Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Prediction

La Liga · Regular Season - 8

11 Oct 2026, 15:00

Post on X

Atletico Madrid

Away

AI call Atletico Madrid or draw

30%

40%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid prediction: Sportiko gives Alaves a 30% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid 40% and the draw 30%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.1%

Both teams to score

54%

Over 2.5 goals

48%

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Alaves

DLLWW

Atletico Madrid

WWWLL

Last 3 meetings Alaves · 0W 2D 1L

Match summary

In this La Liga matchup, Alaves faces a formidable challenge against Atletico Madrid. Alaves has struggled offensively this season, averaging just 1.0 goals per game, while Atletico boasts a solid defensive record, conceding only 0.8 goals per match. Atletico's attacking prowess, led by key players with high goal contributions, will likely pressure Alaves' backline. The match could hinge on Alaves' ability to exploit counter-attacking opportunities, as Atletico tends to dominate possession. Overall, Atletico's superior form and depth make them favorites in this encounter.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

30%

10%

Draw

30%

45%

Away

40%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Atletico Madrid goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9	9	7	3	1
1	7	14	9	4	1
2	5	8	5	2	1
3	2	3	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Alaves goals · most likely 1–1 (14.1%)

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Players in form

Alaves

L. Boyé 4 gls

M. Díaz 3 gls

Atletico Madrid

Álex Baena 4 gls

J. David 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

40%

Home Win

30%

Draw

30%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

25%

1.5

75%

52%

2.5

48%

74%

3.5

26%

88%

4.5

12%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

40%

Home Win

30%

Draw

30%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

57% Away (No Draw) 43% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

20% Away Win by 2+ 13% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

40% Away Scores More 30% Home Scores More 30% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

25%

1.5

75%

52%

2.5

48%

74%

3.5

26%

88%

4.5

12%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Exact Goals

16%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.0%	8.8%	7.4%	3.5%	1.2%
1	7.2%	14.1%	8.8%	4.1%	1.5%
2	5.3%	7.5%	5.3%	2.5%	0.9%
3	2.1%	3.0%	2.1%	1.0%	0.4%
4	0.6%	0.9%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

28%

32%

25%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

29%

33%

24%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Alaves	Draw	Atletico Madrid
Alaves	19.4%	4.7%	2.0%
Draw	10.5%	18.4%	13.6%
Atletico Madrid	1.5%	4.4%	25.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

66%

1.5

34%

88%

2.5

12%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

30%

36%

22%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

76%

59%

1.5

41%

83%

2.5

17%

95%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

25%

35%

24%

11%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

84%

1.5

16%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Alaves vs Atletico Madrid

0 Alaves Wins

2 Draws

1 Atletico Madrid Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
18 Jan 2026	Atletico Madrid	1 - 0	Alaves
30 Aug 2025	Alaves	1 - 1	Atletico Madrid
03 May 2025	Alaves	0 - 0	Atletico Madrid

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Alaves — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Athletic Club	D	0 - 0
15 Sep	H Valencia	L	0 - 1
12 Sep	A Racing Santander	L	2 - 1
06 Sep	H Osasuna	W	5 - 2
28 Aug	H Villarreal	W	1 - 0

Atletico Madrid — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Real Madrid	W	2 - 1
16 Sep	H Osasuna	W	4 - 0
13 Sep	A Real Sociedad	W	0 - 3
09 Sep	A Liverpool	L	2 - 1
05 Sep	A Athletic Club	L	3 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.