Alaves vs Osasuna Prediction

La Liga · Regular Season - 4

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Osasuna

Away

Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

AI call Alaves or draw

41%

32%

27%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Alaves vs Osasuna prediction: Sportiko gives Alaves a 41% chance of winning, Osasuna 27% and the draw 32%. Last updated 6 Sep 2026, 18:30.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 74%
Home to Score 71%
1st Half Draw or Away 72%

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Match Report

Alaves claimed a commanding 5–2 victory over Osasuna in La Liga matchday four, with the hosts in control from early on. Lucas Boyé opened the scoring in the 27th minute before Mariano Díaz doubled the advantage nine minutes later, sending Alaves into half-time with a comfortable two-goal cushion.

Osasuna threatened a comeback when Ante Budimir struck just seconds into the second half, but Boyé restored the two-goal margin with his second of the match on 51 minutes. Budimir pulled one back from the penalty spot on 64 minutes, yet Alaves responded swiftly as Boyé completed his hat-trick four minutes later to effectively seal the contest. Pablo Ibáñez added a late fifth in stoppage time to round off a dominant display. Our pre-match AI model had rated an Alaves win as the most likely outcome at 41%, a call that proved correct.

Alaves finished with 51% possession and seven shots on target, edging out their visitors across most statistical categories. The result moves Alaves into strong early-season form, while Osasuna will need to regroup after a chastening afternoon.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Lucas Boyé assist: Mariano Diaz

27' ⚽ 1–0

Mariano Diaz assist: Antonio Sivera

36' ⚽ 2–0

HT 2–0

⚽ 2–1 46'

Ante Budimir assist: Moi Gómez

Lucas Boyé assist: Carles Aleñá

51' ⚽ 3–1

▮ 58'

Abel Bretones Yellow Card

⇄ 60'

Rubén García ⇄ Jonathan Dubasin

⇄ 60'

Flavien Boyomo ⇄ Rockson Yeboah

⇄ 60'

Moi Gómez ⇄ Raúl Moro

Abderrahman Rebbach Yellow Card

62' ▮

⚽ 3–2 64'

Ante Budimir Penalty

Lucas Boyé assist: Ángel Pérez

68' ⚽ 4–2

Mariano Diaz ⇄ A. Manas

71' ⇄

Carles Aleñá ⇄ Denis Suarez

71' ⇄

Abderrahman Rebbach ⇄ Youssef Enriquez Lekhedim

71' ⇄

Jonny Otto ⇄ Xanet Olaiz

80' ⇄

▮ 84'

Rockson Yeboah Yellow Card

Lucas Boyé ⇄ Miguel Rodríguez

85' ⇄

⇄ 85'

Iñigo Arguibide ⇄ Asier Osambela

Pablo Ibáñez assist: Ángel Pérez

90' ⚽ 5–2

FT 5–2

Alaves

Match Stats

Osasuna

51% Ball Possession 49%

12 Total Shots 7

7 Shots on Goal 5

4 Shots off Goal 1

1 Blocked Shots 1

7 Shots insidebox 6

5 Shots outsidebox 1

4 Corner Kicks 2

2 Offsides 2

14 Fouls 13

1 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 0

3 Goalkeeper Saves 2

387 Total passes 401

324 Passes accurate 331

13 Free Kicks 13

Alaves

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
15 Lucas Boyé F	9.4	85'	3	–	3	24 (19%)	3
7 Ángel Pérez M	8.6	90'	–	2	1	28 (21%)	–
9 Mariano Diaz F	8.3	71'	1	1	1	5 (3%)	–
19 Pablo Ibáñez M	8.0	90'	1	–	1	40 (36%)	1
8 Antonio Blanco M	7.0	90'	–	–	2	55 (51%)	2
14 Nahuel Tenaglia D	6.9	90'	–	–	2	39 (34%)	–
17 Jonny Otto D	6.7	80'	–	–	–	39 (34%)	3
10 Carles Aleñá M	6.6	71'	–	1	1	30 (25%)	2
20 A. Manas F	6.6	19'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
3 Youssef Enriquez Lekhedim D	6.5	19'	–	–	–	14 (11%)	–
22 Miguel Rodríguez F	6.5	5'	–	–	–	–	–
16 Ville Koski D	6.4	90'	–	–	–	39 (34%)	–
27 Xanet Olaiz D	6.3	10'	–	–	–	6 (6%)	–
4 Denis Suarez M	6.2	19'	–	–	1	14 (13%)	–
1 Antonio Sivera G	6.1	90'	–	1	–	29 (19%)	–
21 Abderrahman Rebbach M	6.0	71'	–	–	–	18 (14%)	3

Osasuna

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
17 Ante Budimir F	8.2	90'	2	–	6	12 (7%)	2
16 Moi Gómez M	7.0	60'	–	1	–	36 (26%)	2
18 Raúl Moro F	6.5	30'	–	–	–	11 (9%)	–
21 Jonathan Dubasin F	6.5	30'	–	–	–	15 (12%)	2
8 Iker Muñoz M	6.4	90'	–	–	–	67 (57%)	–
9 Raúl García de Haro F	6.4	90'	–	–	–	19 (15%)	1
7 Jon Moncayola M	6.2	90'	–	–	–	48 (39%)	2
1 Sergio Herrera G	6.0	90'	–	–	–	19 (14%)	–
14 Rubén García M	5.9	60'	–	–	–	17 (13%)	2
22 Flavien Boyomo D	5.9	60'	–	–	–	29 (27%)	3
24 Alejandro Catena D	5.8	90'	–	–	–	50 (43%)	–
29 Asier Osambela M	5.8	5'	–	–	1	2 (1%)	–
27 Iñigo Arguibide D	5.6	85'	–	–	–	19 (17%)	–
48 Rockson Yeboah D	5.4	30'	–	–	–	20 (20%)	–
23 Abel Bretones D	5.0	90'	–	–	–	28 (22%)	3

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Confidence Low (41%)

At a glance

Our lean

Alaves or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.9%

Both teams to score

46%

Over 2.5 goals

38%

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Alaves

DLLWW

Osasuna

DLLLW

Last 3 meetings Alaves · 0W 2D 1L

Match summary

Alaves will host Osasuna in a La Liga matchup that promises to be competitive. Both teams have shown mixed form in recent matches, with Alaves scoring 10 goals in their last five games, while Osasuna has netted 8 in the same span. Defensively, Alaves has conceded 9 goals, compared to Osasuna's 7. Set pieces and midfield control will likely be crucial, as both teams have a tendency to struggle against quick transitions. The outcome will hinge on which side can capitalize on their scoring opportunities more effectively.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

41%

45%

Draw

32%

45%

Away

27%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Osasuna goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	13	9	5	2
1	12	15	6	2	1
2	9	8	4	1
3	4	3	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Alaves goals · most likely 1–1 (14.9%)

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Players in form

Alaves

L. Boyé 4 gls

M. Díaz 3 gls

Osasuna

A. Budimir 5 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

32%

Away Win

27%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

33%

1.5

67%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

32%

Away Win

27%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

60% Home (No Draw) 40% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

19% Home Win by 2+ 10% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

41% Home Scores More 32% Equal Goals 27% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

33%

1.5

67%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

13%

21%

29%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.6%	8.8%	5.1%	1.7%	0.4%
1	11.9%	14.9%	6.4%	2.1%	0.5%
2	8.5%	8.3%	4.0%	1.3%	0.3%
3	3.5%	3.4%	1.7%	0.5%	0.1%
4	1.1%	1.1%	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

79%

1.5

21%

95%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

45%

34%

16%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

58%

1.5

42%

83%

2.5

17%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

26%

31%

26%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Alaves	Draw	Osasuna
Alaves	22.4%	4.3%	1.6%
Draw	17.9%	22.0%	13.4%
Osasuna	1.8%	3.7%	12.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

65%

1.5

35%

87%

2.5

13%

96%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

29%

36%

22%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

62%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

93%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

38%

37%

18%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

71%

0.5

29%

95%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

87%

1.5

13%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Alaves vs Osasuna

0 Alaves Wins

2 Draws

1 Osasuna Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
05 Apr 2026	Alaves	2 - 2	Osasuna
20 Dec 2025	Osasuna	3 - 0	Alaves
24 May 2025	Alaves	1 - 1	Osasuna

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Alaves — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Athletic Club	D	0 - 0
15 Sep	H Valencia	L	0 - 1
12 Sep	A Racing Santander	L	2 - 1
06 Sep	H Osasuna	W	5 - 2
28 Aug	H Villarreal	W	1 - 0

Osasuna — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Rayo Vallecano	D	1 - 1
16 Sep	A Atletico Madrid	L	4 - 0
12 Sep	H Espanyol	L	0 - 2
06 Sep	A Alaves	L	5 - 2
31 Aug	H Getafe	W	1 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Alaves

Formation: 3-1-4-2 Coach: Quique Sánchez Flores

1 Sivera

17 Jonny

16 Koski

14 Tenaglia

8 Blanco

21 Rebbach

10 Aleñá

19 Ibáñez

7 Pérez

9 Díaz

15 Boyé

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Sivera	G
14	N. Tenaglia	D
16	V. Koski	D
17	Jonny	D
8	Antonio Blanco	M
7	Angel Pérez	M
19	Pablo Ibáñez	M
10	Carles Aleñá	M
21	A. Rebbach	M
15	L. Boyé	F
9	M. Díaz	F

Substitutes

24	Selu Diallo	M
23	C. Benavídez	M
3	Yusi	D
6	Guevara	M
29	Izei Hernández	F
20	A. Manas	F
12	Hugo Novoa	F
27	X. Olaiz	D
13	A. Giménez	G
22	Miguel Rodríguez	F
4	Denis Suárez	M
2	N. Valentini	D

Osasuna

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Luis Miguel Ramis

1 Herrera

23 Bretones

22 Boyomo

24 Catena

27 Arguibide

16 Gómez

8 Muñoz

7 Moncayola

14 García

17 Budimir

9 García

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Sergio Herrera	G
27	Íñigo Arguibide	D
24	Catena	D
22	F. Boyomo	D
23	Abel Bretones	D
14	Rubén García	M
7	Moncayola	M
8	Iker Muñoz	M
16	Moi Gómez	M
9	Raúl García	F
17	A. Budimir	F

Substitutes

30	Asier Bonel	F
20	R. Del Castillo	M
21	Jonathan Dubasin	F
26	Mauro Echegoyen	M
13	Aitor Fernández	G
18	Raul Moro	F
29	Asier Osambela	M
15	Diego Rico	D
35	U. Santos	D
6	Lucas Torró	M
48	R. Yeboah	D
11	Kike Barja	F