Malaga vs Atletico Madrid Prediction

La Liga · Regular Season - 26

28 Feb 2027, 16:00

Post on X

Atletico Madrid

Away

AI call Difficult Atletico Madrid win or draw

19%

27%

54%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Malaga vs Atletico Madrid prediction: Sportiko gives Malaga a 19% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid 54% and the draw 27%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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76% 73% 71%

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.8%

Both teams to score

51%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

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Malaga

LLDDL

Atletico Madrid

WWWLL

Last 3 meetings Malaga · 0W 0D 3L

Match summary

In this La Liga matchup, Malaga faces a challenging task against Atletico Madrid, who are known for their solid defensive organization and counter-attacking prowess. Atletico has maintained a strong away record, with a win rate of around 60% in their last 10 away fixtures. Malaga, on the other hand, has struggled for consistency, sitting lower in the league standings. Key players to watch include Atletico's prolific scorer, who has netted multiple goals this season, and Malaga's midfield, which will need to perform exceptionally to disrupt Atletico's rhythm. Overall, Atletico Madrid is favored to secure a crucial away victory.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Atletico Madrid goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9	11	11	6	3	1
1	5	13	10	6	2	1
2	3	5	5	3	1
3	1	2	1	1
4
5

↑ Malaga goals · most likely 1–1 (12.8%)

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Players in form

Malaga

No scorer data.

Atletico Madrid

Álex Baena 4 gls

J. David 3 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

54%

Draw

27%

Home Win

19%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS Yes 49% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

24%

1.5

76%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

54%

Draw

27%

Home Win

19%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

74% Away (No Draw) 26% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

31% Away Win by 2+ 7% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

54% Away Scores More 27% Equal Goals 19% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

24%

1.5

76%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS Yes 49% BTTS No

Exact Goals

16%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.5%	10.7%	10.6%	6.1%	2.6%
1	5.1%	12.8%	9.8%	5.7%	2.5%
2	3.1%	5.3%	4.6%	2.6%	1.1%
3	1.0%	1.6%	1.4%	0.8%	0.4%
4	0.2%	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

59%

1.5

41%

84%

2.5

16%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

27%

32%

25%

11%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

61%

1.5

39%

86%

2.5

14%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

29%

33%

24%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Malaga	Draw	Atletico Madrid
Malaga	11.5%	4.0%	2.2%
Draw	6.9%	16.8%	16.8%
Atletico Madrid	1.0%	3.9%	36.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

76%

1.5

24%

93%

2.5

99%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

39%

37%

17%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

62%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

92%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

49%

1.5

51%

76%

2.5

24%

91%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

18%

31%

27%

15%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Malaga vs Atletico Madrid

0 Malaga Wins

0 Draws

3 Atletico Madrid Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
19 Aug 2026	Atletico Madrid	2 - 0	Malaga
10 Feb 2018	Malaga	0 - 1	Atletico Madrid
16 Sep 2017	Atletico Madrid	1 - 0	Malaga

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Malaga — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Getafe	L	1 - 0
17 Sep	H Villarreal	L	1 - 3
13 Sep	A Celta Vigo	D	1 - 1
06 Sep	H Levante	D	0 - 0
30 Aug	A Real Madrid	L	4 - 0

Atletico Madrid — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Real Madrid	W	2 - 1
16 Sep	H Osasuna	W	4 - 0
13 Sep	A Real Sociedad	W	0 - 3
09 Sep	A Liverpool	L	2 - 1
05 Sep	A Athletic Club	L	3 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.