Villarreal vs Alaves Prediction

La Liga · Regular Season - 20

17 Jan 2027, 16:00

Post on X

Alaves

Away

Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal

AI call Difficult Alaves win or draw

18%

25%

58%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Villarreal vs Alaves prediction: Sportiko gives Villarreal a 18% chance of winning, Alaves 58% and the draw 25%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 11.6%

Both teams to score

56%

Over 2.5 goals

57%

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Villarreal

WWLLL

Alaves

DLLWW

Last 3 meetings Villarreal · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

Villarreal faces Alaves in a La Liga clash, with Villarreal currently positioned in the top half of the table, showcasing a strong offensive record averaging 1.8 goals per game. Alaves, on the other hand, struggles in the lower tier, with a defense conceding an average of 1.5 goals per game. Villarreal’s home performance has been solid, often leveraging their tactical flexibility and pressing game to dominate possession. Alaves will need to tighten their defensive organization and capitalize on counter-attacking opportunities to secure a favorable result. Overall, Villarreal appears favored based on current form and statistical performance.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Alaves goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6	9	10	7	3	1
1	4	12	10	7	3	1
2	3	5	5	3	2	1
3	1	2	2	1	1
4
5

↑ Villarreal goals · most likely 1–1 (11.6%)

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Players in form

Villarreal

P. Gueye 3 gls

Alberto Moleiro 2 gls

Alaves

L. Boyé 4 gls

M. Díaz 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

58%

Draw

25%

Home Win

18%

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS Yes 44% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

19%

1.5

81%

43%

2.5

57%

66%

3.5

34%

83%

4.5

17%

93%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

58%

Draw

25%

Home Win

18%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

77% Away (No Draw) 24% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

35% Away Win by 2+ 7% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

58% Away Scores More 25% Equal Goals 18% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

19%

1.5

81%

43%

2.5

57%

66%

3.5

34%

83%

4.5

17%

93%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS Yes 44% BTTS No

Exact Goals

13%

24%

23%

17%

10%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.5%	8.8%	10.0%	6.6%	3.2%
1	3.9%	11.6%	10.1%	6.6%	3.3%
2	2.6%	5.2%	5.1%	3.4%	1.7%
3	0.9%	1.8%	1.7%	1.1%	0.6%
4	0.2%	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

27%

32%

25%

11%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

50%

1.5

50%

78%

2.5

22%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

21%

29%

28%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Villarreal	Draw	Alaves
Villarreal	10.0%	4.0%	2.9%
Draw	6.9%	14.6%	18.9%
Alaves	1.2%	3.9%	37.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

36%

37%

19%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

37%

92%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

89%

1.5

11%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

42%

1.5

58%

70%

2.5

30%

88%

3.5

12%

Away Exact Goals

14%

28%

27%

18%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

71%

1.5

29%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Villarreal vs Alaves

1 Villarreal Wins

1 Draws

1 Alaves Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
28 Aug 2026	Alaves	1 - 0	Villarreal
13 Mar 2026	Alaves	1 - 1	Villarreal
10 Jan 2026	Villarreal	3 - 1	Alaves

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Villarreal — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Levante	W	3 - 1
17 Sep	A Malaga	W	1 - 3
14 Sep	H Real Betis	L	1 - 2
08 Sep	A Borussia Dortmund	L	3 - 2
05 Sep	H Deportivo La Coruna	L	2 - 3

Alaves — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Athletic Club	D	0 - 0
15 Sep	H Valencia	L	0 - 1
12 Sep	A Racing Santander	L	2 - 1
06 Sep	H Osasuna	W	5 - 2
28 Aug	H Villarreal	W	1 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.