Villarreal vs Real Madrid Prediction

La Liga · Regular Season - 27

07 Mar 2027, 16:00

Post on X

Real Madrid

Away

Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal

AI call Real Madrid or draw

28%

27%

45%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Villarreal vs Real Madrid prediction: Sportiko gives Villarreal a 28% chance of winning, Real Madrid 45% and the draw 27%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.5%

Both teams to score

61%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

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Villarreal

WWLLL

Real Madrid

LWWWL

Last 3 meetings Villarreal · 0W 0D 3L

Match summary

In this La Liga clash, Villarreal hosts Real Madrid, a match that showcases two teams with contrasting styles. Real Madrid has been strong offensively, averaging 2.2 goals per match this season, while Villarreal's defense has conceded an average of 1.4 goals per game. Villarreal will need to tighten their backline to contain Madrid's attacking threats like Vinícius Jr. and Benzema. Historically, Real Madrid has had the upper hand in this fixture, winning 60% of their last 10 encounters. The outcome will likely hinge on Villarreal's ability to disrupt Madrid's rhythm and capitalize on any defensive lapses.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Real Madrid goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6	7	7	4	2	1
1	5	13	9	5	2	1
2	4	7	6	4	1	1
3	2	3	3	2	1
4	1	1	1	1
5

↑ Villarreal goals · most likely 1–1 (12.5%)

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Players in form

Villarreal

P. Gueye 3 gls

Alberto Moleiro 2 gls

Real Madrid

Kylian Mbappé 7 gls

J. Bellingham 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

45%

Home Win

28%

Draw

27%

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS Yes 39% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

18%

1.5

82%

42%

2.5

58%

65%

3.5

35%

82%

4.5

18%

92%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

45%

Home Win

28%

Draw

27%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

61% Away (No Draw) 39% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

24% Away Win by 2+ 13% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

45% Away Scores More 28% Home Scores More 27% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

18%

1.5

82%

42%

2.5

58%

65%

3.5

35%

82%

4.5

18%

92%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS Yes 39% BTTS No

Exact Goals

12%

24%

23%

17%

10%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.4%	6.9%	7.1%	4.0%	1.7%
1	5.1%	12.5%	9.4%	5.3%	2.3%
2	4.3%	7.3%	6.2%	3.5%	1.5%
3	1.9%	3.2%	2.7%	1.6%	0.7%
4	0.6%	1.1%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

56%

1.5

44%

82%

2.5

18%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

25%

31%

26%

12%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

52%

1.5

48%

79%

2.5

21%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

29%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Villarreal	Draw	Real Madrid
Villarreal	16.5%	4.2%	2.2%
Draw	10.6%	15.7%	13.8%
Real Madrid	2.1%	5.0%	29.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

62%

1.5

38%

85%

2.5

15%

96%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

27%

35%

23%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

50%

1.5

50%

76%

2.5

24%

91%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

18%

31%

27%

15%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Villarreal vs Real Madrid

0 Villarreal Wins

0 Draws

3 Real Madrid Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
24 Jan 2026	Villarreal	0 - 2	Real Madrid
04 Oct 2025	Real Madrid	3 - 1	Villarreal
15 Mar 2025	Villarreal	1 - 2	Real Madrid

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Villarreal — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Levante	W	3 - 1
17 Sep	A Malaga	W	1 - 3
14 Sep	H Real Betis	L	1 - 2
08 Sep	A Borussia Dortmund	L	3 - 2
05 Sep	H Deportivo La Coruna	L	2 - 3

Real Madrid — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Atletico Madrid	L	2 - 1
15 Sep	A Elche	W	2 - 3
12 Sep	H Rayo Vallecano	W	4 - 1
08 Sep	H Inter	W	2 - 1
04 Sep	A Real Betis	L	1 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.