	RB Leipzig	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	VfB Stuttgart	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	1899 Hoffenheim	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Bayer Leverkusen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	FC Augsburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FSV Mainz 05	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Union Berlin	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Borussia Mönchengladbach	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Hamburger SV	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	1. FC Köln	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Werder Bremen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	FC Schalke 04	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	SV Elversberg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	SC Paderborn 07	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.