Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid Prediction

La Liga · Regular Season - 23

07 Feb 2027, 16:00

Post on X

Atletico Madrid

Away

Camp Nou, Barcelona

AI call Difficult Barcelona win or draw

60%

23%

17%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid prediction: Sportiko gives Barcelona a 60% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid 17% and the draw 23%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 10.8%

Both teams to score

58%

Over 2.5 goals

60%

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Barcelona

WWWWW

Atletico Madrid

WWWLL

Last 3 meetings Barcelona · 3W 0D 0L

Match summary

In this La Liga clash, Barcelona will face Atletico Madrid in a key matchup that could impact the title race. Barcelona has shown strong form at home, boasting an impressive win rate and a solid goal difference. Atletico Madrid, on the other hand, has been resilient on the road, often relying on a strong defensive setup and counter-attacking play. The outcome may hinge on Barcelona's ability to break down Atletico's defense, while Atletico will look to capitalize on any mistakes. Both teams have the quality to influence the match, making it a highly competitive fixture.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

60%

45%

Draw

23%

45%

Away

17%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Atletico Madrid goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	6	3	2	1
1	8	11	5	2
2	10	10	5	2
3	7	7	4	1
4	4	4	2	1
5	2	2	1

↑ Barcelona goals · most likely 1–1 (10.8%)

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Players in form

Barcelona

Raphinha 12 gls

Lamine Yamal 7 gls

Fermín 4 gls

K. Adeyemi 2 gls

Atletico Madrid

Álex Baena 4 gls

J. David 3 gls

AI match tools

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Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

23%

Away Win

17%

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS Yes 42% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

17%

1.5

83%

40%

2.5

60%

62%

3.5

38%

80%

4.5

20%

92%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

23%

Away Win

17%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

78% Home (No Draw) 22% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

38% Home Win by 2+ 6% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

60% Home Scores More 23% Equal Goals 17% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

17%

1.5

83%

40%

2.5

60%

62%

3.5

38%

80%

4.5

20%

92%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS Yes 42% BTTS No

Exact Goals

11%

23%

18%

11%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.5%	3.2%	2.3%	0.8%	0.2%
1	7.9%	10.8%	5.0%	1.7%	0.5%
2	9.8%	10.1%	5.3%	1.8%	0.5%
3	6.9%	7.2%	3.7%	1.3%	0.3%
4	3.7%	3.8%	2.0%	0.7%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

50%

1.5

50%

78%

2.5

22%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

21%

29%

28%

14%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

53%

1.5

47%

80%

2.5

20%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Barcelona	Draw	Atletico Madrid
Barcelona	42.9%	3.9%	1.2%
Draw	16.6%	13.3%	5.9%
Atletico Madrid	2.6%	3.8%	9.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

38%

1.5

62%

66%

2.5

34%

85%

3.5

15%

Home Exact Goals

12%

26%

28%

20%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

70%

1.5

30%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

72%

1.5

28%

91%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

35%

37%

19%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

60%

0.5

40%

91%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid

3 Barcelona Wins

0 Draws

0 Atletico Madrid Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
04 Apr 2026	Atletico Madrid	1 - 2	Barcelona
03 Mar 2026	Barcelona	3 - 0	Atletico Madrid
02 Dec 2025	Barcelona	3 - 1	Atletico Madrid

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Barcelona — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Sevilla	W	1 - 3
16 Sep	H Racing Santander	W	7 - 2
13 Sep	A Levante	W	2 - 4
09 Sep	H Feyenoord	W	5 - 1
06 Sep	A Valencia	W	0 - 5

Atletico Madrid — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Real Madrid	W	2 - 1
16 Sep	H Osasuna	W	4 - 0
13 Sep	A Real Sociedad	W	0 - 3
09 Sep	A Liverpool	L	2 - 1
05 Sep	A Athletic Club	L	3 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.