Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona Prediction

La Liga · Regular Season - 12

08 Nov 2026, 16:00

Post on X

Barcelona

Away

AI call Barcelona or draw

28%

26%

46%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona prediction: Sportiko gives Atletico Madrid a 28% chance of winning, Barcelona 46% and the draw 26%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 11.5%

Both teams to score

65%

Over 2.5 goals

63%

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Atletico Madrid

WWWLL

Barcelona

WWWWW

Last 3 meetings Atletico Madrid · 0W 0D 3L

Match summary

Atletico Madrid will host Barcelona in a highly anticipated La Liga clash on November 8, 2026. Both teams have a strong tactical approach, with Atletico known for their robust defense and counter-attacking style, while Barcelona typically dominates possession and plays a high-pressing game. Historically, matches between these two have been closely contested, with both teams showing resilience. Key players to watch include Atletico's prolific striker and Barcelona's creative midfielder, who could be pivotal in breaking the deadlock. Given their recent form, this match could significantly impact their title aspirations.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

28%

10%

Draw

26%

45%

Away

46%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Barcelona goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	6	7	4	2	1
1	4	11	9	6	3	1
2	4	7	7	4	2	1
3	2	3	3	2	1
4	1	1	1	1
5

↑ Atletico Madrid goals · most likely 1–1 (11.5%)

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Players in form

Atletico Madrid

Álex Baena 4 gls

J. David 3 gls

Barcelona

Raphinha 12 gls

Lamine Yamal 7 gls

Fermín 4 gls

K. Adeyemi 2 gls

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Match Result

Away Win

46%

Home Win

28%

Draw

26%

Both Teams To Score

65% BTTS Yes 35% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

95%

15%

1.5

85%

37%

2.5

63%

60%

3.5

40%

78%

4.5

22%

90%

5.5

10%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

46%

Home Win

28%

Draw

26%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

62% Away (No Draw) 38% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

26% Away Win by 2+ 13% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

46% Away Scores More 28% Home Scores More 26% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

95%

15%

1.5

85%

37%

2.5

63%

60%

3.5

40%

78%

4.5

22%

90%

5.5

10%

Both Teams To Score

65% BTTS Yes 35% BTTS No

Exact Goals

10%

22%

23%

18%

12%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.2%	5.9%	6.7%	4.1%	1.9%
1	4.2%	11.5%	9.4%	5.8%	2.7%
2	3.9%	7.2%	6.6%	4.1%	1.9%
3	1.8%	3.4%	3.1%	1.9%	0.9%
4	0.6%	1.2%	1.1%	0.7%	0.3%

1h Result

1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

80%

49%

1.5

51%

77%

2.5

23%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

21%

28%

15%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

51%

1.5

49%

79%

2.5

21%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

22%

29%

27%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Atletico Madrid	Draw	Barcelona
Atletico Madrid	17.4%	4.5%	2.5%
Draw	9.5%	14.4%	13.5%
Barcelona	2.0%	4.8%	31.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

76%

59%

1.5

41%

83%

2.5

17%

95%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

25%

35%

24%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

84%

1.5

16%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

45%

1.5

55%

73%

2.5

27%

89%

3.5

11%

Away Exact Goals

16%

29%

27%

17%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona

0 Atletico Madrid Wins

0 Draws

3 Barcelona Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
04 Apr 2026	Atletico Madrid	1 - 2	Barcelona
03 Mar 2026	Barcelona	3 - 0	Atletico Madrid
02 Dec 2025	Barcelona	3 - 1	Atletico Madrid

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Atletico Madrid — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Real Madrid	W	2 - 1
16 Sep	H Osasuna	W	4 - 0
13 Sep	A Real Sociedad	W	0 - 3
09 Sep	A Liverpool	L	2 - 1
05 Sep	A Athletic Club	L	3 - 0

Barcelona — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Sevilla	W	1 - 3
16 Sep	H Racing Santander	W	7 - 2
13 Sep	A Levante	W	2 - 4
09 Sep	H Feyenoord	W	5 - 1
06 Sep	A Valencia	W	0 - 5

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.