Real Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
AI call
Real Madrid to win or draw
69%
18%
13%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Real Madrid vs Villarreal prediction: Sportiko gives Real Madrid a 69% chance of winning, Villarreal 13% and the draw 18%. Last updated 10 Oct 2026, 20:59.
Premium picks
Premium- Home 2H Over 0.5 75%
- Over 2.5 Goals 75%
- 1st Half Home or Away 71%
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Timeline
▮
10'
Renato Veiga
Yellow Card
Jude Bellingham
Yellow Card
19'
▮
Álvaro Carreras
⇄ Marc Cucurella
45'
⇄
HT 0–0
Trent Alexander-Arnold
⇄ Vinícius Júnior
52'
⇄
⇄
56'
Santi Comesaña
⇄ Nathan-Dylan Saliba
⇄
56'
Juan Foyth
⇄ Carlos Romero
Yan Diomande
assist: Federico Valverde
62'
⚽
1–0
Yan Diomande
Goal confirmed
63'
🖵
⇄
67'
Ilias Akhomach
⇄ Gerard Moreno
⇄
67'
Sergi Cardona
⇄ Georges Mikautadze
Yellow Card
68'
▮
Vinícius Júnior
Red Card
72'
▮
Vinícius Júnior
Goal cancelled
72'
🖵
Arda Güler
⇄ Eduardo Camavinga
77'
⇄
Ibrahima Konaté
Yellow Card
81'
▮
Antonio Rüdiger
Yellow Card
83'
▮
▮
84'
Pau Navarro
Yellow Card
Yan Diomande
⇄ D. Dumfries
86'
⇄
⇄
86'
Alberto Moleiro
⇄ Nizar El Jmili
Aurélien Tchouaméni
Yellow Card
87'
▮
Kylian Mbappé
Yellow Card
90+4'
▮
FT 1–0
Real Madrid
Match Stats
Villarreal
46%
Ball Possession
54%
0.99
Expected Goals (xG)
0.64
11
Total Shots
15
4
Shots on Goal
4
4
Shots off Goal
7
3
Blocked Shots
4
9
Shots insidebox
7
2
Shots outsidebox
8
9
Corner Kicks
3
3
Offsides
1
8
Fouls
13
5
Yellow Cards
2
1
Red Cards
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3
406
Total passes
475
338
Passes accurate
421
13
Free Kicks
8
Real Madrid
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Yan Diomande M | 8.2 | 86' | 1 | – | 2 | 28 (24%) | 3 |
| 1 Thibaut Courtois G | 7.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 34 (25%) | – |
| 18 Álvaro Carreras D | 7.7 | 46' | – | – | – | 28 (24%) | 3 |
| 8 Federico Valverde M | 7.4 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 44 (34%) | 1 |
| 22 Antonio Rüdiger D | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 36 (33%) | 2 |
| 16 Ibrahima Konaté D | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 39 (34%) | 2 |
| 12 Trent Alexander-Arnold D | 7.2 | 52' | – | – | – | 28 (23%) | – |
| 15 Arda Güler M | 7.1 | 77' | – | – | 1 | 40 (36%) | 1 |
| 17 Marc Cucurella D | 7.1 | 44' | – | – | – | 22 (16%) | 5 |
| 24 D. Dumfries D | 7.0 | 4' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | – |
| 6 Eduardo Camavinga M | 6.9 | 13' | – | – | – | 5 (4%) | 1 |
| 14 Aurélien Tchouaméni M | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 41 (39%) | – |
| 10 Kylian Mbappé F | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 19 (17%) | – |
| 5 Jude Bellingham M | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 30 (22%) | – |
| 7 Vinícius Júnior F | 5.9 | 20' | – | – | 1 | 7 (5%) | – |
Villarreal
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Alexander Freeman D | 7.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 51 (47%) | 6 |
| 20 Carlos Romero D | 7.1 | 34' | – | – | 1 | 17 (15%) | 1 |
| 24 Nathan-Dylan Saliba M | 6.9 | 34' | – | – | 1 | 27 (24%) | – |
| 18 Pape Gueye M | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | 4 | 44 (38%) | 2 |
| 8 Juan Foyth M | 6.9 | 56' | – | – | – | 37 (36%) | 1 |
| 23 Sergi Cardona D | 6.8 | 67' | – | – | – | 29 (25%) | – |
| 9 Georges Mikautadze F | 6.7 | 23' | – | – | 2 | 4 (3%) | – |
| 14 Santi Comesaña M | 6.6 | 56' | – | – | – | 24 (21%) | 1 |
| 25 Péter Gulácsi G | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 23 (18%) | – |
| 6 Pau Navarro D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 63 (57%) | 1 |
| 12 Renato Veiga D | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 63 (51%) | – |
| 11 Ilias Akhomach M | 6.4 | 67' | – | – | 1 | 14 (12%) | 2 |
| 7 Gerard Moreno F | 6.3 | 23' | – | – | 1 | 13 (12%) | – |
| 10 Alberto Moleiro M | 6.2 | 86' | – | – | 2 | 33 (31%) | – |
| 27 Nizar El Jmili F | 6.2 | 4' | – | – | – | 4 (4%) | – |
| 22 Ayoze Pérez F | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 15 (15%) | – |
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Confidence
Medium (69%)
At a glance
Our lean
Real Madrid to win or draw
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Real Madrid
WWWWW
Villarreal
LLWWL
Last 3 meetings
Real Madrid · 3W 0D 0L
Match summary
In the upcoming La Liga clash between Real Madrid and Villarreal, both teams will be looking to secure crucial points. Real Madrid currently boasts a strong offense, averaging 2.3 goals per match this season, while Villarreal has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per match. Historically, Real Madrid has a favorable record against Villarreal, winning 7 of the last 10 encounters. However, Villarreal’s counter-attacking style could pose challenges for Madrid’s defense if they are not careful. This match will be pivotal for both teams in their pursuit of league positioning as the season progresses.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
69%
45%
Draw
18%
45%
Away
13%
10%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Real Madrid
Kylian Mbappé
12 gls
J. Bellingham
4 gls
Y. Diomande
3 gls
Villarreal
No scorer data.
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Real Madrid vs Villarreal
3
Real Madrid Wins
0
Draws
0
Villarreal Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | Villarreal | 0 - 2 | Real Madrid |
| 04 Oct 2025 | Real Madrid | 3 - 1 | Villarreal |
| 15 Mar 2025 | Villarreal | 1 - 2 | Real Madrid |
Real Madrid — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | A Valencia | W | 0 - 3 |
| 04 Nov | A AEK Athens FC | W | 2 - 3 |
| 01 Nov | A Racing Santander | W | 0 - 3 |
| 25 Oct | A Barcelona | W | 1 - 2 |
| 21 Oct | H RB Leipzig | W | 4 - 1 |
Villarreal — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Nov | H Paris Saint Germain | L | 0 - 6 |
| 30 Oct | H Espanyol | L | 0 - 1 |
| 27 Oct | A Manacor | W | 0 - 5 |
| 24 Oct | A Valencia | W | 1 - 2 |
| 20 Oct | A Liverpool | L | 4 - 3 |
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Barcelona
|
11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 46 | 12 | +34 | 30 |
| 2 |
Real Madrid
|
12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 |
Atletico Madrid
|
11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 8 | +14 | 28 |
| 4 |
Real Betis
|
11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 23 |
| 5 |
Real Sociedad
|
11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 19 |
| 6 |
Sevilla
|
12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 |
Athletic Club
|
11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |
Deportivo La Coruna
|
12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |
Racing Santander
|
12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 14 |
| 10 |
Alaves
|
12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 |
Villarreal
|
11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 |
Celta Vigo
|
11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| 13 |
Espanyol
|
12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 |
Rayo Vallecano
|
10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 |
Getafe
|
11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 12 |
| 16 |
Osasuna
|
12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 |
Elche
|
11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 10 |
| 18 |
Levante
|
11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 10 |
| 19 |
Valencia
|
12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
| 20 |
Malaga
|
12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 5 |
Villarreal
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Iñigo Pérez
25
Gulácsi
23
Cardona
12
Veiga
6
Navarro
3
Freeman
18
Gueye
8
Foyth
10
Moleiro
14
Comesaña
11
Akhomach
22
Pérez
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | P. Gulácsi | G |
| 3 | A. Freeman | D |
| 6 | Pau Navarro | D |
| 12 | Renato Veiga | D |
| 23 | Sergi Cardona | D |
| 8 | J. Foyth | M |
| 18 | P. Gueye | M |
| 11 | Ilias Akhomach | M |
| 14 | Santi Comesaña | M |
| 10 | Alberto Moleiro | M |
| 22 | Ayoze Pérez | F |
Substitutes
| 15 | S. Mouriño | D |
| 7 | Gerard Moreno | F |
| 9 | G. Mikautadze | F |
| 16 | C. Macia | M |
| 28 | Joselillo Gaitán | F |
| 27 | N. El Jmili | F |
| 5 | A. Diatta | M |
| 2 | Logan Costa | D |
| 21 | T. Oluwaseyi | F |
| 1 | Luíz Júnior | G |
| 20 | Carlos Romero | D |
| 24 | N. Saliba | M |
Real Madrid
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: José Mourinho
1
Courtois
18
Fernández
22
Rüdiger
16
Konaté
12
Alexander-Arnold
14
Tchouaméni
8
Valverde
25
Diomande
5
Bellingham
15
Güler
10
Mbappé
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | T. Courtois | G |
| 12 | T. Alexander-Arnold | D |
| 16 | I. Konaté | D |
| 22 | A. Rüdiger | D |
| 18 | Álvaro Fernández | D |
| 8 | F. Valverde | M |
| 14 | A. Tchouaméni | M |
| 15 | A. Güler | M |
| 5 | J. Bellingham | M |
| 25 | Y. Diomande | M |
| 10 | Kylian Mbappé | F |
Substitutes
| 6 | E. Camavinga | M |
| 17 | Marc Cucurella | D |
| 24 | D. Dumfries | D |
| 19 | Carlos Espí | F |
| 13 | A. Lunin | G |
| 26 | Sergio Mestre | G |
| 9 | Endrick | F |
| 20 | Bernardo Silva | M |
| 7 | Vinícius Júnior | F |
| 27 | Thiago Pitarch | M |
| 21 | Brahim Díaz | M |