Rayo Vallecano vs Elche Prediction
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche prediction: Sportiko gives Rayo Vallecano a 53% chance of winning, Elche 20% and the draw 27%. Last updated 24 Oct 2026, 14:03.
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Premium- 2nd Half Over 0.5 75%
- 1st Half Over 0.5 72%
- Under 3.5 Goals 71%
Match Report
Elche claimed a commanding 3-0 victory at Rayo Vallecano in matchday 10 of La Liga, with the game's decisive moments arriving in a chaotic first half. Federico Redondo opened the scoring from the penalty spot on 23 minutes, and Elche doubled their lead through Fernando Niño with another penalty on 36 minutes following VAR confirmation of a foul involving Thomas Lemar. Rayo had the chance to respond when Pathé Ismaël Ciss stepped up to take a spot-kick of their own on 39 minutes, but he missed, leaving the hosts two goals adrift at the break.
The second half offered little improvement for Rayo, despite their 57% possession. Germán Valera added a third for Elche on 68 minutes to put the result beyond doubt. Elche's expected goals figure of 2.63 against Rayo's 1.58 underlined their clinical edge on the night.
Our pre-match AI model had rated a Rayo win as the most likely outcome at 53%, a call that proved well wide of the mark as Elche delivered a disciplined and efficient performance away from home.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Rayo Vallecano
Match Stats
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Unai López M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 86 (78%) | 3 |
| 15 Mujaid Sadick D | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 60 (57%) | – |
| 25 Emil Audero G | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 31 (27%) | – |
| 36 Gnangoro Bouaré M | 6.7 | 14' | – | – | 2 | 21 (20%) | – |
| 24 Florian Lejeune D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 84 (79%) | 1 |
| 14 Georgiy Tsitaishvili F | 6.4 | 44' | – | – | 3 | 14 (13%) | – |
| 20 Iván Balliu D | 6.4 | 76' | – | – | – | 30 (26%) | 2 |
| 6 Pathé Ismaël Ciss M | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 41 (39%) | 2 |
| 9 Alemão F | 6.2 | 44' | – | – | – | 7 (4%) | – |
| 10 Sergio Camello F | 6.1 | 46' | – | – | 1 | 18 (16%) | 1 |
| 33 Jozhua Vertrouwd D | 6.0 | 30' | – | – | – | 8 (7%) | 2 |
| 17 Adrià Pedrosa D | 6.0 | 60' | – | – | 1 | 29 (25%) | 1 |
| 7 Isi Palazón M | 5.8 | 30' | – | – | – | 18 (16%) | – |
| 19 Jorge de Frutos F | 5.8 | 46' | – | – | – | 2 (1%) | – |
| 4 Pedro Díaz M | 5.7 | 60' | – | – | 3 | 14 (9%) | 1 |
| 18 Álvaro García F | 5.4 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 29 (19%) | 2 |
Elche
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Matías Dituro G | 7.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 39 (26%) | – |
| 11 Germán Valera F | 7.9 | 90' | 1 | – | 2 | 26 (23%) | 2 |
| 3 Roy Revivo D | 7.7 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 20 (18%) | – |
| 2 Buba Sangare D | 7.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 20 (17%) | 4 |
| 47 Javi Morcillo M | 7.4 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 42 (39%) | 1 |
| 5 Federico Redondo D | 7.3 | 83' | 1 | – | 1 | 33 (29%) | – |
| 18 Thomas Lemar M | 7.2 | 72' | – | – | 1 | 39 (36%) | 2 |
| 23 Víctor Chust D | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 47 (38%) | 1 |
| 10 Facundo Buonanotte M | 7.1 | 44' | – | 1 | – | 24 (19%) | – |
| 6 Pedro Bigas D | 7.0 | 7' | – | – | – | – | – |
| 16 Martim Neto M | 6.9 | 18' | – | – | 1 | 6 (5%) | 1 |
| 14 Fernando Niño F | 6.9 | 61' | 1 | – | 3 | 17 (10%) | – |
| 21 Lucas Cepeda F | 6.8 | 72' | – | – | 3 | 28 (25%) | 1 |
| 20 Tete Morente F | 6.7 | 18' | – | – | 2 | 15 (10%) | 1 |
| 12 Gonzalo Villar M | 6.7 | 46' | – | – | 1 | 24 (17%) | 1 |
| 24 Abiel Osorio F | 6.5 | 29' | – | – | – | 8 (7%) | 1 |
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At a glance
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Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Most likely scores
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Sergio Camello
7 gls
Fer Niño
6 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Rayo Vallecano vs Elche
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Apr 2026 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 - 0 | Elche |
| 21 Dec 2025 | Elche | 4 - 0 | Rayo Vallecano |
| 29 Apr 2023 | Elche | 4 - 0 | Rayo Vallecano |
Rayo Vallecano — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | H Celta Vigo | W | 3 - 0 |
| 27 Oct | A Recreativo Huelva | W | 2 - 3 |
| 24 Oct | H Elche | L | 0 - 3 |
| 19 Oct | A Getafe | D | 1 - 1 |
| 19 Sep | A Osasuna | D | 1 - 1 |
Elche — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov | H Valencia | L | 0 - 1 |
| 27 Oct | A Pinatar | W | 1 - 3 |
| 24 Oct | A Rayo Vallecano | W | 0 - 3 |
| 17 Oct | A Villarreal | D | 0 - 0 |
| 11 Oct | H Celta Vigo | D | 0 - 0 |
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Barcelona
|
11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 46 | 12 | +34 | 30 |
| 2 |
Real Madrid
|
12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 |
Atletico Madrid
|
11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 8 | +14 | 28 |
| 4 |
Real Betis
|
11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 23 |
| 5 |
Real Sociedad
|
11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 19 |
| 6 |
Sevilla
|
12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 |
Athletic Club
|
11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |
Deportivo La Coruna
|
12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |
Racing Santander
|
12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 14 |
| 10 |
Alaves
|
12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 |
Villarreal
|
11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 |
Celta Vigo
|
11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| 13 |
Espanyol
|
12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 |
Rayo Vallecano
|
10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 |
Getafe
|
11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 12 |
| 16 |
Osasuna
|
12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 |
Elche
|
11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 10 |
| 18 |
Levante
|
11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 10 |
| 19 |
Valencia
|
12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
| 20 |
Malaga
|
12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 5 |
Rayo Vallecano
Formation: 4-3-3
Coach: Beñat San José
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | E. Audero | G |
| 20 | I. Balliu | D |
| 24 | F. Lejeune | D |
| 15 | Mujaid Sadick | D |
| 17 | Adrià Pedrosa | D |
| 4 | Pedro Díaz | M |
| 6 | P. Ciss | M |
| 8 | Unai López | M |
| 19 | Jorge de Frutos | F |
| 10 | Sergio Camello | F |
| 18 | Álvaro García | F |
Substitutes
| 37 | Rayane Belid | F |
| 34 | Iván Alonso Martín | M |
| 36 | G. Bouare | M |
| 22 | Pelayo Fernández | D |
| 3 | M. Kumbulla | D |
| 30 | Adrián Molina | G |
| 7 | Isi Palazón | M |
| 21 | Fran Pérez | F |
| 14 | G. Tsitaishvili | F |
| 23 | Óscar Valentín | M |
| 33 | J. Vertrouwd | D |
| 9 | Alemão | F |
Elche
Formation: 4-3-3
Coach: M. Anselmi
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | M. Dituro | G |
| 2 | Buba Sangaré | D |
| 5 | F. Redondo | D |
| 23 | Víctor Chust | D |
| 3 | R. Revivo | D |
| 12 | Gonzalo Villar | M |
| 47 | J. Morcillo | M |
| 18 | T. Lemar | M |
| 21 | L. Cepeda | F |
| 14 | Fer Niño | F |
| 11 | Germán Valera | F |
Substitutes
| 6 | Bigas | D |
| 10 | F. Buonanotte | M |
| 16 | Martim Neto | M |
| 19 | G. Diangana | F |
| 17 | Josan | M |
| 13 | Alejandro Iturbe | G |
| 15 | K. Lomónaco | D |
| 20 | Tete Morente | F |
| 24 | A. Osorio | F |
| 9 | E. Ponce | F |
| 22 | Rubén Sánchez | D |
| 26 | Matia Barzic Gutiérrez | D |