Real Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction

La Liga · Regular Season - 8

11 Oct 2026, 15:00

Post on X

Villarreal

Away

AI call Difficult Real Madrid win or draw

56%

25%

19%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Real Madrid vs Villarreal prediction: Sportiko gives Real Madrid a 56% chance of winning, Villarreal 19% and the draw 25%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 11.8%

Both teams to score

57%

Over 2.5 goals

57%

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Real Madrid

LWWWL

Villarreal

WWLLL

Last 3 meetings Real Madrid · 3W 0D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming La Liga clash between Real Madrid and Villarreal, both teams will be looking to secure crucial points. Real Madrid currently boasts a strong offense, averaging 2.3 goals per match this season, while Villarreal has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per match. Historically, Real Madrid has a favorable record against Villarreal, winning 7 of the last 10 encounters. However, Villarreal’s counter-attacking style could pose challenges for Madrid’s defense if they are not careful. This match will be pivotal for both teams in their pursuit of league positioning as the season progresses.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Villarreal goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	7	4	3	1
1	9	12	5	2
2	10	10	5	2
3	6	7	3	1
4	3	3	2	1
5	1	1	1

↑ Real Madrid goals · most likely 1–1 (11.8%)

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Players in form

Real Madrid

Kylian Mbappé 7 gls

J. Bellingham 3 gls

Villarreal

P. Gueye 3 gls

Alberto Moleiro 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

56%

Draw

25%

Away Win

19%

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS Yes 43% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

19%

1.5

81%

43%

2.5

57%

66%

3.5

34%

83%

4.5

17%

93%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

56%

Draw

25%

Away Win

19%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

75% Home (No Draw) 25% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

34% Home Win by 2+ 7% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

56% Home Scores More 25% Equal Goals 19% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

19%

1.5

81%

43%

2.5

57%

66%

3.5

34%

83%

4.5

17%

93%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS Yes 43% BTTS No

Exact Goals

13%

24%

23%

17%

10%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.5%	4.0%	2.8%	1.0%	0.3%
1	8.7%	11.8%	5.4%	1.9%	0.5%
2	9.7%	10.1%	5.3%	1.8%	0.5%
3	6.3%	6.5%	3.4%	1.2%	0.3%
4	3.0%	3.2%	1.7%	0.6%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

56%

1.5

44%

82%

2.5

18%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

25%

31%

26%

12%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

53%

1.5

47%

80%

2.5

20%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Real Madrid	Draw	Villarreal
Real Madrid	39.2%	4.4%	1.4%
Draw	16.5%	14.7%	7.4%
Villarreal	2.3%	3.7%	10.4%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

15%

0.5

85%

43%

1.5

57%

70%

2.5

30%

88%

3.5

12%

Home Exact Goals

15%

28%

27%

18%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

72%

1.5

28%

91%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

35%

37%

19%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

62%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Real Madrid vs Villarreal

3 Real Madrid Wins

0 Draws

0 Villarreal Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
24 Jan 2026	Villarreal	0 - 2	Real Madrid
04 Oct 2025	Real Madrid	3 - 1	Villarreal
15 Mar 2025	Villarreal	1 - 2	Real Madrid

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Real Madrid — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Atletico Madrid	L	2 - 1
15 Sep	A Elche	W	2 - 3
12 Sep	H Rayo Vallecano	W	4 - 1
08 Sep	H Inter	W	2 - 1
04 Sep	A Real Betis	L	1 - 0

Villarreal — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Levante	W	3 - 1
17 Sep	A Malaga	W	1 - 3
14 Sep	H Real Betis	L	1 - 2
08 Sep	A Borussia Dortmund	L	3 - 2
05 Sep	H Deportivo La Coruna	L	2 - 3

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.