Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid prediction: Sportiko gives Espanyol a 19% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid 55% and the draw 26%. Last updated 17 Oct 2026, 13:55.
Match Report
Espanyol dominated possession and territory throughout this La Liga encounter but were unable to convert their superiority into goals against a disciplined Atletico Madrid side. The hosts controlled 71% of the ball, registered 19 total shots and earned 12 corners, yet managed only six shots on target as Atletico's defensive structure held firm through a goalless first half.
The match grew increasingly fractious after the break, with seven yellow cards distributed across both sides and a string of substitutions disrupting the flow. Cristian Romero was booked and immediately withdrawn in the 66th and 67th minutes respectively, while the game threatened to boil over amid the persistent foul play.
Atletico absorbed the pressure and struck with a sucker punch when Alex Baena — himself booked earlier — netted a normal goal in the 89th minute to seal a 1–0 victory. The result was against the run of play statistically, with Espanyol's expected goals figure of 1.03 outstripping Atletico's 0.5, though the visitors' efficiency proved decisive. The pre-match AI model had rated an Atletico win as the most likely outcome at 55%, a call that proved correct.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Espanyol
Match Stats
Espanyol
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Angel Fortuno G | 7.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 37 (19%) | – |
| 16 Vanja Drkušić D | 6.9 | 64' | – | – | – | 20 (16%) | 3 |
| 5 Clemens Riedel D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 34 (29%) | – |
| 28 Javier Hernández M | 6.8 | 73' | – | – | 1 | 12 (9%) | – |
| 6 Leandro Cabrera D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 45 (33%) | – |
| 22 Álex Calatrava M | 6.6 | 17' | – | – | – | 5 (5%) | – |
| 23 Omar El Hilali D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 16 (12%) | – |
| 8 Edu Expósito M | 6.5 | 73' | – | – | – | 20 (16%) | – |
| 20 Gabriel Moscardo M | 6.4 | 17' | – | – | 1 | 4 (4%) | – |
| 10 Pol Lozano M | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 31 (22%) | 2 |
| 14 Unai Núñez D | 6.3 | 26' | – | – | – | 4 (2%) | 1 |
| 21 Roger Hinojo D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 12 (9%) | 4 |
| 9 Roberto Fernández F | 6.2 | 82' | – | – | 2 | 9 (4%) | – |
| 15 Bryan Zaragoza M | 6.1 | 82' | – | – | 1 | 11 (10%) | 1 |
| 18 Marcos Fernández F | 6.0 | 8' | – | – | – | 3 (2%) | – |
| 7 Javi Puado F | 5.9 | 8' | – | – | – | 4 (4%) | – |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Alex Baena M | 8.1 | 28' | 1 | – | 2 | 19 (15%) | – |
| 17 Dávid Hancko D | 7.8 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 74 (69%) | 2 |
| 30 Dani Martinez D | 7.6 | 46' | – | – | 1 | 32 (29%) | – |
| 18 Marc Pubill D | 7.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 56 (53%) | – |
| 23 Morten Hjulmand M | 7.4 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 90 (81%) | 2 |
| 22 Alejandro Grimaldo D | 7.3 | 44' | – | – | – | 18 (15%) | 1 |
| 14 Marcos Llorente M | 7.2 | 35' | – | – | 1 | 36 (36%) | 2 |
| 21 Cristian Romero D | 7.2 | 67' | – | – | – | 67 (66%) | 1 |
| 8 Pablo Barrios M | 7.1 | 55' | – | – | – | 56 (46%) | – |
| 11 Ademola Lookman F | 7.0 | 46' | – | – | 1 | 13 (11%) | 1 |
| 20 Giuliano Simeone M | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 50 (41%) | 1 |
| 19 Julián Alvarez F | 6.8 | 44' | – | 1 | 2 | 29 (26%) | – |
| 7 Kang-in Lee M | 6.7 | 62' | – | – | 2 | 44 (41%) | – |
| 13 Jan Oblak G | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 23 (20%) | – |
| 4 Rodrigo Mendoza M | 6.5 | 23' | – | – | – | 34 (27%) | – |
| 15 Jonathan David F | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 22 (17%) | 1 |
Unlock the AI's full read on Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid
- All 70+ probability markets
- AI Deep-Dive match report
- Pick types you choose
At a glance
Unlock all 70+ probability models
Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.
Upgrade NowMatch summary
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
Unlock all 70+ probability models
Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.
Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
Unlock all 70+ probability models
Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.
Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Roberto Fernández
6 gls
Álex Baena
5 gls
Álex Grimaldo
4 gls
You're seeing the free 1X2 result — unlock all 70+ models: goals, both-teams-to-score, the correct-score grid, handicaps, halves & more.
Unlock all modelsUnlock all 70+ probability models
Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.
Upgrade NowHead to Head: Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2026 | Atletico Madrid | 4 - 2 | Espanyol |
| 17 Aug 2025 | Espanyol | 2 - 1 | Atletico Madrid |
| 29 Mar 2025 | Espanyol | 1 - 1 | Atletico Madrid |
Espanyol — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | H Deportivo La Coruna | D | 0 - 0 |
| 30 Oct | A Villarreal | W | 0 - 1 |
| 27 Oct | A Sestao River | L | 4 - 3 |
| 24 Oct | A Racing Santander | L | 2 - 1 |
| 17 Oct | H Atletico Madrid | L | 0 - 1 |
Atletico Madrid — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Nov | H Bayern München | L | 0 - 2 |
| 31 Oct | A Levante | W | 0 - 2 |
| 24 Oct | H Deportivo La Coruna | W | 1 - 0 |
| 20 Oct | A VfB Stuttgart | D | 1 - 1 |
| 17 Oct | A Espanyol | W | 0 - 1 |
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Barcelona
|
11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 46 | 12 | +34 | 30 |
| 2 |
Real Madrid
|
12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 |
Atletico Madrid
|
11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 8 | +14 | 28 |
| 4 |
Real Betis
|
11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 23 |
| 5 |
Real Sociedad
|
11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 19 |
| 6 |
Sevilla
|
12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 |
Athletic Club
|
11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |
Deportivo La Coruna
|
12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |
Racing Santander
|
12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 14 |
| 10 |
Alaves
|
12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 |
Villarreal
|
11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 |
Celta Vigo
|
11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| 13 |
Espanyol
|
12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 |
Rayo Vallecano
|
10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 |
Getafe
|
11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 12 |
| 16 |
Osasuna
|
12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 |
Elche
|
11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 10 |
| 18 |
Levante
|
11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 10 |
| 19 |
Valencia
|
12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
| 20 |
Malaga
|
12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 5 |
Atletico Madrid
Formation: 4-3-1-2
Coach: D. Simeone
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | J. Oblak | G |
| 18 | Marc Pubill | D |
| 21 | C. Romero | D |
| 17 | D. Hancko | D |
| 30 | Dani MartÃnez | D |
| 20 | G. Simeone | M |
| 8 | Pablo Barrios | M |
| 23 | M. Hjulmand | M |
| 7 | Lee Kang-In | M |
| 15 | J. David | F |
| 11 | A. Lookman | F |
Substitutes
| 46 | J. Castillo | M |
| 27 | J. Dominguez | D |
| 10 | Álex Baena | M |
| 19 | J. Álvarez | F |
| 3 | O. Vargas | M |
| 24 | Robin Le Normand | D |
| 9 | A. Sørloth | F |
| 16 | Arnau Ortiz | F |
| 1 | J. Musso | G |
| 4 | Rodrigo Mendoza | M |
| 14 | Marcos Llorente | M |
| 22 | Álex Grimaldo | D |
Espanyol
Formation: 5-4-1
Coach: Manolo González
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ángel Fortuño | G |
| 23 | O. El Hilali | D |
| 16 | V. Drkušić | D |
| 5 | C. Riedel | D |
| 6 | L. Cabrera | D |
| 21 | Roger Hinojo | D |
| 28 | Javier Hernandez | M |
| 8 | Edu Expósito | M |
| 10 | Pol Lozano | M |
| 15 | Bryan Zaragoza | M |
| 9 | Roberto Fernández | F |
Substitutes
| 26 | Rafel Bauzà | M |
| 22 | Álex Calatrava | M |
| 13 | M. Dmitrović | G |
| 24 | T. Dolan | F |
| 18 | Marcos Fernández | F |
| 4 | Urko González | M |
| 2 | Gorosabel | D |
| 3 | Q. Hartman | D |
| 11 | Pere Milla | M |
| 14 | Unai Núñez | D |
| 7 | Javi Puado | F |
| 20 | Gabriel Moscardo | M |